Fareed Zakaria Woke Up? — Andrei Martyanov

Blowing a lead.

Reminiscence of the Future
Fareed Zakaria Woke Up?
Andrei Martyanov

See also

Checkpoint Asia
Trump Has Lost All Leverage With Iran

Marko Marjanović

Also at CA

Trump Remembers He’s the President, Tells Bolton, Pompeo to Dial It Back on Iran

Erin Banco

China’s State Media Tells Us It Picked the ‘Wrong Rival at the Wrong Time’

Teddy Ng

Paul Robinson — The use of force

Reading them was another of those occasions when I felt a powerful urge to say, ‘Well, duh!’. Putin, we’re told, only uses force when vital interests are at stake and a cost-benefit analysis suggests that benefits will outweigh costs. Of course! What else would you expect? After all, what’s the alternative? To wage war when vital interests are not at stake and when you don’t expect to end up better off? That would be crazy. …

And that’s where this article’s statement of the blindingly obvious becomes quite interesting. For, viewed this way, what this article explains to us is not the conditions under which Putin uses force so much as the conditions under which the West does so – when vital interests aren’t at stake, and when we end up worse off afterwards. Judging by this article, we’ve now become so used to this that anything else apparently comes as a big surprise.

"American exceptionalism."

So the US has become a country that can't keep agreements and acts irrationally. Where is this leading?

Irrussianality
The use of force
Paul Robinson | Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa

James Petras — The Rising Tide of Militarism in the 21st Century: From Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump

US militarism expanded exponentially through the first two decades of the Twenty-First Century, and was embraced by both Democratic and Republican Presidents. The mass media’s hysteria towards President Trump’s increase in military spending deliberately ignores the vast expansion of militarism, in all its facets, under President Obama and his two predecessors, Presidents ‘Bill’ Clinton and George Bush, Jr.

We will proceed in this essay to compare and discuss the unbroken rise of militarism over the past seventeen years. We will then demonstrate that militarism is an essential structural feature of US imperialism’s insertion in the international system.…

Global domination is only possible through military means. Foreign policy elites and military strategists are in general agreement that the quest for domination has been the historical norm. If one powerful country and its allies don't dominate, then another powerful country and its allies will. It's just how these people think. This us the key assumption. It is the given that no one questions.

James Petras Website
The Rising Tide of Militarism in the 21st Century: From Clinton, Bush, Obama and Trump
James Petras | Professor (Emeritus) of Sociology at Binghamton University in Binghamton, New York and adjunct professor at Saint Mary's University, Halifax, Nova Scotia

Sputnik — Sputnik Putin's Top Security Advisor Lays Out Vision of Global Security in 5 Easy StepsPutin's Top Security Advisor Lays Out Vision of Global Security in 5 Easy Steps

In an exclusive interview for Sputnik, Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev offered his assessment of the main threats facing the world, and Russia's plans to deal with them. Given the Security Council's status as an advisory body reporting to the president, Patrushev's word is basically the Kremlin line on national security issues.

Russia and the US face different security issues. Russia views US pursuit of its policy objectives as creating security issues for Russia.

Sputnik
Putin's Top Security Advisor Lays Out Vision of Global Security in 5 Easy Steps

Syria and beyond

David Stockman may be out of paradigm economically, but he gets this largely right.

The Truth About the War in Aleppo (David Stockman) 

Orlov is a keen analyst that writes with humor.

Oops! – A World War! (Dmitry Orlov)

ht The Automatic Earth

Reuters — Russia says U.S. actions threaten its national security

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said on Sunday he had detected increasing U.S. hostility towards Moscow and complained about what he said was a series of aggressive U.S. steps that threatened Russia's national security.

In an interview with Russian state TV likely to worsen already poor relations with Washington, Lavrov made it clear he blamed the Obama administration for what he described as a sharp deterioration in U.S.-Russia ties.

"We have witnessed a fundamental change of circumstances when it comes to the aggressive Russophobia that now lies at the heart of U.S. policy towards Russia," Lavrov told Russian state TV's First Channel.

"It's not just a rhetorical Russophobia, but aggressive steps that really hurt our national interests and pose a threat to our security."

The wake-up call.

The fundamental problem is that in the US view anyone that doesn't do what the US wants is posing a threat to US national security. "You are either with us or you are against us."

