Showing posts with label creative destruction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label creative destruction. Show all posts

Wednesday, September 28, 2016

Hans-Werner Sinn — Secular Stagnation or Self-Inflicted Malaise?


Hans-Werner Sinn calls for "creative destruction."
The only way out of the trap is a hefty dose of creative destruction, which in Europe would have to be accompanied by debt relief and exits from the eurozone, with subsequent currency devaluations. The shock would be painful for the incumbent wealth owners, but, after a rapid decline in the dollar values of asset prices, including land and real estate, new businesses and investment projects would soon have room to grow, and new jobs would be created. The natural return on investment would again be high, meaning that the economy could expand once again at normal interest rates. The sooner this purge is allowed to take place, the milder it will be, and the sooner Europeans and others will be able to breathe easy again.
Creative destruction = liquidation. As Sinn recognizes, it would blow up the EZ. Well, that one way to do it.

Project Syndicate
Secular Stagnation or Self-Inflicted Malaise?
Hans-Werner Sinn, Professor of Economics and Public Finance at the University of Munich, was President of the Ifo Institute for Economic Research and serves on the German economy ministry’s Advisory Council

Tuesday, June 3, 2014

Tony Wikrent — The best of times. The worst of times.

These are the best of times. These are the worst of times. The times we live in give us great hope. And, the times we live in crush what little hope we have.

We have hope, because we know what to do to solve the problems that now threaten our very existence. But we lose hope, because implementing these solutions seems politically impossible. Too few people with too much money would have their financial interests hurt or even destroyed by these solutions, so the media they own obscures the solutions behind false equivalencies, and the politicians they own dismiss the solutions as "too expensive." ...
Our great hope is based on the fact that we basically need to build an entirely new world economy, to replace the old economy that is so heavily dependent on burning fossil fuels. Considering that the entire world economy produces around $71 trillion in goods and services each year (of which the U.S. economy produces around $16 trillion), that means we could easily see double digit rates of economic growth each year, for many, many years. $100 trillion over 15 years is just under $7 trillion a year. That's just a ten percent increase in world output right now! We CAN do this - we have hundreds of millions of people worldwide who would welcome the opportunity of a new, well-paying job that moreover made a significant contribution, in whatever large or small way, to building a better future for their children and grandchildren....
We already have the science, and we already have the technology. What we do not have is a society that values scientists and engineers more than Wall Street speculators and usurers. That will change as the combined triple crises of climate change, resource depletion, and economic degradation under the burdens of usury and speculation, compel us to turn to science and technology to save our very lives. This will be similar to the process described by Thomas Piketty, in which the tragedies of World Wars One and Two destroyed the stranglehold oligarchs in various countries had achieved over their nations' economies. Even now, we are developing the new ideologies that will replace neo-liberalism and conservatism, and change our culture so that doing good is no longer a losing proposition.

The level at which World War Two was actually won, was the level of science and technology, with the deployment of mass produced internal combustion engines, directed radio waves (radar and sonar), computers for code-breaking as well as effective combat fire control, and, finally, the splitting of atoms. The level at which humanity will win its struggle to survive global climate change will again be the level of science and technology, and woe betide the selfish oligarch and financier who stands in the way.
Real Economics
The best of times. The worst of times.
Tony Wikrent

Wednesday, January 15, 2014

Michael Shellenberger and Ted Nordhaus — The Creative Destruction of Climate Economics

In the 70 years that have passed since Joseph Schumpeter coined the term "creative destruction," economists have struggled awkwardly with how to think about growth and innovation. Born of the low-growth agricultural economies of 18th century Europe, the dismal science to this day remains focused on the question of how to most efficiently distribute scarce resources, not on how to create new ones -- this despite two centuries of rapid economic growth driven by disruptive technologies, from the steam engine to electricity to the Internet.There are some important, if qualified, exceptions. Sixty years ago, Nobelist Robert Solow and colleagues calculated that more than 80 percent of long-term growth derives from technological change. But neither Solow nor most other economists offered much explanation beyond that. Technological change was, in the words of one of Solow's contemporaries, "manna from heaven."
Climate economics until recently was similarly oriented. Economists mostly treated global warming as a challenge of distributing scarce resources (e.g., the right to pollute), not of creating new ones (e.g., cheap zero carbon energy sources). Climate models treated technological innovation as a given, not as a dependent variable.
That's starting to change. Over the last few years, economists have modeled ways to accelerate the innovation of zero carbon power sources. The boldest of these entries to date comes from one of the discipline's rising stars, MIT's Daron Acemoglu, along with Philippe Aghion, Leonardo Bursztyn and David Hemous, in a paper published last February in American Economic Review. The paper argues that conventional climate models have overstated the importance of carbon pricing and understated the importance of public investment to encourage technological innovation.
The Breakthrough Insititute
The Creative Destruction of Climate Economics: Why 18th Century Economics Can't Deal with 21st Century Global Warming
 Michael Shellenberger, Ted Nordhaus


Monday, July 1, 2013

Ashwin Parameshwaran — Creation, Destruction and Stagnation

First, creation [of the new] implies destruction [of the old].
Second, the opposite of creative destruction is stagnation.
macroresilience
Creation, Destruction and Stagnation
Ashwin Parameshwaran

Thursday, January 3, 2013

Izabella Kaminska — Why a “free” market changes everything


On the evolution of capitalism beyond capitalism. One of Izzy's best yet.

