One of the more entertaining robust empirical observations in economics is the inability of the consensus to forecast recessions. However, we need to move beyond name-calling, and accept that this tells us something about recessions. From the perspective of post-Keynesian economics, an inability to forecast the timing of recessions is roughly what one should expect. Since recessions are the most significant part of the cycle, this inability calls into question naive beliefs that economics can be “scientific” in the same manner as short-term weather forecasting.…Bond Economics
The Track Record Of Recession Forecasting
Brian Romanchuk
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