Monday, October 13, 2008

Warren Mosler's comments on open-ended dollar lending to foreign CB's

These are comments taken from Warren Mosler's website regarding the open ended dollar funding of foreign central banks by our Fed.

Functionally, the Fed seems to have agreed to lend USD to the ECB in unlimited quantities unsecured and non-recourse.

This defies comprehension.

It’s potentially functionally a fiscal transfer.

Interesting they have the authority to do that.

They wouldn’t even do it for the US banks where the Fed demands collateral for loans.

It opens the door to widespread fraud and corruption as the ECB can now lend USD without supervision or regulation and in any quantity.

Somehow this got under Congress’s radar screen.

Watch for the size of the first USD auction.

The ECB and other CB’s are going to set a rate and fill all requests at that rate.

Could be over $1 trillion?

Should bring USD LIBOR down to near the Fed funds rate.

Helps the euro vs the USD at first.

However, the primary way they pay the Fed back is for someone down the line to sell euros and buy USD.

USD debt is external debt for foreign CB’s, so they are in much the same position the emerging market nations used to be in when they were choked with USD debt.

Still trying to comprehend all the ramifications, but they are very large.


Unknown said...

Hi Mike,

You said on the radio show that if the Euro collapses you would make the trade of your lifetime and retire. What is your trading strategy for thid scenario?

Scott from Chicago

mike norman said...

Scott, I will be short the euro. Big time!!

Billy said...

I will be so happy when the day to day swings of the market are off of talk radio - and I love talk radio.

Today, on a national show someone named Marty Weis said to sell everything, go to cash and bonds and buy inverse ETFs.

Today is October 14, 2008. Even if we have more trouble ahead TODAY is not the day to sell stocks and short the market.

Maybe he has been saying that for a while but this was really irresponsible to say this on a non-business show. The host came back and said that this was not something he would do but I believe having this guest on at this time was a bad idea.


Billy said...

I do not know what time this was announced but I hope that Mike will talk about this on the show tomorrow (10/15).

I want to keep political interjection at a minimum here (full disclosuer - I am a Palin support/voter) but I am very excited about something I read elsewhere.

Mccain wants to drop cap gains tax to 7.5 percent. I believe this is HUGE in terms of people wanting to put money into the market.

Also, he wants to raise the capital loss carry over from 3,000 to 15,000. This would be very helpful to me personally so I support it. This would basically wipe away my losses (carry over) and I would have a fresh start at making gains and paying taxes on them (at 7.5 percent YEA!).

My understanding is that this is temporary (2 years?) and I Assume he has to get this by congress, but I believe that it will be great in terms of getting people into the stock market.


mike norman said...

Guys, I worked for Martin Weiss back for a brief time back in 2002. He publishes something called the "The Safemoney Report." By its very name you get the gist of what he is about: doomsday. Interestingly, back in 2002 Weiss was very bullish on the dollar and I was a major bear (euro was at 80 cents at the time). This end of the world as we know it stuff is his big shtick and you know, fear motivates. That's why he has a huge following.