"We will destroy Lebanon..." Michael Katz, MoD of Israel in Tweet yesterday — Col. W. Patrick Lang

The IDF appears to have overcome its long-standing fear of "another 2006" and to be preparing for war against Hizbullah and indeed against all of Lebanon....

Will Iran come in?

Sic Semper Tyrannis
"We will destroy Lebanon..." Michael Katz, MoD of Israel in Tweet yesterday
Col. W. Patrick Lang, US Army (ret.)

At the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lang was the Defense Intelligence Officer (DIO) for the Middle East, South Asia and counter-terrorism, and later, the first Director of the Defense Humint Service. At the DIA, he was a member of the Defense Senior Executive Service. He participated in the drafting of National Intelligence Estimates. From 1992 to 1994, all the U.S. military attachés worldwide reported to him. During that period, he also briefed President George H. W. Bush at the White House, as he had during Operation Desert Storm.

He was also the head of intelligence analysis for the Middle East for seven or eight years at that institution. He was the head of all the Middle East and South Asia analysis in DIA for counter-terrorism for seven years. For his service in the DIA, Lang received the Presidential Rank Award of Distinguished Executive. — Wikipedia

UPDATE

Looks like the Israelis may have changed their mind.

Reuters

Israeli military says current hostilities with Hezbollah apparently over

But what about Hezbollah?

Zero Hedge
Hezbollah Will Respond To Israel: But When? How? And At What Cost?
Elijah Magnier, Middle East based chief international war correspondent for Al Rai Media

Zero Hedge — Iran Sanctions Fallout: China Takes Over French Share In Giant Iran Gas Project

The world just got a lot more complicated.

When it comes to the Middle East, China has not been shy about its recent ambitions to expand its geopolitical influence in the Gulf region: Just last week we reported that the Chinese Ambassador to Syria, Qi Qianjin, shocked Middle East pundits and observers by indicating the Chinese military may fill the void left in the wake of the collapse of ISIS - and most regional armies - and directly assist the Syrian Army in an upcoming major offensive on jihadist-held Idlib province.…

And having staked a military claim in Syria, China was next set to expand its national interest in that other key regional nation which has been the source of so much consternation to its neighbors and world powers in recent months and which has emerged as a key source of crude oil exports to Beijing: Iran.

It did so today when China’s state-owned energy giant, CNPC - the world's third largest oil and gas company by revenue behind Saudi Aramco and the National Iranian Oil Company - finally took over the share in Iran’s multi-billion dollar South Pars gas project held by France’s Total, Iran's official news agency Shana reported on Saturday....

China is making a move.

The global plot is thickening. Fireworks sure to follow.

Zero Hedge
Iran Sanctions Fallout: China Takes Over French Share In Giant Iran Gas Project

Tyler Durden

A "Tour d'horizon" of the ME — Lang's opinion

Comprehensive update for those following MENA affairs.

Sic Semper Tyrannis
A "Tour d'horizon" of the ME - Lang's opinion

Col. W. Patrick Lang, US Army (ret.)

At the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lang was the Defense Intelligence Officer (DIO) for the Middle East, South Asia and counter-terrorism, and later, the first Director of the Defense Humint Service. At the DIA, he was a member of the Defense Senior Executive Service. He participated in the drafting of National Intelligence Estimates. From 1992 to 1994, all the U.S. military attachés worldwide reported to him. During that period, he also briefed President George H. W. Bush at the White House, as he had during Operation Desert Storm.

He was also the head of intelligence analysis for the Middle East for seven or eight years at that institution. He was the head of all the Middle East and South Asia analysis in DIA for counter-terrorism for seven years. For his service in the DIA, Lang received the Presidential Rank Award of Distinguished Executive. — Wikipedia

Emile Nakhleh — Inauspicious Anniversaries and Lessons Unlearned

Sad story of American liberal interventionism putatively based on spreading freedom and democracy gone wrong in the Middle East, told by an insider. Is the US getting ready to repeat that mistake in Iran after Iraq has been generally admitted as a strategic blunder?

LobeLog
Inauspicious Anniversaries and Lessons Unlearned

Emile Nakhleh | Senior Intelligence Service officer and Director of the Political Islam Strategic Analysis Program at the Central Intelligence Agency, a member of the Council on Foreign Relations, and Research Professor and Director of the Global and National Security Policy Institute at the University of New Mexico

See also

Sunni-Shi'a rivalry.

