Sunday, August 9, 2020

Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz - As Covid-19 persists around the world, death is not the only outcome to fear

Know one knows for certain what letting Coronavirus running uncontrolled through our society would do? One scenario it could fizzle out after it has killed about 30% of very old people who were about to die anyway. 

It is said that if Lockdowns damage our economies too much, then many more people would die than Covid-19 would ever kill, which may be true, but we don't know for certain. I tend to share the view of Mr. Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, that coronavirus running amok in our society would do far more damage to our economies than the Lockdowns would because people would panic, but again no one knows for sure.

Perhaps, although it’s worth noting that in Australia and the UK a death rate of 1% would imply hundreds of thousands of deaths before the virus burned itself out. Moreover, those who are hospitalised – a significant proportion of Covid-19 patients – will certainly suffer. And even those with more mild disease may not be exempt from long-term harm. While government restrictions are starting to feel onerous, the fact is that we simply do not know enough about this disease to be sure that even the lowest risk is acceptable. We’ve got a handle on short-term, acute issues – the things that we see in a hospital – but we’re still only just discovering what the long-term issues that this disease causes might be.

Unfortunately, the damage that Covid-19 causes is almost certainly not confined entirely to the death rate. We may not know for some time exactly what else it causes, but even now we have enough evidence to know that there are other problems out there. Letting everyone get infected is a strategy that, even ignoring the enormous death toll, could leave us much worse off as a society.

The Guardian 


22 comments:

NeilW said...

"Know one knows for certain what letting Coronavirus running uncontrolled through our society would do?"

We do.

It's called "Sweden".

NeilW said...

Not one single projection of the number of dead in Sweden has been accurate.

Which means all those projection can be discarded - since they fail the basic tests of science.

Once you have a model that can fit Sweden from the base of Sweden at the beginning of the year, then you can forward predict.

Otherwise you are scaremongering, and that is what is doing the damage.

Time to stop it, and follow the *actual* science, not religious leaders with Phds.

Kaivey said...

Sweden is at the beginning of the pandemic like the rest of us; we haven't seen how it will pan out yet.

Kaivey said...

Why Sweden’s COVID-19 Strategy Can’t Work in the U.S.

A lot of people in the US are far too unhealthy compared to Swedes.

Some Americans opposed to lockdown measures look to Sweden for inspiration, which has largely remained open.


But Sweden hasn’t come through the pandemic unscathed.

Sweden’s per capita death rate was 36 per 100,000, which is higher than the United States at 27 and neighboring Denmark at 9.

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/heres-what-happened-in-sweden-and-you-cant-compare-it-to-u-s

Kaivey said...

Sweden opens inquiry into failure of no-lockdown coronavirus strategy - Business Insider

https://www.businessinsider.com/sweden-opens-inquiry-into-coronavirus-strategy-of-no-lockdown-2020-7

Peter Pan said...

Compare Sweden with the UK.

S400 said...

Before comparing death rates check the numbers of each country you are going to compare with in normal times and the numbers under COVID 19 and the then subtract the reported number of COVID 19 deaths. Then you get a picture how well COVID deaths are reported in those countries.

Kaivey said...

New article from the Telegraph today says Sweden’s model was a success, and a recent Daily Mail article says the same. But its too early to draw conclusions, although we have to hope Sweden succeeds because it could be model for other countries, but not maybe the US, it seems.

Britain tried it but the hospitals became overloaded with people suffering from Covid-19, so the UK had to change strategy because people would have been left to die in their homes. I don't think the public would have tolerated it.

NeilW said...

"But its too early to draw conclusions"

Then why is lockdown always a success if it is too early to draw conclusions?

Why quote projection numbers that cannot explain Sweden.

Belief?

NeilW said...

"Britain tried it but the hospitals became overloaded with people suffering from Covid-19"

They never did. That's a lie.

The Nightingale Hospitals built at great expense due to sky high predictions *were never used in any numbers*.

Because the predictions were wrong, as the belief behind them was wrong. Yet we persist with it? Why?

Just like neoliberalism - anchoring and groupthink.

NeilW said...

We're back to JK Galbraith again.

"Faced with the choice between changing one's mind and proving that there is no need to do so, almost everyone gets busy on the proof."

lastgreek said...

Misinformation and de-contextualization: international media reporting on Sweden and COVID-19

https://globalizationandhealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12992-020-00588-x

lastgreek said...

I almost forgot :)

On this day in History Nixon resigned and Ford became president :)

Also, on this day in history the barbaric hordes (an ugly Germanic mix of uncivilized tribes) defeated a large Eastern Roman army at battle of Adrianople (4th century). How? The barbarians were on horses. So, Calvary 1, Infantry 0. Lesson bloody learned the hard way :( (Unfortunately for the Romans, for the next thousand years the barbaric hordes never ceased coming, the latest, and still present, being the Mongolian tribes from the Mongolian Steppes).

Peter Pan said...

S400,

Are you insinuating that some countries are guilty of death stuffing?

Matt Franko said...

“Just like neoliberalism - anchoring and groupthink.”

They have been trained to start with the Thesis FIRST... its right in their doctrine on their methodology....

The cognitive process they have been trained in is PERMANENT.... they will never adjust.... (without RIGOROUS training in a different methodology)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brain_training

“ Cognitive training includes interventions targeted at improving cognitive abilities such as problem-solving, reasoning, attention, executive functions, and working memory. ”

They have been rigorously trained in REASONING.... the process of REASONING starts with a THEORY FIRST....

You have been trained in PROBLEM SOLVING...

They are completely different methodologies...

Matt Franko said...

Which cohort is better trained to administer/ manage matters of material provision working in our institutions?

It’s obviously not the reasoners....

S400 said...

“Are you insinuating that some countries are guilty of death stuffing?“

I’m saying what the chief epidemiologist in Sweden has been saying for months. There’s no one counting method that countries use. They use different methods but the data is then reported as if it can be compared without any adjustments. It can’t.

Peter Pan said...

The chief epidemiologist in Sweden is being polite.
Eventually, the fraudulent nature of some country's death counts will be exposed.

Joe said...

The only real reliable data one can use to judge how many people have died is by comparing total mortality this year to total mortality from previous years on a weekly basis.
From March 15 to July 25, we're around 200k more deaths than expected. The whole numbers-are-inflated-so-hospitals-get-more-money-and-to-make-Trump-look-bad theory has been refuted.

Peter Pan said...

Numbers are being inflated in some countries to keep the hysteria going. It's a cover for incompetent leadership.

Joe said...

Not sure which countries those would be.. No one thinks hysteria covers for incompetent leadership. The opposite is true. Hysteria exacerbates incompetence. The two most incompetent leaders in the world have done the most downplaying.

Peter Pan said...

The #1 country is Belgium and the #1 jurisdiction is the State of New York. Incompetence or fraud is driving this, but not both. The sheep believe what they are told, by "very serious people" no less.