Reuters
Russia says U.S. actions threaten its national security
Reporting by Maria Kiselyova; Editing by Andrew Osborn

Sputnik International — New Arms Race: China, US Prepare for Missile Warfare

As these tensions simmer, an op-ed for Asia Times by Bill Gertz points out that China has been stockpiling its missile arsenal for years, over concerns of US aggression.

"Beijing’s arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles has been growing steadily for decades as new systems were fielded in an array of ranges – short, medium and intercontinental," Gertz writes. "Several long-range cruise missiles, capable of carrying nuclear or conventional payloads also are deployed."

In addition, Beijing has secretly developed a hypersonic missile, the DF-ZF glide vehicle, which ascends to the Earth’s upper atmosphere in order to bypass anti-missile defense systems.

As the United States plans to deploy a Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) missile defense system on the Korean peninsula, ostensibly aimed at deterring North Korean aggression, Beijing has been forced to beef up its own missile defenses.

"To develop suitable capabilities of missile defense is necessary for China to maintain national security and improve defense capabilities. It is not targeting any other country or target, nor is it jeopardizing the international strategic equilibrium," Chinese Defense Ministry spokesman Sr. Col. Yang Yujun told reporters last month.…

According to a report in China Military Online, escalations between the two superpowers will lead to the inevitable.

"The problem is not whether the war will break out, but when," the report said. "Our task is to develop the 'trump card' weapon for China before the war."

How's that pivot to Asia working' for ya?

Sputnik International
New Arms Race: China, US Prepare for Missile Warfare

John Feffer — The debate about Trump and foreign policy in the USA

John Feffer argues that Donald Trump is not the peacenik that many people seem to suppose and in contrasting him to Killary, Feffer finds Trump trumps her in aggressiveness in most cases.

Defend Democracy
The debate about Trump and foreign policy in the USA

John Feffer

Paul R. Pillar — Trump Hypes a New ‘War on Terror’

Donald Trump has urged a new “war on terror” that brings back torture and seeks revenge on terrorists’ families, but another problem with the Republican nominee’s approach is his exaggeration of the danger, writes ex-CIA analyst Paul R. Pillar.

Consortium News
Trump Hypes a New ‘War on Terror’

Paul R. Pillar

Dosie.su — China openly offers Russia an alliance against NATO

Events are moving fast. China is apparently not waiting to catch up.

Fort Russ
China openly offers Russia an alliance against NATO
Dosie.su, Antifascist online, August 6, 2016
Translated from Russian by Tom Winter

Also

Today we witnessed an assassination attempt on the head of the Lugansk People’s Republic, Igor Plotnitsky. Plotnitsky was wounded but his life is not in danger. He has even managed to issue a statement in which he accuses the Ukrainian government and the US special forces standing behind it for the attempt on his life. The Speaker of the National Council of the Donetsk People’s Republic, Denis Pushilin, went even further in his commentary. In his opinion, the attempt on the leader of the LPR means that Kiev has “opted for escalation.”

Fort Russ Exclusive: Plotnitsky failed hit means All-Out War

Zheng Yu — China and Russia: Alliance or No Alliance?

Strategic partnership but no alliance.

…neither the Chinese nor Russian governments have the intention to form a military alliance. President Putin has repeatedly stated that an alliance with China is not on Russia’s agenda. On China’s part, non-alliance has been a cornerstone of its foreign policy since the 1980s and a key component of the concept of “a harmonious world” and the “Shanghai spirit” of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Both terms have long been advocated by the Chinese government. In this sense, forming alliance is not an ordinary foreign policy decision, but a major shift in China’s fundamental approach and principles of diplomacy.…

China~US Focus
China and Russia: Alliance or No Alliance?
Zheng Yu | Professor at the Institute of Russian Studies at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences

Andrew Batson — When “It’s the economy, stupid” falls short

Economists see everything in economic issues. reality is more complicated, and complex, than that simple point of view.

The US Seventh Fleet is massing battle units in the vicinity of China to force a Chinese withdrawal of territorial claims and an imminent US/NATO coordinated attack on eastern Ukraine is being prepared to pressure Russia, the choice being either capitulation or fighting NATO. 

This is actually contra the economic interests of most nations and about the projection of imperial power. It is political, that is, about who controls territory. This precedes economics.

Andrew Batson's Blog

When “It’s the economy, stupid” falls short
Andrew

US-NATO Border Confrontation with Russia Risks Nuclear War and Loss of European Partners — Jessica Desvarieux interviews Michael Hudson

And all throughout Europe — I've been in Germany twice in the last two months, and they're really worried that somehow America is telling Europe, let's you and Russia fight. 

