Saturday, January 4, 2014

Travis Gettys — Thomas Cahill: Conservatives are afraid of pope’s ‘pure Christianity,’ not ‘pure Marxism’ (via Raw Story )

Thomas Cahill: Conservatives are afraid of pope’s ‘pure Christianity,’ not ‘pure Marxism’ (via Raw Story )
Conservatives are less concerned with the new pope’s politics than they are with his religious teachings, said scholar and author Thomas Cahill. Republicans, including right-wing radio host Rush Limbaugh, have criticized comments made by Pope Francis…

Friday, January 3, 2014

Jordan Weissmann — Here's Exactly How Much the Government Would Have to Spend to Make Public College Tuition-Free

And the grand total is… $62.6 billion...
Technically, you could say the additional cost of making college tuition free would be even cheaper than $62.6 billion. How come? Because most Pell Grant money is already spent at public colleges. In 2011 - 2012, state school students received $21.8 billion in grants. So, if you subtract that from the total needed to completely eliminate tuition, it the sum would be closer to $40 billion.
The Atlantic
Here's Exactly How Much the Government Would Have to Spend to Make Public College Tuition-Free
Jordan Weissmann

Eric W. Dolan — Pope Francis condemns fundamentalism, urges setting an example over proselytizing (via Raw Story )

Pope Francis condemns fundamentalism, urges setting an example over proselytizing (via Raw Story )
Pope Francis recently urged the faithful to understand reality by looking at it “from the periphery” in order to avoid becoming fundamentalists. Francis meet with 120 superiors general of men’s religious orders at the Vatican in November. His…

Bill Mitchell — Growth and Inequality – Part 2

I am now using Friday’s blog space to provide draft versions of the Modern Monetary Theory textbook that I am writing with my colleague and friend Randy Wray. We expect to publish the text sometime around mid-2014. Our (very incomplete) textbook home page – Modern Monetary Theory and Practice – has draft chapters and contents etc in varying states of completion. Comments are always welcome. Note also that the text I post here is not intended to be a blog-style narrative but constitutes the drafting work I am doing – that is, the material posted will not represent the complete text. Further it will change as the drafting process evolves.

Previous blogs in this series:
Growth and Inequality – Part 1

Chapter X Growth and Inequality

[CONTINUING - NOTE I REARRANGED THE PEDAGOGY A LITTLE IN THIS SECTION FROM THAT PRESENTED LAST WEEK - I HAD ACCESS TO HARROD'S ORIGINAL BOOK TODAY WHEREAS LAST WEEK IT WAS FROM MEMORY]

X.2 Keynesian growth theories – Harrod-Domar


Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Growth and Inequality – Part 2
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at the Charles Darwin University, Northern Territory, Australia

John Carney — John Cochrane on why the Fed's QE program has 'no effect' [Cochrane agrees with Mosler?]


Jawdropper. John Cochrane agreeing with MMT on Fed ops wrt QE? Who knew?

CNBC
John Cochrane on why the Fed's QE program has 'no effect'
John Carney | Senior Editor

When they try to scare you with the national debt, give them the national assets

I'm sure you've heard of the debt clock, right? That is that big electronic billboard ticking away at light speed in Times Square that shows the size of the national debt, which is currently at $17.3 trillion, and debt per citizen at $54,000.

Well, what they don't show you are the national assets, which are at least five times more. The national assets are $108 trillion and assets per citizen are at $341,000.

Walk into any bank and ask them for a loan. Then say, "Here are my debts." What do you think the banker is going to ask you? What are your assets!

However, in our national dialogue about debt our assets are never even mentioned. And by the way, our assets are WAAAAAY more than $108 trillion. If you count land value, natural resources, intellectual assets, etc, it's probably closer to a quadrillion dollars.

Blizzard ravages East coast

Northeast was hardest hit. Here's the view looking onto 1st Ave in Manhattan.

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Thursday, January 2, 2014

Mark Gongloff — Krugman Nails WSJ Pulitzer Winner For Misleading Inequality Claim


Rupert Murdoch edits the WSJ editorial page? Seems like it. I haven't touched that rag since he bought it.



