Tuesday, June 12, 2018

Tom Luongo — Trump Dangles Wooden Carrots at Russia over Crimea


Typically good analysis and assessment from Tom Luongo.

Strategic Culture Foundation
Trump Dangles Wooden Carrots at Russia over Crimea
Tom Luongo

See also

Also good.

DJT read this right. Brilliant on many levels. Even if this is all he accomplishes, he has secured his legacy and may emerge in historical reflection as a great president.
But this summit between what is surely the oddest couple in modern diplomatic history may well launch the most serious effort yet to end the U.S.-North Korean conflict.
To this I would add that a big reason that this is happening is that Kim and Trump are alike in key respects, enabling them to sense that a deal was in the making. 

For example, notice the dismissive way that DJT treated the other G-7 leaders and how he treats Kim, Xi and Putin. And it is not that they are fellow "authoritarians" either. This gives credence to the "great man" theory of history.
US Public Being Misled on Trump-Kim Summit
Gareth Porter

30 comments:

Detroit Dan said...

I'm not a believer in the "Great Man" theory of history. Usually someone will step up to meet the moment -- and who it is is largely an accident, though the moment itself is fated.

Also, there appears to be a typo in the post where it reads:

See also

Also good.

Noah Way said...

Good move by Trump, likely doomed to failure by the shadow government / deep state. Aside from the US having zero credibility.

Tom Hickey said...

"Also good" is about Gareth Porter's post that follows.

I am not a subscriber to one shoe fits all theories other than in the natural sciences. Generally all theories capture significant points that don't fit easily into a single theory.

This is consistent with the dialectical method.

Categorical thinking is appropriate to certain areas and dialectical thinking to other. History is better suited to the dialectical approach.

What is important here is not whether the great man theory of history is correct but whether DJT subscribes to it. I think there is good reason to assume he does, at least implicitly if not explicitly.

Tom Hickey said...

Good move by Trump, likely doomed to failure by the shadow government / deep state. Aside from the US having zero credibility.

What most American commentators apparently miss is that this is not chiefly about the US at all. Indeed, most are making fools of themselves.

DJT basically indicated to Kim that he is stepping out of the way and making room for Kim to what Kim wants to do, which is make peace with SK and open up the north. This will also open up the path for Kim to become a player on the world stage, a role he wants to play eventually.

The US doesn't have to do much in this other than stay in the background and make space. Kim will welcome American investment for two reasons. First, payback for DJT opening the way, and secondly as a counterbalance of NK's two huge neighbors, China and Russia. NK needs good relations with all three for strategic balance.

It was not for nothing that DJT marveled at the NK beaches and how they would make great sites for building out.

If DJT can pull this off — and there will be huge opposition, it will go down in history as a world-historical moment in the historical dialectic. Categorical thinkers cannot fathom this.

Ironically, this was presaged by Obama's 2014 "Cuban thaw," but DJT chose to reverse that.

Tom Hickey said...

Here is the "action trailer" DJT says he showed to Kim on an iPad.

https://youtu.be/aYsaC2CADs0

lastgreek said...

But what about the weapons contractors? You ever think of that, Tom?!

Detroit Dan said...

Well said, Tom!

Trump, of course, is just an opportunist. If he does an about face on Iran or Russia, THEN I'll be impressed.

lastgreek said...

Trump, of course, is just an opportunist.

That and he's a conman ... and he has no shame.

U.S. Weighs Expanding Military Role in Yemen War

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-weighs-expanding-military-role-in-yemen-war-1528064393



Tom Hickey said...

But what about the weapons contractors? You ever think of that, Tom?!

Defense industry stocks down on the news.

Tom Hickey said...

If he does an about face on Iran or Russia, THEN I'll be impressed.

Well, he already shocked everyone by saying that Russia should be back in the G-8. But we'll probably have to wait and see about the Trump-Putin summit.

Could be a resumption of hot war in eastern Ukraine before that, though. The Ukies have been moving military by the cease-fire up to the contact line and shelling eastern Ukraine with prohibited artillery, as well as conducting probes. Forcing Putin to take action in Ukraine would effectively blow up any plans Trump might have to improve relations with Russia.

Tom Hickey said...

That and he's a conman ... and he has no shame.

U.S. Weighs Expanding Military Role in Yemen War


Not really. Trump is is a delicate relationship not only with the establishment but also the military and intel services.

NK is really the first big break he has made where he lets it all hang out. There's already a fire storm at home over this.

Trump has owned casinos and is therefore well acquainted with the underworld. The Mafia is nothing compared to the combined establishment.

He is also a wily New Yorker.

Don't underestimate him.

Actually, Scott Adams is about the only one that has read DJT correctly right from the very start, and he has explained how he has done it by understanding psychology and persuasion.

Dave said...

Trump handled this like he was trying to sell time shares to a tourist family in Aruba.

This is persuasion? This is a great man?

At the end of the day Kim knows Western capital is dying to get into his kingdom.. He also knows that Koreans want to be reunited. Thiese were the carrots he dangled to get what he wanted, international recognition and an equal stage with the American President. He got it all and agreed to give nothing. HE is the true great persuader. He is the great salesman. Very impressive. Remember NK called Trump a dotard. They knew he could be played. Game, set, match.

Trump knew he needed a public relations win because he is getting crushed at home. So he gave up a lot hoping to get something? (Who knows what) in return, maybe in the future. Doesn’t matter because Trump will spin anything as a win. Typical Trump, he is vague on details. But Fox and other outlets will spin this as a win because they are propaganda outlets. And his base will fall in line, although that base is shrinking (dems are winning everywhere right now)

Maybe Kim will agree to stop nuclear tests. Maybe he will open his borders, invite western business in, etc. Maybe he will stop enslaving his people.

