Sunday, July 12, 2020

My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes.

Emerging cases of Covid-19 reinfection suggest herd immunity is wishful thinking.


It seems like you can catch Covid-19 a second time, and it may be worst than the first. 

“Wait. I can catch Covid twice?” my 50-year-old patient asked in disbelief. It was the beginning of July, and he had just tested positive for SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, for a second time — three months after a previous infection.

Vox

29 comments:

lastgreek said...

Just like colds, eh?

What viruses other than the rhinoviruses cause colds?

Right! The common human corona viruses :(

Would not hold my breath for any effective vaccines. Therapeutic drugs are best bet.

And masks work. It has to do with viral loads. So wear the mask in public spaces -- even in nudist colonies :)



Matt Franko said...

Sounds like the test is inaccurate...

hoonose said...

Second infections if possible short term are uncommon. We would know by now from global experience. Of course longer term it may become more common.

Peter Pan said...

Covid, like the postman, always rings twice.

Matt Franko said...

https://medium.com/@vernunftundrichtigkeit/coronavirus-why-everyone-was-wrong-fce6db5ba809

“ So if we do a PCR corona test on an immune person, it is not a virus that is detected, but a small shattered part of the viral genome. The test comes back positive for as long as there are tiny shattered parts of the virus left. Correct: Even if the infectious viruses are long dead, a corona test can come back positive, because the PCR method multiplies even a tiny fraction of the viral genetic material enough [to be detected].”

NeilW said...

Sigh,

In which case a vaccine is impossible - like with the common cold.

Which means there is no end to the current situation and we have to decide what to do.

Given that there are no excess deaths on the under 40s - the majority of the population - and the median age of deaths is over 80, we have to decide whether the young have there lives crippled by this fantasy that we can eradicate a virus by authoritarian means.

This virus is age related. Why would you want it next year rather than this?

Peter Pan said...

In the olden days, the flu would sometimes kill children, yet no one panicked. We called such tragedies "life".

Andrew Anderson said...

we have to decide whether the young have there lives crippled by this fantasy that we can eradicate a virus by authoritarian means. NeilW

Apparently, many of the unemployed don't miss their wage slavery so long as they have an adequate income.

That is surely a rebuke to the JG fanatics who, no doubt, are shielded (e.g. wealth, tenure, etc.) from the policies they would inflict on others.

lastgreek said...

This Week In Virology (TWiV), a science show by scientists, free either thru...

https://www.microbe.tv/ or apple (etc.) podcasts.

TWiV 638: Do, there is no try - July 12, 2020

Daniel Griffin provides a clinical update on COVID-19, then Viviana Simon joins to review serological assays developed at Mt. Sinai for SARS-CoV-2 infection, tracking the outbreak in NYC, and listener questions.

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-638/

TWiV 637: Clearing the fog of ignorance - July 9, 2020

In this episode, approval of an Ad5 vectored SARS-CoV-2 vaccine for the military in China, description and clinical trials of a Novavax vaccine joining Operation Warp Speed, prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 in Spain, shedding and transmissibility of the virus, and listener email.

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-637/

TWiV 635: Mask hysteria - July 5, 2020

Daniel Griffin provides a clinical update on COVID-19, then we review SARS-CoV-2 shedding in children, how to resume school safely, the need for widespread testing and wearing face masks, and much more, including listener email.

https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-635/

lastgreek said...

The NHL moves north for its restart, shifting to Canada as U.S. struggles with pandemic

As the NHL tries to resume play and crown a Stanley Cup champion by early October, it is also shifting its operations to Canada. According to a pair of health experts, that might give the NHL the best shot among the North American professional sports leagues to complete the season

“I don’t know what greater indictment you need of the United States’ response to the virus than the NHL picking up its puck and retreating to Canada,” said Zach Binney, an epidemiologist at Oxford College of Emory University. “That was a smart decision. That was a very smart decision.”