David Glasner — The Microfoundations Wars Continue

The microfoundations project is predicated on a gigantic leap of faith that the existing economy has an underlying structure that corresponds closely enough to the assumptions of the Arrow-Debreu model suitably adjusted for stochastic elements and a variety of frictions (e.g., Calvo pricing) that may be introduced into the models depending on the modeler’s judgment about what constitutes an allowable friction. This is classic question-begging with a vengeance: arriving at a conclusion by assuming what needs to be proved. Such question begging is not necessarily illegitimate; every research program is based on some degree of faith or optimism that results not yet in hand will justify the effort required to generate those results. What is not legitimate is the claim that ONLY the models based on such question-begging assumptions are genuinely scientific.
This question-begging mentality masquerading as science is actually not unique to the microfoundations school. It is not uncommon among those with an exaggerated belief in the powers of science, a mentality that Hayek called scientism. It is akin to physicalism, the philosophical doctrine that all phenomena are physical. According to physicalism, there are no mental phenomena. What we perceive as mental phenomena, e;g;l consciousness, is not real, but an illusion. Our mental states are really nothing but physical states. I do not say that physicalism is false, just that it is a philosophical position, not a proposition derived from science, and certainly not a fact that is, or can be, established by the currently available tools of science. It is a faith that some day — some day probably very, very far off into the future — science will demonstrate that our mental processes can be reduced to, and derived from, the laws of physics. Similarly, given the inability to account for observed fluctuations of output and employment in terms of microfoundations, the assertion that only microfounded models are scientific is simply an expression of faith in some, as yet unknown, future discovery, not a claim supported by any available scientific proof or evidence.
Uneasy Money
The Microfoundations Wars Continue
David Glasner

Zero Hedge — Goldman Leading Indicator Confirms 2013 Ended With Global Economy In 'Slowdown' Phase




Zero Hedge
Goldman Leading Indicator Confirms 2013 Ended With Global Economy In 'Slowdown' Phase
Submitted by Tyler Durden

Quantum Crazyness


Video report below from the EU's Wal Thornhill that examines some imaginary thinking extant in  the mainstream of the academe of physics with their emerging concept of "quantum entanglement".

Attention is paid to the actual language (metaphor alert: 'entanglement') used by the mainstream quantum physicists.

This is an interesting statement Thornhill makes at one point:

"Its only necessary to highlight the meaningless language to show the ideas expressed are imaginary..."

The general insight into and recognition of the workings of our language exhibited by Thornhill here should be of note to MMTers.

Looks like more dubious magical thinking is being exposed in another mainstream department of the academe.





Zero Hedge— Alan Greenspan's Modest Proposal: Fix Broken Economic Models By... Modeling Irrational "Animal Spirits"


Pretty amazing admission by the Maestro.

Zero Hedge
Alan Greenspan's Modest Proposal: Fix Broken Economic Models By... Modeling Irrational "Animal Spirits"
Submitted by Tyler Durden

Robert Neuwirth — Against Economics

 “The idea of individual, exclusive ownership, not just of what can be carried and occupied, but of the immovable, near-eternal earth, has proved to be the most destructive and creative cultural force in written history. It has eliminated ancient civilizations wherever it has encountered them, and displaced entire peoples from their homelands, but it has also spread an undreamed-of degrees of personal freedom and protected it with democratic institutions wherever it has taken hold.”— Andro Linklater
Stealth of Nations
Against Economics
Robert Neuwirth reviews Andro Linklater's Owning the Earth

[08] As soon as the land of any country has all become private property, the landlords, like all other men, love to reap where they never sowed, and demand a rent even for its natural produce. The wood of the forest, the grass of the field, and all the natural fruits of the earth, which, when land was in common, cost the labourer only the trouble of gathering them, come, even to him, to have an additional price fixed upon them. He must then pay for the licence to gather them; and must give up to the landlord a portion of what his labour either collects or produces. This portion, or, what comes to the same thing, the price of this portion, constitutes the rent of land, and in the price of the greater part of commodities makes a third component part. 
[09] The real value of all the different component parts of price, it must be observed, is measured by the quantity of labour which they can, each of them, purchase or command. Labour measures the value not only of that part of price which resolves itself into labour, but of that which resolves itself into rent, and of that which resolves itself into profit.
[10] In every society the price of every commodity finally resolves itself into some one or other, or all of those three parts; and in every improved society, all the three enter more or less, as component parts, into the price of the far greater part of commodities.
— Adam Smith, Wealth of Nations, Book 1, Chapter 6

