Angry Bear
Commentary on Commentary on Sanders’s Single Payer National Health Insurance Proposal
Robert Waldman
An economics, investment, trading and policy blog with a focus on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). We seek the truth, avoid the mainstream and are virulently anti-neoliberalism.
POSTSCRIPT: Of course, you might also want to consider MPT, or Modern Petro-Monetary Theory. Rather than asking what level of economic growth kicks off unacceptable inflation, it asks what level of economic growth kicks off an oil price spike that produces a recession and higher unemployment. I have to admit that I increasingly think of the economy in those terms these days.The only operational constraint according to MMT is not inflation, as it often expressed. Rather, it is availability of real resources. Inflation results when effective demand outpaces supply due to lack of availability of real resources, either through the inability of the economy to expand quickly enough to meet the increased demand (demand-side inflation) or because of lack of real resources (supply-side inflation).
Kevin - your instinct on the oil price is on target, in my view. The inflation threat that we face doesn't come from deficits or high employment -- it comes from the cost and price of energy. But managing this is not within the competence of the Federal Reserve.
I have been trying to call attention to this issue for years (it's in my 2008 book, The Predator State, and in articles written recently with Jing Chen, most recently in the Cambridge Journal of Economics, which contains the following paragraph:
"Our central argument is that stimulus fell short – and would havefallen short even if the amounts had been greater – becauseincreased demand under existing high-fixed cost structures drove, or would have driven, the price of resources too high, too quickly. The constraint on growth was not inflation generated by easy money, but the combination of the rising real marginal cost especially of energy, combined with monopoly control of and speculative instability in energy prices, which together act as a choke-chain on the return to full employment."
But the endless debate over deficits, debt and quantitative easing tends to obscure this issue -- and in public discourse one cannot easily answer questions that are not being asked. So thanks for making the point, and keep digging at it.
James Galbraith
Eventually the American economy will recover no matter how badly we screw things up. Ezra Klein explains what this could mean:
"Because a recovery is likely within five years, whichever party wins the White House in 2012 is likely to get the credit, and so too will its policy agenda. You can see how this will work. If Romney wins the presidency and the economy begins to rebound, Republicans will argue, and America’s experience will seem to show, that they were right all along: The stimulus was useless and the regulatory uncertainty the Obama administration created with its health-care plan and its talk of cap-and-trade and all the rest kept businesses from investing."The nightmare scenario would be four more years of Reaganonomics heavily influenced by the Tea Party base toward fiscal austerity, privatization, and Rothbardian Libertarianism.