Robert Shiller of the famed Case-Shiller Index came out only a few days ago stating that housing may not recover for over a decade. As dire as this may sound, we have a similar example to look at in Japan. It wasn’t like he stated this just to cause a stir but talked about compressed household wages, record low mortgage rates, and a large pipeline of distressed inventory. Even though real estate values are now down 35 percent from their peak taking values back to 2002 (a lost decade) we would need to increase housing values nationwide by 50+ percent to get back to the peak. This is what he was discussing about home values not recovering to that price point. Japan has had well over two decades of a depressed real estate market and values today still do not approach the peak values reached in the early 1990s in spite of their central bank pushing rates even lower than theFederal Reserve. In fact, prices are holding closer to the trough. Examining the data we already find ourselves into one lost decade. Is another possible?Read the rest at Dr. Housing Bubble
What if housing doesn’t recover for another decade? When the young cannot afford to buy a home from their parents. The reemerging trend between the US and Japan housing bubbles.
by Dr. Housing Bubble
Something to consider before we start to celebrate the housing bottom being in (if indeed it is).
This is a symptom indicating we are in a depression instead of a normal kind of recession. The cause? Too much private debt, and the deleveraging process takes a long time to work out.
Unfortunately, the US is not making much of a dent in it where it counts, young people who usually start families and buy houses. They are expanding student debt instead.
3 comments:
the majority of young people I talk to (and I include myself in that group), say they would love to have kids and a family and a house but they just can't afford it and are concerned about the finances of a family and so (like myself currently) are choosing to not have families or if they do (by accident or otherwise) they are not necessarily buying houses or if they are, they are sacrificing somewhere else.
The dynamics of a falling economy (society?)....before 2008 I literally wasn't able to conceive of how a society and/or economy could really fall apart/disappear, but now I can very clearly see how it happens. It's amazing b/c the heart and core of the entire problem lies in a lack of intelligent courage that combines the body, heart, and mind. It's not a "we the people" statement or cure but rather an "I the people" cure, where each man, woman, child is fully responsible for themselves, and in claiming that we automatically create a "group" of individuals already naturally and inherently unified at their existential level. No protesting and banners necessary.
Instead of sacrificing a family, I sacrificed a home. Living in a 3 generation house.
Working out pretty good but it is not like how I grew up.
good on ya mate!!! I love to hear it.
Working out pretty good but it is not like how I grew up.
That's the thing I hear all the time from friends (and myself)....and it's that we all want our kids to have the same kind of youth experience that we had growing up....and unfortunately or not it just seems that life is hard to find these days. Strange, however I look at kids and I see nothing but hope and a good future ahead of us. Thank God for that!
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