The Financial Times | FT Alphaville
Why a “free” market changes everything
Izabella Kaminska
(h/t Andy Blatchford via FB)

See also:

OuiShare — Creative Community For The Collaborative Economy
Yes, the collaborative economy is destroying jobs. So what’s next?
Stanislas Jourdan

Monday, November 7, 2011

The Austrian View of "Destructive Inflationism"


I was struck last week by a question posed by CNBC’s Simon Hobbs to Marc Faber - investor, analyst and financial writer extraordinaire:  “In Steve Jobs’ new autobiography, Walter Isaacson talks about a conversation that he had with Rupert Murdoch, and Steve Jobs says that for commentary and analysis the axis today is not liberal versus conservative.  The axis now is constructive versus destructive.  Which side of that line do you think you fall on?”
I’ll assume that Mr. Hobbs sees Marc Faber residing more in the “destructive” camp – and I presume many would consider my analysis “destructive” as well.  We’re now in this strange and uncomfortable period of heightened angst, anger and vilification, whether it is in Athens, throughout Europe, or across the U.S. from New York City to Oakland, California.  European policymakers have been keen to blame short-sellers and speculators for their bond market woes.  The rating agencies are under attack on both sides of the Atlantic.  And analysts such as Mr. Faber and myself are generally viewed with contempt by those determined to view the world through rose-colored glasses.

From Websters:   “Destructionist:  One who delights in destroying that which is valuable; one whose principles and influence tend to destroy existing institutions; a destructive.”

I tend to view the recent use of “destructionist” in similar light to the vilification of the so-called “liquidationists” and “Bubble poppers” (a Bernanke term) from the spectacular “Roaring Twenties” boom and bust cycle.  There are those who believe that enlightened policymaking can implement an inflationary cycle and successfully grow out of debt problems.  And then there are others that see failed policy doctrine and Credit Inflation as the root cause of a dangerous dynamic that risks a catastrophic end.  Revisionist history has been especially unfair to Andrew Mellon and other “Bubble poppers” that warned of the impending dangers associated with the runaway monetary, Credit and speculative excess in the years immediately preceding the 1929 crash.

I am of the view that inflationary policy doctrine (“inflationism”) is in the process of impairing the Creditworthiness of the financial claims that constitute the foundation of the global financial system.  Massive issuance of non-productive debt and central bank monetization have irreparably distorted the global pricing of finance and the resulting allocation of financial and real resources.  This backdrop has nurtured destructive speculative dynamics.  From my perspective, it is the “destructionist” forces of “inflationism” that today pose grave risk to global Capitalism.  And, to be sure, the “socialism” of Credit risk is at the heart of the monetary and economic quagmires imperiling Europe, the U.S and nations around the world.

From Wikipedia:  “Destructionism is a term used by Ludwig Von Mises, a classical liberal economist, to refer to policies that consume capital but do not accumulate it. It is the title of Part V of his seminal work Socialism. Since accumulation of capital is the basis for economic progress (as the capital stock of society increases, the productivity of labor rises, as well as wages and standards of living), Von Mises warned that pursuing socialist and statist policies will eventually lead to the consumption and reliance on old capital, borrowed capital, or printed ‘capital’ as these policies cannot create any new capital, instead only consuming the old.”

From the “Austrian” perspective, runaway Credit booms destroy wealth instead of creating it.  There is as well an important facet of inequitable wealth redistribution that returns to haunt the system come the unavoidable bursting of the Bubble and the associated devaluation of “printed capital.”  I believe the current course of reflationary policymaking is doomed specifically because the ongoing massive expansion (inflation) of financial claims is not associated with a corresponding increase in capital investment and real wealth-creating capacity.  Governments around the world are – and will be in the future – required to issue massive amounts of new debt to sustain maladjusted financial and economic structures, in the processes prolonging wealth-destructive over-consumption and destabilizing global imbalances.  The “Austrians” use the apt analogy of consuming one’s furniture for firewood....
Read the rest at The Prudent Bear
Destructive, Destructionism And Inflationism
Commentary by Doug Noland

Noland summarizes the contemporary Austrian approach typified by economist Marc Faber. MMT assignment: Pick out the similarities and differences in the Austrian and MMT approaches to Minsky's Ponzi finance.