James Holmes — Why the World Should Fear a 'Thucydidean' China

This is an interesting article from the perspective of psychological projection. Professor Holmes projects onto China the behavior of the American Empire asserting its right to global hegemony as "exceptional" and "the indispensable nation" that gets to make the rules.

In comparison China has so far has done very little to project its power, while the US has been encircling China militarily.

Moreover,the Chinese government certainly has not claimed global hegemony as the US did in the Wolfowitz Doctrine. And has the good professor forgotten about the Monroe Doctrine that claimed hemispheric hegemony in 1823 and America's ongoing intrusion in the internal affairs of Latin American countries?

Moreover, the People Liberation Army officers that Holmes quotes are not in a position of authority to speak for the Chinese government on Chinese foreign policy.

Interestingly also, Holmes uses the term "Thucydidean." Certainly he is aware that the Thucydides trap refers to a country in decline going to war with a rising power challenging it to maintain position and that international relations (IR) experts have applied it to the US-China relationship. President Xi was so concerned it was becoming an IR meme that he addressed while in the US, brushing it off as irrelevant in today's world of mutuality.

It appears to be yet another example US pessimism and paranoia.

The National Interest
Why the World Should Fear a 'Thucydidean' China

James Holmes | Professor of Strategy at the U.S. Naval War College

Pepe Escobar — «America Has Lost» in the Philippines

The Asian pivot isn't working so well.

Strategic Culture Foundation
«America Has Lost» in the Philippines

Pepe Escobar

James Petras — Washington’s ‘Pivot to Asia’: A Debacle Unfolding

The real story unfolding is the Philippines. The US overreached.

Petras mentions but doesn't emphasize that something similar is happening in Thailand.

Asian countries realize that the economic future lies with China rather than the US, which is chiefly an Atlantic power allied with Europe, and doesn't have non-white peoples interests at heart. They are getting tired of being used as pawns in the global game, and now face the possibility of getting shut out of China while being treated as US colonies.

James Petras Website
Washington’s ‘Pivot to Asia’: A Debacle Unfolding
James Petras | Professor (Emeritus) of Sociology at Binghamton University in Binghamton, New York and adjunct professor at Saint Mary's University, Halifax, Nova Scotia

Peter Lee — The Price of the Pivot: Scarborough Shoal

The PRC is in a pretty solid position, legality-wise in occupying Scarborough Shoal.

And that means it’s pretty much free to build on it. Even island-build it.

The United States and the Philippines know that.

Losing Scarborough Shoal was the price of the pivot.

It’s just hard to admit it.

Just like losing Crimea was the price of the coup in Ukraine.

And the rise of "radical Islam" was the price of inserting the "freedom fighters" into Afghanistan to counter Russia.

Tradeoffs. Zbig still believe that the tradeoff that created "radical Islam" was worth it.

"Geopolitical economy." I wonder if anyone has modeled it economically. The numbers are huge and growing.

The Unz Review
The Price of the Pivot: Scarborough Shoal
Peter Lee

See also at Unz Review

Trump’s America First Policy: Remarkably Sophisticated

Ilana Mercer

Trump Has A Sound Trade Policy, But Where Will He Get Sound Trade Policy Aides?
Eamonn Fingleton

Mike Whitney — How Putin Blocked the U.S. Pivot to Asia

On February 10, 2007, Vladimir Putin delivered a speech at the 43rd Munich Security Conference that created a rift between Washington and Moscow that has only deepened over time. The Russian President’s blistering hour-long critique of US foreign policy provided a rational, point-by-point indictment of US interventions around the world and their devastating effect on global security. Putin probably didn’t realize the impact his candid observations would have on the assembly in Munich or the reaction of powerbrokers in the US who saw the presentation as a turning point in US-Russian relations. But, the fact is, Washington’s hostility towards Russia can be traced back to this particular incident, a speech in which Putin publicly committed himself to a multipolar global system, thus, repudiating the NWO pretensions of US elites. Here’s what he said: 

“I am convinced that we have reached that decisive moment when we must seriously think about the architecture of global security. And we must proceed by searching for a reasonable balance between the interests of all participants in the international dialogue.” 

With that one formulation, Putin rejected the United States assumed role as the world’s only superpower and steward of global security, a privileged position which Washington feels it earned by prevailing in the Cold War and which entitles the US to unilaterally intervene whenever it sees fit. Putin’s announcement ended years of bickering and deliberation among think tank analysts as to whether Russia could be integrated into the US-led system or not. Now they knew that Putin would never dance to Washington’s tune....