Real News Network
US-NATO Border Confrontation with Russia Risks Nuclear War and Loss of European Partners

Jessica Desvarieux interviews Michael Hudson

Salman Rafi Sheikh — China: Demand for Resources and the Changing Contours of Foreign Policy

Rising power China colliding with US global hegemony. As usual, oil.

But securing oil production isn’t China’s only worry; shipping, of course, is also a key concern. More than 80 percent of Beijing’s imported oil has to wind its way through a global choke point, the Strait of Malacca—a channel near Singapore that shrinks to less than two miles wide and handles more than 15 million barrels of oil shipments a day. In a 2003 speech, Hu Jintao, then China’s president, articulated the “Malacca dilemma”: the fear that “certain major powers”—code for the United States—could cut China’s energy lifeline in this narrow passage, mirroring what America did to Japan during World War II.

New Eastern Outlook
China: Demand for Resources and the Changing Contours of Foreign Policy
Salman Rafi Sheikh

See also,  Yana Leksyutina, The First Chinese White Paper on Military Strategy: New Accents?

Sputnik — US Army Commander Confirms NATO "Not Interested in a Fair Fight"

Arms race on for superiority, all but guaranteeing that a conflict will turn nuclear and perhaps preemptively. 

MAD (mutual assured destruction) during Cold War 1 was based on parity with no effective defense against ICBMs. That no longer holds in Cold War 2.

This, according to the Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee [Konstantin Kosachev], is the first time a commander of [NATO] ground forces in Europe has reiterated what the Russia Federation has been saying for a long time.

"The goal of the plans is to get NATO military superiority over Russia….

Sputnik
US Army Commander Confirms NATO "Not Interested in a Fair Fight"

John Helmer — Putin Submarines Surround Australia Within Range Of US Bases – Ray Atomizes Australian Politicians

Some highlights.

The strategic purpose of the new [Australian] submarines, according to the US Pacific Fleet commander, Admiral Harry Harris, is to combine with the US fleet to attack the Chinese Navy and threaten China. Presentations to the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (APSI) by a group of US Navy officers and US consultants in Canberra a year ago emphasized that it is US strategy to deploy the proposed new Australian Navy submarines for “strategic effect through offensive operations …by operating forward and up-threat.” Discussion during the presentations identified Russia as a “forward” target, as well as China. “Up-threat” was military jargon for preemptive attack.…

Several years on, the APSI papers reveal that Australian-American targeting of “Putin-Class submarines” extends, not only to China and Russia, but also to Vietnam and possibly Indonesia.…

A US Navy presentation of the flags of the attack submarine fleets in the Pacific and Indian Oceans indicates that much faster growth is planned for the submarine fleets of US allies – Australia, Indonesia, Japan, and South Korea – than for Russian allies – China, India, and North Korea.…

The “Vladimir Putin submarines” to which Abbott referred last week are currently operated by the Russian fleet based at Vladivostok. Russian built analogues and domestically modified designs of “Putin class” submarines are also operated by the Chinese and the Indian Navies. All are capable of launching nuclear-armed missiles, some by ballistic trajectory and some by cruise flight. According to a survey of Russian naval experts this week, all three submarine fleets now have the launch capability to strike the bases in Australia on which the US depends for warfighting in the southern hemisphere. 

The Russian plan currently calls for six Borey-class attack submarines – three, the Yury Dolgorukiy, the Vladimir Monomakh (below, left) and the Alexander Nevsky (right) – are already operational. Each armed with 16 intercontinental ballistic missiles, the primary mission of these craft is to attack the continental US and US nuclear bases in the north western hemisphere. By the time all six are deployed in 2018, one is likely to target US bases in Australia. A new Australian submarine fleet moves this targeting up the probability scale from likely to certain.…

Gennady Nechaev, a military analyst at Vzglyad in Moscow, acknowledges that the extent to which Australia is a carrier for US military operations against China and Russia, makes it inevitable that Russia, China and India will deploy counter-measures, particularly against Pine Gap, in central Australia. In this essay Nechaev reviews the growth of Russian, Chinese and Indian aircraft carrier strike forces. He concludes that current Kremlin thinking favours investment in submarines over aircraft carriers. Indian and Chinese calculations are a little different. 

