Sunday, March 20, 2016

Stock picks over last six months +62%. S&P up 8.8%.

Here are my stock picks over the last six months. I buy according to a value selection method that I perfected and have been using for the past 10 years. It's also what I am going to be teaching in my course next Friday.

In addition, I use MMT principles to tell me when to buy and most importantly, to determine how conditions will be going forward. This allows me to fade the usual hysteria (both up and down) and all the flawed analysis.

As you can see, I am up 62.2% while the S&P is only up 8.8%.

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David Munro said...

Interesting statistical analysis Mike.

Since the S&P return is based on one x notional (i.e. no leverage), your performance should also be viewed under the assumption of no leverage instead of the 11x leverage used in your example.

Assuming 1/11th of your capital is invested in each security, so that you have invested your entire equity risk capital with no leverage, your return is 62.16% divided by 11 or 5.65%. That falls somewhat short of the 8.8% generated by the S&P. I’d be happy to look at it differently if you would like to provide different statistics.

Michael Norman said...

OMG...rookie mistake. Thanks.

It's just getting going. These investments tend to be very contrarian as value investments usually are. They were underwater for a while. Let's wait a bit, but thanks again for pointing that out.