Btw, hockey should not be played south of the Mason-Dixon Line. Too hot for Eskimo pie' sake :|

hoonose said...

Peter Pan

If the Covid 19 virus was killing kids today instead of oldsters, even Trump's base would have wised up. And probably quicker if somehow they were mostly white and rural kids.

lastgreek said...

Also, hoonose, what does it say about a society that considers its oldsters expendable...

Peter Pan said...

Evolution considers the elderly expendable.

Every time you fail to wear a mask, a boomer dies.

Peter Pan said...

If the virus were killing kids, and Canadians found out that 80 percent of deaths occurred in kindergartens, Canada's politicians would be held accountable.

Calgacus said...

AA: Apparently, many of the unemployed don't miss their wage slavery so long as they have an adequate income.

That is surely a rebuke to the JG fanatics who, no doubt, are shielded (e.g. wealth, tenure, etc.) from the policies they would inflict on others.


Yes, JG advocates are shielded by their inhabiting the real world, and crafting policies that can work there. This always fails to measure up to magnificent fantasies and impossible daydreams. Like providing everyone with an adequate income - that nobody has to work to get. A world where everyone wins the lottery! A world of masters "with adequate income" with no slaves whose labor the income buys - whose labor gives real world meaning to the "income", which is a fantasy and daydream without it.

But we JG fanatics at least devise things that would and have improved the real world. Not dopey, logically impossible fantasies that would make and have made it worse if attempted.

Again, logical consistency is a place to start to wake up, if one wants to wake up. Like not rejecting parts of a book, religion or person that one claims to believe in.

Andrew Anderson said...

Like not rejecting parts of a book, religion or person that one claims to believe in.

Unlike you apparently, I've read the entire Bible and have noted that working for wages should be the exception, not the norm for citizens.

Calgacus said...

You don't seem to have read the section I have referred to, that I have been trying to get you to make one relevant comment on, for years. Whether it should be the exception or not is besides the point, which is to act according to the circumstances. Jesus says what should be done in this case which you call exceptional. But do you agree with him or not on what should be done?

Being beat up on a highway is the exception, not the norm. Yet Jesus praised the Good Samaritan for helping the traveler. Did he really mean that the traveler should have gotten a lecture about the evils of usury and how he shouldn't have been traveling, but living off the farm which he would have had if not for the evils of banks and deposit insurance?

Is your stance one that Jesus praised throughout the New Testament- or denounced?

Matt Franko said...

“ Yet Jesus praised the Good Samaritan for helping the traveler. ”

Yo, The Samaritan wasn’t an Israelite....if the guy was dead, the Israelite Scribe would have had to Burn his clothing, shave his whole body of every hair, quarantine himself for two weeks taking baths every day.... etc... a real big hassle and if the guy was dead there was nothing he could do for him anyway... plus he had to get going to record the births in Jericho that week if the births weren’t recorded within 1 week the baby’s salvation was in jeopardy... etc.

It’s was a Mish mash of rules....

It was easy for the Samaritan to instead employ judgement in the situation because he wasn’t under a straight jacket of rote memorized strict Israelite rules of zombie behavior and conduct...

Israelites were not trained to employ judgement but rather they were trained for strict compliance with rules....

It didn’t work....

Make an adjustment....

Judgement is not compliance... two different concepts...

Matt Franko said...

Here:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corpse_uncleanness

HUGE f-ing hassle... HUGE.... you have to kill a cow or wtf too for crying out loud....

Probably best to just say fuck it and walk around the guy if you were up against all of that shit if the guy was dead...

Rules based systems.... they don’t work....

Matt Franko said...

MMT Zombie Rule: “JG No UBI!”

Real world: unprecedented global pandemic people prevented from going to a job...

MMT: “were going to have to redefine what a job is....”

LOL!

God forbid somebody employs some judgement....

Hey maybe the Israelite who walked around the guy left for dead could have told Jesus that he was going to have to redefine what “help” is...