Or maybe he won’t. Nothing in this deal says he has to do anything. He holds all the cards.

If Obama did this deal, he would be impeached in a week. Just sayin

Matt Franko said...

“because he is getting crushed at home”

His poll numbers are up...

Michael Norman said...

"Well, he already shocked everyone by saying that Russia should be back in the G-8.

Yeah, then he levied new sanctions on Russia.

Tom Hickey said...

Yeah, then he levied new sanctions on Russia.

Yes.

The NK game is far from over. Trump will have to balance his initial position to mollify the firestorm domestically.

It's all political kabuki. The respective leaders understand this.

Matt Franko said...

“Yeah, then he levied new sanctions on Russia.”

Mike this is apparently the dialectic method that Tom points out above... or paradoxical thinking from Trump... I think it applies to when we are dealing with people ... some people are apparently comfortable maintaining dissonant views or beliefs or even revel in it... it is imo anti-science...

Matt Franko said...

Here Mike Tom says here:

“Categorical thinking is appropriate to certain areas and dialectical thinking to other.”

The “zombies” are always in the latter category of thinking... so they will lose munnie imo...

Matt Franko said...

Probably a good strategy to always fade a trader who is a dialectic...

Matt Franko said...

There is apparently a whole method to it:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dialectical_materialism

Matt Franko said...

Buchanan on with Ingram explains Crimea from the Trump pov accurate imo (I voted for Buchanan/Trump ie I’m qualified to assess):

https://youtu.be/JMxJMBGk1ic

Tom Hickey said...



Hegel on dialectical thinking. Hegel believe that he invented a new method.

But dialectical thinking is ancient in the East.

Dialectical Thinking: Chinese vs. Western Style

Dialectical thinking is similar to holistic thinking. Hegel: The truth is the whole.

Categorical thinking is partial since it is from a particular POV involving cognitive-affective bias.

The purpose of scientific method is to reduce or eliminate subjectivity in the interest of objectivity, but technical language is based on ordinary language as the basis of thinking, and ordinary language is both context-dependent and culture-dependent.

In addition, recent research in cognitive science, by Antonio Damasio in particular, shows that feeling (affect) is foundational and cannot be disentangled from reason, as 18th century rationalism supposed, and 18th century rationalism dominates thinking in the Anglo-American sphere and it grounds the 18th century view of bourgeois liberalism.

Not that this view was original with the 19th century Enlightenment. It is also foundational in Aristotle, and Aquinas, who followed Aristotle and called him "the Philosopher" as he called Paul "the Apostle."

Dialectical thinking was also found in Plato, whose work some have viewed as close to Eastern views, and I agree with this reading.

Not to diss Aristotle, Aquinas, 18th c. thinkers, etc. but simply to point out that their views are part of a whole and need to be complemented by balancing views in the ongoing quest for complete knowledge that can never end without transcending gross consciousness.

Matt Franko said...

“Categorical thinking is partial since it is from a particular POV involving cognitive-affective bias“

It’s not partial if you are separating true from false.... iow if someone were to accuse me of being biased towards the truth I would have to agree...

This is how these morons who go all around saying “theyre printing money and it’s going to be a hyperinflation!” then prices collapse and these people don’t change their thinking...

It’s an inferior way of thinking from a material systems perspective... these people can be faded every time...

Matt Franko said...

Tom these morons are just maintaining the dialectic...

Matt Franko said...

And if it’s primary in the east it would help explain why the east is a shithole...

Matt Franko said...

Look at dialectic NoKo; no swanky beachfront hotel/casinos anywhere...

Tom Hickey said...

Sorry, Matt, but you are speaking out of your field here. That is, you are not qualified.

Not that you can't become qualified, but that will require more study than you have done and more thought than you have put in.

Tom Hickey said...

And if it’s primary in the east it would help explain why the east is a shithole...

But not in the larger scheme of things, which is invisible to those in gross consciousness and presume that reality is essentially physical.

There are people that believe otherwise.

That there are those that testify that they don't believe but know. Their lives and influence is testimony to that.

Matt Franko said...

“you are speaking out of your field here. That is, you are not qualified. ”

Might have to give you that one for now.... ;)

Matt Franko said...

“presume that reality is essentially physical.”

Well the physical world is physical... if the issue at hand is a physical one (like provisioning systems) like we discuss here adequate food, shelter, proper distribution, etc then imo you want to think categorically.. .

Tom Hickey said...

Well the physical world is physical... if the issue at hand is a physical one (like provisioning systems) like we discuss here adequate food, shelter, proper distribution, etc then imo you want to think categorically.. .

Yes, but if the world is only physical, why doesn't the law of the jungle apply? There are no norms in nature. They are imposed. Are they purely subjective. Are they also consequential, in which case what criteria are used to assess outcomes and who decides the criteria and on what basis? Is there something transcendental also involved?

If the world is just a physical system, why aren't there social engineers running things based on known scientific laws?

Categorical logic is a tool. Modal logic is another tool. Fuzzy logic is another. Dialectical logic is also a tool. They are all tools in a tool box to be used as appropriate.

The concept of liberalism is founded on dialectic, that is, freedom of thought and expression, free inquiry, open debate, and democratically arrived at solution through compromise that bring together different POVs. Categorical logic at this level results in the attempt to impose one solution, e.g, using the tyranny of the majority, to suppress dissent and repress minority interests and views.