Saturday, March 26, 2016

Federal deficit is going up again. Up $40 billion versus last year.

The Fedeal deficit is growing again. It's up $40 billion versus the same time last year.

Federal deficit
Deficit $469b vs $427b in 2015

I aleady predicted way back last October that the deficit was going to start expading again this year. You heard it hear on MNE first. Just remmber that when later on in the year the media will be reporting a growing deficit. It was here where you first learned about it.

What are the "deficit is too small crowd" going to say? Will they ever change their tune? Never, I predict. They have bee wrong all along with their recession call and we have been right all along.

By the way, all this information can be gleaned off the Daily Treasury Statement of which, I have become an expert at analyzing. There's simply nothing like it. It is by far the most prescient, up to date, leading data that exists and practically no one knows about it.

Get my video couse on Understanding the Daily Treasury Statement. It's only $99 bucks and well worth it.

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Chance_Nation said...

Aren't the "deficit is too small" folks just saying that it is too small from a perspective of fulfilling full employment?

Michael Norman said...

They have been forecasting recession for three years because they have been looking at the deficit and not flows. Furthermore, the unrate has come down by half in the time that the deficits has shrunk by 67%. Their analysis is wrong, but because it's Mosler who says it, no one will challenge him. I've been challenging him and my forecasts and the forecasts here have been very accurate.

Footsoldier said...

It's a very interesting arguement Mike and one that I am very interested in.

However, there's so much more to it than the Unrate being down and the deficit being down. Surely there can be a number of reasons for that ?

Unfortunately, nobody will be able to a side by side analysis on both view points until you become rich enough that you don't need to sell it.

In the end I can't see there being that much difference between the two once the analysis has been done. Both are still MMT after all ?

Ben Johannson said...

Mike is correct Warren has been overly pessimistic for a number of years. The lesson to draw (for now) is

1) Mike is right and headline spending has been sufficient to keep the country out of recession,

2) growth under this condition is virtually nil; while disemployment has fallen no upward pressure on wages is present indicating major failure in establishing necessary effective demand.

3) deficits significantly in excess of foreign sector net flows contribute to faster growth by reducing proportion of money supply lost to tax leakage.

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