More MMT support coming from the Fed's own research, this time from the Board of Governors. The abstract reveals the most significant findings:
"A fundamental tenet of investment theory and the traditional theory of monetary policy
transmission is that investment expenditures by businesses are negatively affected by
interest rates. Yet, a large body of empirical research offer mixed evidence, at best, for a
substantial interest-rate effect on investment. In this paper, we examine the sensitivity of
investment plans to interest rates using a set of special questions asked of CFOs in the
Global Business Outlook Survey conducted in the third quarter of 2012. Among the
more than 500 responses to the special questions, we find that most firms claim to be
quite insensitive to decreases in interest rates, and only mildly more responsive to interest
rate increases. Most CFOs cited ample cash or the low level of interest rates, as
explanations for their own insensitivity. We also find that sensitivity to interest rate
changes tends to be lower among firms that do not report being concerned about working
capital management as well as those that do not expect to borrow over the coming year.
Perhaps more surprisingly, we find that investment is also less interest sensitive among
firms expecting greater revenue growth. These findings seem to be corroborated by a
cursory meta-analysis of average hurdle rates drawn from firm-level surveys at different
times over the past 30 years, which exhibit no apparent relation to market interest rates."
As Warren, Scott and Mike have been saying, fiddling with rates has a mostly neutral effect on the macroeconomy, since rates changes merely transfer purchasing power between lenders and borrowers. It seems that the Fed, and the CFO's that they surveyed, agreed. Also, farther down in the paper it was good to see them finding that income/revenue matters more than borrowing rates.
Full paper here
2 comments:
Boom. That's a good one.
Another Fed study that supports the post- and neo-keynesian view.
Among Keynesians, the seminal work is that of Steven Fazzari (a former prof and co-author of Randy Wray)
http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/ppb9.pdf
The study shows that investment decisions by firms is influenced by sales and cash flow, not cost of capital/interest rates.
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