Monday, March 25, 2024

Monetary Sovereignty and Mark Blyth’s critique of MMT — Peter May

And there is indeed a ‘current account constraint’ – if you are a small open economy you need things you can sell in order to get the stuff you don’t have.

MMT really applies, as many others suggest, uniquely to the US as it issues the world’s reserve currency.

If you are not the US and your Sovereign Currency is weak, it will drive import inflation so it really means that your currency is not properly sovereign.
MMT does recognize this constraint by treating it with more nuance.

MMT's basic framework includes the priority or primacy of real resources over government finances for all countries including those that issue their own currency and don't undertake obligations is other currencies.

MMT acknowledges that a country must either be able to produce is own real resources, which implies having the required natural resources and well as the industrial power, technology, etc. that go into production. This necessitates having ample factors that not all countries enjoy and probably every country including the US is exposed to in some way. 

If a country does not have the means of production for self-sufficiency or cannot acquire financial resources from exports, then it will have to either pay for imports by issuance, which may have an effect on the exchange rate, which in turn may affect the inflation rate.

This implies that any country, even through "monetarily sovereign," is constrained by real resources limitations that may the general prices level.

While a monetarily sovereign country can issue all the currency in wants to infinity, there are consequences based on availability of real resources that boil down to an inflation constraint. This includes the exchange rate, hence imported inflation.

There is also the issue of jobs. To the degree that imports are real benefits they also export jobs through labor embedded in imports. MMT addresses that through economic policy and specifically through an MMT JG as a universal job guarantee that also acts as a price anchor.

In other words, it's complicated (highly nuanced).
Peter May

There are other factors involved including geopolitical. From the time of Adam Smith, economics has focused on trade. The objective of economics in the colonial world was for the periphery (colonies) to send natural resources and agricultural produce to the core (colonialist countries) where technology was reserved and industry was developed for producing finished goods. Finished consumer goods were exported by to the colonies to be paid in specie, while capital goods exportation was restricted.

This condition still exists to a degree as the following post shows. China has the needed USD reserves to purchase goods and services from the US but is restricted from doing so in some important cases where the US desires to continue the previous system by protecting the core through keeping the periphery weak. But China can play that game too since it is no longer a colony even though it is not yet considered to be a developed economy. Trade suffers as a consequence, affecting the global economy.
  • China introduced new guidelines to replace Intel, AMD chips and Microsoft Windows in government computers with domestic alternatives.
  • The move is part of China's "xinchuang" strategy to achieve technological independence and reduce reliance on foreign technology.
  • Analysts predict faster adoption of domestic server processors compared to PCs due to a less complex software ecosystem.
Oilprice
Chip War Escalates as China Bans Intel, AMD Chips in Government Computers
ZeroHedge


16 comments:

Peter Pan said...

MMT only applies when...

Egypt can't feed itself, yet their people haven't died of famine.

Well, famine only applies when...

Resource constraints only apply when...

Gravity only applies when...

QED only applies when...

Peter Pan said...

Why should we bother with anyone who goes on about a "reserve" currency?

Footsoldier said...

"And there is indeed a ‘current account constraint’ – if you are a small open economy you need things you can sell in order to get the stuff you don’t have."

Is bull shit !

Money is what allows the UK to pay for imports. That's why we have a trade deficit. In reality the trade is balanced. The export product Blythe is missing is 'Sterling savings'. Otherwise the exchange rate would have moved to eliminate the physical deficit.

International competition stops nations getting ALL their imports for no exports i.e. By using sterling promises to buy them.

You get the rest with exports the rest of the world will find hard to substitute like Scottish Whisky or green energy exports.

In all international trades there is an end customer with a currency they intend to spend and an end producer with a currency they want to hold. The customer pays with their currency and the producer receives the currency they want to hold. Or no deal will happen.

There's 2 things you can do in addition to the above.

1. Implement a Job Guarantee and full employment. Exporters will be " Q " ing around the block to sell you stuff that you need. You make sure you get what you need Or they don't get the sales as you can play countries off one another to get what you want.

This will also increase FDI which has the neat side effect of keeping your currency quite strong.

2. Take advantage of the exporting their way to growth countries. They NEED to keep exporting or their job losses will mount up.

So you offer very little in return apart from sterling promises. They'll be more than happy to accept that deal as long as their exports keep flowing.

Why Russia has Rupees coming out of their ears at the moment. They export to India and get very little in return but are happy to hold rupee promises instead.

There are many ways to get the imports you need apart from swapping goods and services for them.

Footsoldier said...

" you are not the US and your Sovereign Currency is weak, it will drive import inflation so it really means that your currency is not properly sovereign. "

Is also Bullshit !

1. If imports become more expensive people stop buying them and look for cheaper alternatives. Especially if you are on a set monthly income.

So that moves the pressure right back on the exporter if they want to keep their market share.

Irish exporters were going bankrupt after the £ fell during the Brexit vote. Britain didn't suffer at all unless you wanted to holiday abroad.