FDD's Long War Journal
Hamza bin Laden warns of Shiite expansion in the Middle East

Thomas Joscelyn

See also

Tom Dispatch
Tomgram: William Hartung, Selling Arms as if There Were No Tomorrow
William Hartung | Director of the Arms and Security Project at the Center for International Policy, formerly Senior Research Fellow in the New America Foundation's American Strategy Program, and former director of the Arms Trade Resource Center at the World Policy Institute

Viktor Katona — Russia Is Taking Over Syria’s Oil And Gas

In accordance with an energy cooperation framework agreement signed in late January, Russia will have exclusive rights to produce oil and gas in Syria.

The agreement goes significantly beyond that, stipulating the modalities of the rehabilitation of damaged rigs and infrastructure, energy advisory support, and training a new generation of Syrian oilmen. Still, the main international aspect and the key piece of this move is the final and unconditional consolidation of Russian interests in the Middle East....

Details follow. It is a daunting task to rebuild Syria's destroyed infrastructure. Iran and China are pitching in, while the US is trying to hang on as best it can without legitimacy.

Oil Price
Russia Is Taking Over Syria’s Oil And Gas
Viktor Katona | Group Physical Trader at MOL Group and Expert at the Russian International Affairs Council, currently based in Budapest

See also

There are even more deals in the pipe than this. As the energy ties slowly but steadily grow, the need for international cooperation in matters of security and defense in states like Syria, Iran, and Iraq also rise. For a long time the United States has been the big military power player in the region, but now with these developments, the West is being eased out of its decades-long role.

Russia Feed
Russia seals key energy pacts with Saudis, shaking up US Mideast dominance

Seraphim Hanisch

Also

The occupied Syrian Golan Heights will “remain in Israel’s hands forever”, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has declared durin a meeting with UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.

SouthFront

Netanyahu: Israel Will ‘Forever’ Control Golan Heights

Bill Mitchell — The IMF and the Germans wreaking havoc in Northern Africa

Some years ago, I started collecting information about the so-called Maghreb countries, which typically refers to the region spanned by Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia, although sometimes Libya and Mauritania are also included in the aggregation. You will find it referred to as the Barbary Coast in English literature. I was interested (as a long-term project when I get old :-)) to write a book about how nations broke away from the yoke of colonialism only to fall into the hands of the IMF and the World Bank, which over time were becoming the leading attack dogs for the neoliberal domination of governments. That book is coming in the future. But I have also been interested in the way the Eurozone Member States have moved into Northern Africa to extract as much surplus as they can from exploiting the resources these African nations have. You know a nation is in trouble when there are nightly riots which were motivated by economic desperation and a pernicious new (so-called) Finance Law, which became law on January 1, 2018. I am, of course, talking about Tunisia. With high levels of unemployment and underemployment and a lack of job opportunities particularly severe in the interior regions, the IMF decided, in its infinite neoliberal stupidity, to force the Tunisian government to impose a harsh austerity program including pushing up value added taxes which have had the effect of driving up medicine, food and energy prices and impacting on those most affected by the lack of jobs. Smart thinking! The riots have now followed.

Classical liberalism, imperialism, colonialism. Neoliberalism, neo-imperialism, neocolonialism.

This is a paradox of liberalism that emerges when political liberalism is equated with or prioritized over political liberal. The result is "bourgeois liberalism," or the rulership of the ownership class through its cronies and minions.

This is rationalized as promoting the international liberal order and spreading freedom and democracy.

Bill Mitchell – billy blog
The IMF and the Germans wreaking havoc in Northern Africa
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Moon of Alabama — Lebanon - Hariri's Resignation - The Opening Shot Of The Saudi War On Hizbullah

More twists and turns in the snake pit. Here we go again.

Yesterday [Lebanese Prime Minister] Hariri was visited in Beirut by Ali Velayati, a top advisor of the supreme leader Khamenei of Iran. The Saudis did not like either. Thamer's plan was set into motion. They sent a private jet and hauled Hariri to Riyadh. There the Saudi clown prince Mohammad bin Salman gave Hariri his resignation statement (written by Thamer?) to be read by him on Saudi TV. 

Irony alert: The Lebanese PM (with a Saudi passport) resigns on order of Saudi Arabia, in Saudi Arabia, on Saudi Arabian TV. In his Saudi written resignation statement (excerpts) he accuses Iran of foreign meddling in Lebanese politics. 

(Hariri also suddenly claims that there was an assassination planned against him in Lebanon. This is nonsense. The Lebanese internal security organization says it has no knowledge of such a plot. Hariri needs an excuse to stay away from Lebanon and from the wrath of his followers. Saudi media are trying to create some fantastic story from that assassination claim. But there is nothing evident to back it up.)