When your rule based system fails all you have to do is redefine the words appearing in your rule .... then you don’t have to change your rule and you can still appear correct....

NeilW said...

MMT: “were going to have to redefine what a job is....”

The Job definition is the same as before "deploy your hours for the benefit of others - so that you entitled to the output of others who are doing the same". That way you don't get paid twice - once consuming your own hours for your own benefit and once getting the output of others.

People will carry you for a while, but eventually they will demand their pound of flesh. And when they do, schemes aren't amended. They are cancelled in a fit of pique. Hence why unemployment benefit failed. Trying to use a money illusion to work around that won't work either. People instinctively know when others are not pulling their weight and getting away with it.

JG breaks the resentment/retribution cycle inherent in income schemes.

The Job Guarantee maintains people's income *and* provides an army of workers that can be deployed against any private firm that tries to raise prices. The expectation of that keeps prices down and favours quantity adjusters over price adjusters. Which is what drives productivity forward.

Matt Franko said...

Well why don’t they just say “hmm, we didn’t expect this type of thing...” and just make an adjustment to their policy like competent people do every day?

People are being PREVENTED from going to their jobs... just make a adjustment to the policy to include income support in these circumstances and perhaps a bonus to those remaining “essential” for the duration of the lock out...

It’s disrespectful to the idea of a job to redefine a “job” as being paid to stay home and playing video games or watching Netflix...

Peter Pan said...

Nancy Pelosi said no to a temporary UBI.
No UBI, no job, and no ice cream for you.

NeilW said...

"People are being PREVENTED from going to their jobs"

That's a job. Just like "Gardening Leave".

The problem is too narrow a definition of what a job is. We're in odd times where the job is to stay at home. And it's been hard work for the extroverts.

Andrew Anderson said...

Just as long as they are under your thumb, eh Neil?

Control freak much?

NeilW said...

The person who grows your carrots is the person who determines what you will do to get them - because you don't have the skills to grow the carrots yourself.

That's the reality of the world. It doesn't owe you a living, You are entitled to nothing. You have to endear yourself to others if you want them to support you. And you're doing a terrible job so far.

Peter Pan said...

The reality of the world is that it doesn't owe you a job guarantee.
The very sentiment expressed by Neil, ensures that MMT prescriptions will remain a pipe dream.

Indeed, MMT advocates are doing their best to endear themselves to others. Sometimes they direct their efforts towards persuading ordinary people. Sometimes they try to ingratiate themselves with people who hold power. Most of the time, they are content to preach to the choir.

The last thing you should do Andrew, is endear yourself to others.

Calgacus said...

The reality of the world is that it doesn't owe you a job guarantee.

Of course it does. According to every moral/social/economic system ever used by humans.
According to the meaning of the concept "owe". According to the reality of the world where good things don't magically appear by wishing, whether by individuals or even nations (the basis of the UBI farce.) Resentment is a beneficial force here, but it is not a fundamental explanation.

As has been understood for ages, imposing a monetary economy without a job guarantee is criminally insane. For instance, Fichte noted in 1800 that such a person kept from gainful employment has every right to take what he needs from the government or even others - in self-defense.

Because many people make things out to be far more complicated than they really are - and because some won't sit still for five minutes to follow an argument - and far more because people's minds have been fuddled with mountains of nonsense about economics - insufficiently many people have a strong enough logical grasp of what is obvious to ALL "primitive" cultures and fall for various moronic con games instead. But the number is growing by leaps and bounds. The times are very reminiscent of the 1850s-60s or 1920s in the USA. Just before a Great Leap Forward. It'll seem impossible. And then in a moment, guaranteed jobs will be everywhere and everyone will claim they were always for them. That's the way these things always go.

Peter Pan said...

There's a lot of nonsense regarding economics, but this is a disagreement over values.

The Great Leap forward was a catastrophe perpetrated at the behest of a madman.

What passes for a political movement in the US, is comprised of young people intent on virtue signaling.

Polity driven change is nowhere in sight.