In my view, Whitney gets this essentially correct. It also shows why this is so dangerous and how dangerous it is. Putin would not be able to do this if Russia were not a nuclear state capable of obliterating the Northern Hemisphere, which is the basis of deterrence through mutually assured destruction (MAD). The right wing in the US think that Putin is bluffing and would not actually hit the red button, or that the US can neutralize an attack and prevail in a nuclear war. All I say is that whoever is in charge that John McCain isn't the president of the United States now. President Obama at least seems to be resisting a headlong rush to nuclear oblivion.

Counterpunch
How Putin Blocked the U.S. Pivot to Asia

Mike Whitney

John Helmer — Putin Submarines Surround Australia Within Range Of US Bases – Ray Atomizes Australian Politicians

Some highlights.

The strategic purpose of the new [Australian] submarines, according to the US Pacific Fleet commander, Admiral Harry Harris, is to combine with the US fleet to attack the Chinese Navy and threaten China. Presentations to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (APSI) by a group of US Navy officers and US consultants in Canberra a year ago emphasized that it is US strategy to deploy the proposed new Australian Navy submarines for “strategic effect through offensive operations …by operating forward and up-threat.” Discussion during the presentations identified Russia as a “forward” target, as well as China. “Up-threat” was military jargon for preemptive attack.…

Several years on, the APSI papers reveal that Australian-American targeting of “Putin-Class submarines” extends, not only to China and Russia, but also to Vietnam and possibly Indonesia.…

A US Navy presentation of the flags of the attack submarine fleets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans indicates that much faster growth is planned for the submarine fleets of US allies – Australia, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea – than for Russian allies – China, India, and North Korea.…

The “Vladimir Putin submarines” to which Abbott referred last week are currently operated by the Russian fleet based at Vladivostok. Russian built analogues and domestically modified designs of “Putin class” submarines are also operated by the Chinese and the Indian Navies. All are capable of launching nuclear-armed missiles, some by ballistic trajectory and some by cruise flight. According to a survey of Russian naval experts this week, all three submarine fleets now have the launch capability to strike the bases in Australia on which the US depends for warfighting in the southern hemisphere. 

The Russian plan currently calls for six Borey-class attack submarines – three, the Yury Dolgorukiy, the Vladimir Monomakh (below, left) and the Alexander Nevsky (right) – are already operational. Each armed with 16 intercontinental ballistic missiles, the primary mission of these craft is to attack the continental US and US nuclear bases in the north western hemisphere. By the time all six are deployed in 2018, one is likely to target US bases in Australia. A new Australian submarine fleet moves this targeting up the probability scale from likely to certain.…

Gennady Nechaev, a military analyst at Vzglyad in Moscow, acknowledges that the extent to which Australia is a carrier for US military operations against China and Russia, makes it inevitable that Russia, China and India will deploy counter-measures, particularly against Pine Gap, in central Australia. In this essay Nechaev reviews the growth of Russian, Chinese and Indian aircraft carrier strike forces. He concludes that current Kremlin thinking favours investment in submarines over aircraft carriers. Indian and Chinese calculations are a little different. 

Nechaev is sceptical that the Putin flotilla in the Coral Sea last November was accompanied by a submarine. The Russian Navy declines to comment. Nechaev is more confident that as Australian bases and weapons are expanded for new US strike strategy, they will be countered by Russia, China, and India. 

Also, as the Putin submarines approach firing range, they will be undetectable. This is confirmed by evidence of recent failures by US, UK, Swedish and NATO submarine defence units to find Russian craft off the coast of Scotland, and within the Swedish archipelago.… 

Expect vastly more military spending.

Dances with Bears

Putin Submarines Surround Australia Within Range Of US Bases – Ray Atomizes Australian Politicians

John Helmer

Mike Whitney — Defending Dollar Imperialism

More on geopolitics and geostrategy.

Counterpunch
Defending Dollar Imperialism
Mike Whitney

See also Zbigniew Brzezinski, "A Strategy for Eurasia," at Foreign Affairs (Sep-Oct 1997 issue), reposted at Bill Totten's Weblog here.

Zachary Keck — US Swears Asia Pivot Isn't Dead

Despite the Ukraine crisis and ongoing civil war in Syria, the U.S. swears that the Asia pivot is still on.

That’s the message that Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel is trying to project ahead of a 10-day trip to Asia that begins today with the U.S.-ASEAN Defense Forum in Hawaii.

The Diplomat
US Swears Asia Pivot Isn't Dead
Zachary Keck

Encircling Russia and China.

His meetings in Tokyo are expected to focus on the current talks about redefining the terms of the U.S.-Japan security alliance, which is likely to result in giving Tokyo a larger and more independent role in Asia.

Read permitting the re-arming of Japan.