The key point is that if a currency moves down so that imports become ‘more expensive’, then the ‘inflation’ that goes off is a distributional response that tries to eliminate some of those imports so that the exchange demands equalise. That also eliminates somebody else’s exports.

The important thing to remember is that when a currency goes down, all the others in the world go up in relation to it and nations that rely upon exports (export led nations) start to lose trade - which depresses their own economy.

Any one of those other economies can intervene in the foreign exchange markets, purchase the ‘spare’ currency and that will halt the slide for everybody. And all exporters to an import nation have a central bank with infinite capacity to do that.

2. Exporters need to export and the central banks that support that policy with ’liquidity operations’ will ultimately halt any slide for any important export destination - either explicitly or implicitly through their own banking system.

Export led nations need to export or the job losses will mount up. They'll do everything they can including slash their prices to ensure the floating rate adjusts in their favour.

Export led nations like to have the weak currency and their customers to have the strong currency as they'll buy more of their stuff.

When the rouble collapsed at the start of the war every other currency got stronger against it and their export sales boomed. China and India and friendly countries went on a spending spree.




Footsoldier said...

Blythe is trapped in fixed exchange rate thinking

HERE:

https://billmitchell.org/blog/?p=32931

Determined to die in the same trench as Ramanan.

Brexit fx taught him nothing.

Footsoldier said...

It is as bad as this from the chuckle brothers

Trouble ahead for Bidenomics

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=5-mAlOv-m_o&t=615s

Never in human history has so much shit been spoken in such a short space of time.

The chuckle brothers think the US is Like their home country of Greece.



Footsoldier said...

To bounce back within a year of complete total shut down is quite remarkable when you think about it.

Big fiscal was a big win for Americans

https://stayathomemacro.substack.com/p/big-fiscal-is-a-big-win-for-americans

Imagine if the money scarcity crowd has been in charge it would have been another lost decade.

Footsoldier said...

The interviewer at Warick university tried to get the GOTCHA moment.

It is the best interview I've seen regarding the virus. Excellent infact.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=LGlqnHTBP3I&pp=ygUQc3RlcGhhbmllIGtlbHRvbg%3D%3D


Even the interviewer realised by the end of the interview he wasn't going to get the GOTCHA moment and things were even more nuanced than he thought.

Footsoldier said...

Biden is going to get hammered in the election. Not just because of his foreign policies. They are terrible at promoting their economic successes.

Voters have already been brainwashed into believing his economic policies were a disaster by the media. Nothing will change their minds.

The money scarcity crowd have won the important debate again. With the media they own.

Tom Hickey said...

Biden is going to get hammered in the election. Not just because of his foreign policies. They are terrible at promoting their economic successes.

There is actually a bit of problem here and it is not a small one. Many people are experiencing "inflation" even though it is not reflected in CPI. Food prices are very noticeably higher, for instance. Rent is also an issue, as in "The rent is too damn high."

This is anecdotal since it is difficult to measure. But it seems to be making a difference in that it makes people more inclined to listen to those opposing to the story that the economy is doing great under Biden (which econ stats show).

Seniors are also well aware that the SS COLA (cost-of-living adjustment) did not cover increased costs.

Other examples can be cited.

The big plus for Biden is that gas prices have not risen in tandem with food, for example, where price increases are in many cases in the double digits. If gas prices would rise, the sentiment is that he would be in big trouble for reelection.

Footsoldier said...

He's in trouble anyway Tom. Foreign policy and he's already lost the debate on the economy.

If the money scarcity crowd were in charge there would be millions more unemployed and another lost decade. Being unemployed doesn't protect you against inflation.

That was the choice work and deal with inflation and still have a job. Or be unemployed and still have to deal with inflation.

But his team haven't even begun to explain any of it. Because he can't string a paragraph together without making an arse of it.

Stephanie explains it beautifully in that Warwick university interview. That drum should have been beat every month for the last 2 years.

The money scarcity crowd have already won regardless of gas prices.Truth is I don't even want him to win he is a mad man. Trump isn't really a money scarcity guy. Might bring peace.

However, it will set MMT back 10 years at least.



Matt Franko said...

It’s back over $3.50 here now…

Matt Franko said...

MMT currently won’t acknowledge the “inflation “ problem… due to political reasons…

Matt Franko said...

Port of Baltimore shut down going to also be “inflationary” short term…

Footsoldier said...

MMT currently won’t acknowledge the “inflation “ problem… due to political reasons…

Watch the interview at Warwick that is all they acknowledged.

There was no GOTCHA moment.

Footsoldier said...

Voters have been brainwashed about it. As they never had to suffer what the money scarcity guys would have inflicted on them. Don't have to experience another lost decade and huge job losses.

They are so spoiled in the West they moan about a little bit of inflation. The whole economy was shut down ffs.

Oh boy did the media make hay with it. While completely ignoring the alternative. What that would have looked like.

The money scarcity guys don't give a shit about job losses as they actually believe people can be moved around the economy like ignots of steel. Believe the private sector is always sitting ready with the cheque book open ready to hire the unemployed. Which is never the case.