Sunday, March 20, 2016

Prediction Markets update

HRC-Trump. Clinton wins.

Election Betting Odds

Odds Checker


Predict It

Iowa Electronic Markets


Malmo's Ghost said...


Those are the same places that had Rubio winning only a month or so back.

They're worthless this election cycle.

John said...


The infighting within the GOP is only going to get more bitter and more nasty. That's going to play badly come the election. I can't think of anything I've ever agreed with John McCain about, but I do agree with his assessment about the choice between Trump and Cruz: death by lethal injection or death by electric chair. And that's coming from the man who chose the most imbecilic politician in the history of American politics.

Unfortunately that means President Hillary. I don't know enough about the election cycle to say, but is there any possibility of someone like Bloomberg entering the contest at this late stage as an independent or at the upcoming GOP convention and upending both Trump and Cruz?

Clinton will thrash both Cruz and Trump. For various reasons, someone like Bloomberg could beat Clinton. Republicans will vote for him (no Republican will vote for Clinton) and he'd take a huge chunk of the Democrat vote.

Malmo's Ghost said...


I think you need to differentiate the Republican electorate from its leaders in the Establishment. IMHO most Republican voters, given the choice between Trump or Hillary, will go 99% Trump, no matter what the Establishment hacks say. Trump will also get the lion's share of disgruntled swing voters, not to mention the remaining blue dog dems. Trump will also have a better than average shot in the northeast and certainly the rust belt states. In short Trump is the only Republican that can obliterate the so called blue wall, which if he does will give him an electoral landslide.

As for Cruz, he would be DOA at the general election. His wacko religion will get him nailed to the cross vis a vis the MSM. He has no chance whatsoever against Hillary.