Sec. 32. But the chief matter of property being now not the fruits of the earth, and the beasts that subsist on it, but the earth itself; as that which takes in and carries with it all the rest; I think it is plain, that property in that too is acquired as the former. As much land as a man tills, plants, improves, cultivates, and can use the product of, so much is his property. He by his labour does, as it were, inclose it from the common. Nor will it invalidate his right, to say every body else has an equal title to it; and therefore he cannot appropriate, he cannot inclose, without the consent of all his fellow-commoners, all mankind. God, when he gave the world in common to all mankind, commanded man also to labour, and the penury of his condition required it of him. God and his reason commanded him to subdue the earth, i.e. improve it for the benefit of life, and therein lay out something upon it that was his own, his labour. He that in obedience to this command of God, subdued, tilled and sowed any part of it, thereby annexed to it something that was his property, which another had no title to, nor could without injury take from him.
Sec. 33. Nor was this appropriation of any parcel of land, by improving it, any prejudice to any other man, since there was still enough, and as good left; and more than the yet unprovided could use. So that, in effect, there was never the less left for others because of his enclosure for himself: for he that leaves as much as another can make use of, does as good as take nothing at all. No body could think himself injured by the drinking of another man, though he took a good draught, who had a whole river of the same water left him to quench his thirst: and the case of land and water, where there is enough of both, is perfectly the same.
Sec. 34. God gave the world to men in common; but since he gave it them for their benefit, and the greatest conveniencies of life they were capable to draw from it, it cannot be supposed he meant it should always remain common and uncultivated. He gave it to the use of the industrious and rational, (and labour was to be his title to it;) not to the fancy or covetousness of the quarrelsome and contentious. He that had as good left for his improvement, as was already taken up, needed not complain, ought not to meddle with what was already improved by another's labour: if he did, it is plain he desired the benefit of another's pains, which he had no right to, and not the ground which God had given him in common with others to labour on, and whereof there was as good left, as that already possessed, and more than he knew what to do with, or his industry could reach to.
— John Locke, Second Treatise on Government, Chapter V


Ambrose Evans-Pritchard — IMF paper warns of 'savings tax' and mass write-offs as West's debt hits 200-year high


Rogoff and Reinhart back with the fear mongering over excessive public debt. Again, they do not distinguish among different monetary regimes. Evans-Pritchard falls for it.
The weaker eurozone states are particularly vulnerable to default because they no longer have their own sovereign currencies, putting them in the same position as emerging countries that borrowed in dollars in the 1980s and 1990s. Even so, nations have defaulted through history even when they do borrow in their own currency.
Right, on the gold standard or if they peg to another currency, there are political factors such as war involved, or the leadership is too incompetent to know what to do — or are poorly advised.
The clear implication of the IMF paper is that Germany and the creditor core would do better to bite the bullet on big write-offs immediately rather than buying time with creeping debt mutualisation.

Morons or Peterson flakes?

The Telegraph
IMF paper warns of 'savings tax' and mass write-offs as West's debt hits 200-year high
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

JW Mason — Debt and Demand

It is customary to see rising debt as the result of private choices to finance higher expenditures by issuing new credit-market liabilities. But historically, it is equally correct to see rising debt as the result of political choices that increase the real value of existing liabilities.
The Slack Wire
Debt and Demand
JW Mason

Aaron Martin and Ben FitzGerald — The Future of the Military is Robots Building Robots


Foreign Policy

National Security

The Future of the Military is Robots Building Robots
Aaron Martin Ben FitzGerald

Why is this important? Historically, the military has been in the forefront of technological innovation, which is then adopted by private industry. The military has the political clout to get virtually unlimited access to financial capital directly from the Treasury, with the risk perceived not as a consequence of acting, but of not acting in a timely fashion.

