Friday, April 7, 2017

Kyle Mizokami — Asia's Biggest Nightmare: A U.S.-China War in North Korea


Syria is not the big deal, or even Iran. It's Russia and China's borders — Ukraine, the South China Sea, and North Korea. These are red lines, the crossing of which will lead to hostilities.
Chinese military intervention in a North Korean collapse scenario is practically a certainty. At the same time, China has repeatedly stated that U.S. military forces entering North Korea would be intolerable, and yet U.S. forces regularly train to do just that. The reality is that South Korea, as capable as it is, may not have a military large enough to handle all contingencies. In such cases the power-projection capability of the U.S. military would be essential. China famously intervened in the fall of 1950 as U.S. and South Korean forces crossed the Yalu River. In the event of a North Korean collapse, barring any agreement between the two countries ahead of time, a military confrontation between the United States and China appears likely....
The National Interest
Asia's Biggest Nightmare: A U.S.-China War in North Korea
Kyle Mizokami, cofounder of the defense and security blog Japan Security Watch

Also

How Russia Will Respond to America's Missile Strike in Syria
Dave Majumdar, defense editor for The National Interest

1 comment:

Bob said...

There is a possibility of a unified Korea and a withdrawal of US forces from the peninsula. NK is an obstacle to peace in the region and no longer serves China's interest. The task of rebuilding NK can fall on China or on SK, or perhaps be collaborative. I don't believe China is interested in propping up the North and shouldering a humanitarian crisis on its own.

A continuation of the stand-off is not possible because NK is attempting to extend the range of its nuclear deterrent. This will not be allowed, and I suspect that China and the US are in agreement on that point.