Nechaev is sceptical that the Putin flotilla in the Coral Sea last November was accompanied by a submarine. The Russian Navy declines to comment. Nechaev is more confident that as Australian bases and weapons are expanded for new US strike strategy, they will be countered by Russia, China, and India. 

Also, as the Putin submarines approach firing range, they will be undetectable. This is confirmed by evidence of recent failures by US, UK, Swedish and NATO submarine defence units to find Russian craft off the coast of Scotland, and within the Swedish archipelago.… 

Expect vastly more military spending.

Dances with Bears

Putin Submarines Surround Australia Within Range Of US Bases – Ray Atomizes Australian Politicians

John Helmer

Patrick Armstrong — Why Should Moscow Trust Anything NATO Says?

Lists a strong of broken promises and agreement violations.

What, exactly, is the purpose of NATO?

Russia Insider
Why Should Moscow Trust Anything NATO Says?
Patrick Armstrong

Patrick Armstrong received a PhD from Kings College, University of London, England in 1976 and started working for the Canadian government as a defence scientist in 1977. He began a 22-year specialisation on the USSR and then Russia in 1984, and was Political Counsellor in the Canadian Embassy in Moscow from 1993 to 1996.

RT — ‘Deterrence not arms race’: Russia hints it may develop rival to US Prompt Global Strike

A highly-placed Defense Ministry official says that Russia may be forced to match the US Conventional Prompt Global Strike (CPGS) doctrine, which prescribes that a non-nuclear US missile must be able to hit any target on Earth within one hour. 

“Russia is capable of and will have to develop a similar system,” Deputy Defense Minister Yuri Borisov said during a public discussion of the Russian rearmament program for the decade of 2016 through 2025.…

The arms race that is not an arms race, the cold war that is not a cold war.

Prompt Global Strike
RT
‘Deterrence not arms race’: Russia hints it may develop rival to US

Don Quijones — Nato Summit Is Glaring Proof Of Demise Of Representative Government

A “ring of steel” some 12 miles long and costing over 110 million dollars was erected to protect the political representatives of some of the world’s freest and most democratic nations as they freely exchanged ideas and thoughts on how to preserve the West’s global domination at the barrel of a gun.…
The reason why Western political leaders feel the need for such heavy-duty protection from the people they’re charged with representing is quite simple: they no longer even pretend to represent them. Instead they have become little more than a protection racket for the world’s largest corporations and richest individuals. As the full scale of the betrayal slowly dawns on the people of the West, public rage is inevitably rising.….

Neoliberal capitalism and participatory democracy are antithetical. Capitalism prioritizes of the interests owners of the means of production, financial and actual over the interests and needs of society and the environment. This sets — money and machines ahead of people and the planet. Neoliberal capitalism is naturally oligarchic and anti-democratic, favoring representative democracy that can be captured by money and power to participatory democracy and genuine popular sovereignty.

Now, you can call such a system of governance whatever you want (I myself prefer the term “inverted totalitarianism), but one thing it is decidedly not is democracy.

Raging Bull-shit
Nato Summit Is Glaring Proof Of Demise Of Representative Government
Don Quijones

Veteran Intelligence Professionals for Sanity (VIPS) Warning To Merkel on Russian ‘Invasion’ Intel

Alarmed at the anti-Russian hysteria sweeping Official Washington – and the specter of a new Cold War – U.S. intelligence veterans took the unusual step of sending this Aug. 30 memo to German Chancellor Merkel challenging the reliability of Ukrainian and U.S. media claims about a Russian “invasion.”

Take Away: "You need to know, for example, that accusations of a major Russian “invasion” of Ukraine appear not to be supported by reliable intelligence. Rather, the “intelligence” seems to be of the same dubious, politically “fixed” kind used 12 years ago to “justify” the U.S.-led attack on Iraq."

Signed by

William Binney, former Technical Director, World Geopolitical & Military Analysis, NSA; co-founder, SIGINT Automation Research Center (ret.) 

David MacMichael, National Intelligence Council (ret.) 

Ray McGovern, former US Army infantry/intelligence officer & CIA analyst (ret.) 

Elizabeth Murray, Deputy National Intelligence Officer for Middle East (ret.) 

Todd E. Pierce, MAJ, US Army Judge Advocate (Ret.) 

Coleen Rowley, Division Counsel & Special Agent, FBI (ret.) 

Ann Wright, Col., US Army (ret.); Foreign Service Officer (resigned)

Consortium News
Warning Merkel on Russian ‘Invasion’ Intel