Mike Whitney — Work Until You’re Dead?

A sizable chunk of the adult population is going to punch a clock until they keel-over in the office parking lot and get hauled off in the company dumpster. And those are the lucky ones, the so called baby boomers. By the time we get to the millennials it’ll be even worse because the economy will have been ravaged by 25 or 30 years of austerity leaving the proles to scrape by on hardtack and gruel. Pensions are already being looted, Social Security is under fire, and any small stipend that supports the poor, the unemployed, or the infirm is going to be terminated. That’s why everyone is so down-in-the-mouth, because their expectations of the future are so bleak….
Go figure. And there’s a larger point here too, which is that Americans have always believed that their children would enjoy a higher standard of living than their own. Until now, that is. Now most people think things are going to get worse, much worse. You see it in all the surveys. Expectations have changed, the future looks darker than ever before, and people are scared.
Truthdig
Work Until You’re Dead?
Mike Whitney | Counterpunch

This is clearly unsustainable politically. Look for a growing populist backlash on both left and right.


Kiley Kroh — California Installed More Rooftop Solar In 2013 Than Previous 30 Years Combined



Climate Progress
California Installed More Rooftop Solar In 2013 Than Previous 30 Years Combined
Kiley Kroh

Charles Babington and Jennifer Agiesta — Half Of Americans Think Our Democracy Needs 'A Lot Of Changes' Or A Complete Overhaul

Americans enter 2014 with a profoundly negative view of their government, expressing little hope that elected officials can or will solve the nation's biggest problems, a new poll finds.
Half say America's system of democracy needs either "a lot of changes" or a complete overhaul, according to the poll conducted by the AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Just 1 in 20 says it works well and needs no changes.
Americans, who have a reputation for optimism, have a sharply pessimistic take on their government after years of disappointment in Washington.
The percentage of Americans saying the nation is heading in the right direction hasn't topped 50 in about a decade. In the new poll, 70 percent lack confidence in the government's ability "to make progress on the important problems and issues facing the country in 2014."…
Regardless of the issue, however, Americans express remarkably little confidence that the federal government can make real progress.
For instance, 86 percent of those who called health care reform a top priority said they want the government to put "a lot" or "a great deal" of effort into it. But about half of them (49 percent) are "not at all confident" there will be real progress, and 20 percent are only "slightly confident."

The third item on the lest is the deficit and debt. Even the authors of this report is clueless that the deficit and therefore the debt are endogenous.
Even on an issue completely within the federal government's control, the budget and national debt, 65 percent of those who called it a priority say they have no confidence in the government's ability to fix it. Another 20 percent are only "slightly confident."
But the good new is that people are at least looking for change. Time to propose a complete overhaul, putting people first and thinking globally, which is what it will take to address climate change.

The Huffington Post
Half Of Americans Think Our Democracy Needs 'A Lot Of Changes' Or A Complete Overhaul
Charles Babington and Jennifer Agiesta

Bill Gross’s Flagship Fund Suffers Biggest Loss Since 1994


Ouch!  Who is going to invest with them now?

1994 was the year before another big debt doomsday scenario was supposed to happen, perhaps not a coincidence.

Ari Phillips — Ford Debuts New Car That Saves Each Driver Four Metric Tons Of Greenhouse Gas Per Year


That's a state of the art solar panel on the roof.

Climate Progress
Ford Debuts New Car That Saves Each Driver Four Metric Tons Of Greenhouse Gas Per Year
Ari Phillips

Wednesday, January 1, 2014

Another Lost Voice: Silvio Gesell

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)

Clearly an early proponent of fully fiat currency, zero interest rates, and that a citizenry needs to grant itself enough income to purchase and consume all that it can produce.

Video about economist Silvio Gesell. A currency system & economic order are dependent variables.

Wikipedia entry on Silvio Gesell

The Natural Economic Order, Silvio Gesell, 1929 (full text)




200 Years Ago, Tom Jefferson Agreed With Warren Mosler: The Natural Rate of Interest On State Currency Creation Is Zero

   (Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)













Plus, both realized that public currency creation was always a pledge of future taxes not yet collected. However, Jefferson didn't seem to realize that a commodity peg for public credit was not only unnecessary, but highly constraining. He also didn't bother noting that a GROWING POPULATION OR ECONOMY would never even desire to claw back all previously created currency, by excessive taxation. (Not unless we wanted all citizens to have zero liquidity, all the time - a condition NOT conducive to policy agility.)

STATAL MONEY (by Ezra Pound)
 In 1816 Thomas Jefferson made a basic statement that has NOT been properly digested, let alone brought into perspective with various "modern proposals" for special improvements of the present damned and destructive "system" or money racket. The reader had better FRAME Jefferson's statement:-
"And if the national bills issued be bottomed (as is indispensable) on pledges of specific taxes for their redemption within certain and moderate epochs, and be of proper denominations for circulation, no interest on them would be necessary or just, because they would answer to every one of the purposes of metallic money withdrawn and replaced by them." Jefferson to Crawford, 1816.
The Natural Rate of Interest is Zero

see also, "Economics of Human Energy"


"The need to balance the budget is a myth." -Paul Samuelson


For Cultural Adaptive Rate To Stay The Same ... Every Luddite Has To Be Stood Upon, Not Argued With

(Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)



Paraphrasing Isaac Newton and  Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa.

Reviewing "Game Tape" of Human Cultural Development, Before And After Designing New Plays To Try Out

Though relevant, this is not pure accounting hyperbole, so I posted it to the OpenOps blog.



Don Quijones — Happy Ragin’ New Year


Lots of new year's posts out there. In my view, this is the one to read. Bonus George Carlin clip, too.

Raging Bull-shit 

Worldwatch — GDP: The ‘rest’ surpasses the ‘west’



Real-World Economics Review Blog
GDP: The ‘rest’ surpasses the ‘west’
Posted by Merijn Knibbe

Turning point?


Very Useful Historical Analysis of Blunders On Europe's Path To A Shared, Fiat Currency System - By Bill Mitchell

(Commentary posted by Roger Erickson)



Options for Europe – Part 2

Great history review here by Bill. Much of the historical thinking he reviews held equally well for economic policy deliberations in the USA as well, and still does.

That history drives home the point that we should never let theoretical economists anywhere near national policy?

And we should also never let any single lobby, in this case banking, dominate policy?

Policy agility requires consensus? Otherwise, you end up with a constrained policy space. If populations could keep that simple idea in mind when approaching group policy, theoretical economists would be kept in check.
Coordinate narrow factions - ignorant by definition - through appropriate checks and balances? James Madison's anthropomorphic, 1776 summary of system science still awaits application of appropriately adjusted methods, for constantly changing situations.

To explore group options, we need far less discussion of theory, and far faster evaluation of new, more indirect methods?

For every intractable cultural task, there is a solution, and that solution will always involve invention of methods allowing yet another level of indirect, cultural adaptations?

Members of diverse system-science fields have been saying that for decades. Centuries, in some cases. Call it statistical process control, or ecology, or autocatalysis, or evolution. Call it what you want - even political economics - ... just DO something to adapt group methods at the same pace that change occurs? For Desired Outcomes to stay the same, EVERYTHING has to change? Constantly? To adapt to changing situations, we need citizens with situational awareness and the audacity to change anything that needs to change.

Can we please start retaining that simple fact throughout K-12 education? That's how we can damp the frequency of Ayn Rand acolytes (and sanity-lite's) like Paul Ryan, or 99% of our Congresspeople. They reflect our electorate, after all, which reflects the mal-adaptive operation of our K-12 school curriculum.

We as a people are what we let our Congress practice. And our Congress is what our citizens practice during training and education.


Lynn Stuart Parramore — You Won't Believe Conservatives' Absurd Theories They Think Will Cure Poverty

Paul Ryan serves up the latest Turkey-Hand recipe, relying heavily on promoting volunteerism and advocating charity in the place of food stamps to conquer poverty. And if that doesn’t work, hey, folks — just pray! “You cure poverty eye to eye, soul to soul,” Ryan explained to a Heritage Foundation forum. “Spiritual redemption: That’s what saves people.”
Paul Ryan's answer to Pope Francis?

AlterNet