Moon of Alabama
Lebanon - Hariri's Resignation - The Opening Shot Of The Saudi War On Hizbullah

b

See also

Fort Russ
"US and Saudi Arabia forced the Lebanese PM to resign in an attempt to counter Hezbollah" - Iranian official
Breakingnews.sy - - translated by Samer Hussein

Also at Fort Russ:

Expert: Hariri's resignation is a sign that Saudis and U.S-Israel are pursuing a disastrous 'Plan B'

Analysis by Marwa Osman, Lecturer at the Lebanese International University and Maaref University and former host of the political show “The Middle East Stream”

The Western version:

Reuters
Lebanon PM Hariri resigns, assails Iran and Hezbollah
Angus McDowall, Tom Perry, Sarah Dadouch

Also

Israel is operating militarily within Syria.

Israel’s military said on Friday it was ready to protect a frontier village in Syria held by the Syrian government, where Damascus said jihadist rebels exploded a car killing at least nine people.

The statement was an unusually explicit Israeli pledge to intervene in the war in Syria, where Israeli officials are voicing deeper alarm at the role of Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah, which are fighting alongside the Syrian government.


The Israeli air force says it has struck arms convoys of the Syrian military and Hezbollah nearly 100 times in recent years. Its most recent strike was on Wednesday according to the Syrian government.

Reuters

Israeli military says ready to protect Druze village in Syria

Graham E. Fuller — Washington Does Have a Clear ME Policy—It’s Just the Wrong One

What, then, is US policy in the Middle East—under Trump, Obama, Bush and Clinton (and even earlier)? When all the rhetoric has been stripped away, we can identity quite clear, precise, and fairly consistent major strategic policy positions.

First, Washington accedes to almost anything that Israel wants. This is an untouchable posture, a third rail, beyond any debate or discussion lest we anger the powerful Zionist lobby of AIPAC and end up being labelled “anti-Semitic.” The New York Times does not even allow us to know that In Israel itself these issues are indeed seriously debated—but never in the US. Small tactical issues aside, there is zero American discussion about whether the far-right government of Israel should be the lode-star of US policy-making in the Middle East.

-Second, we oppose all Iranian actions and seek to weaken that state. Not surprisingly this reflects a key Israeli position on the Middle East as well. Admittedly the US has its own grudges against Iran going back a long way, while the Iranians bear grudges against the US going back well before that....

But what about “American values” that are often invoked as goals—such as support for democracy and human rights? Yes, these values are worthy, but they receive support in practice only as long as they do not conflict with the paramount hierarchy of the main goals stated above. And they usually do conflict with those goals....

Graham E. Fuller

Washington Does Have a Clear ME Policy—It’s Just the Wrong One
Graham E. Fuller | adjunct professor of history at Simon Fraser University, formerly vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the CIA, and a former senior political scientist at RAND

Kenny Hodgart — Turkish market crumbles as Erdogan overreaches

This portends to have wide-reaching ramifications. Turkey is already on the outs with Germany, and now the US. 

Is Turkey long for NATO? 

It's fairly certain that Erdogan blames US covert operations for the coup attempted against him.

Asia Times
Turkish market crumbles as Erdogan overreaches
Kenny Hodgart

Alastair Crooke — Trump and the New Mideast Paradox

President Trump got excited over a Saudi-Israeli scheme to combat Iran, but Trump’s cooperation with Russian President Putin on Syria goes in a profoundly different direction, as ex-British diplomat Alastair Crooke explains.

Trump is either a genius — or crazy. There is a fine line between the two.

It's impossible to figure where he is headed based on what he says. His only consistency is in changing it.

Well, we already knew this reality show promised to be a cliffhanger.

Consortium News
Trump and the New Mideast Paradox

Alastair Crooke

Also

Dances with Bears
MELANIA TRUMP AND SIGABA ALLOW PUTIN TO DECODE TRUMP = TRUMP TOO DEFECTIVE AND IMPOTENT TO MAKE OR KEEP AGREEMENTS, STATE DEPARTMENT WORKING GROUPS ARE LAST HOPE
John Helmer

RT — Israel will be ‘destroyed’ if Trump sparks war in Middle East – Iran defense minister

The Iranian defense minister says Donald Trump’s election has led to "unease," and that any war with Iran caused by his administration would "destroy" Israel and smaller Gulf states. It comes amid concern Trump will pull out of the nuclear pact agreed with Tehran last year.

Hossein Dehghan said on Sunday that the possibility that Trump may take a "different path" regarding the nuclear deal arranged between Tehran and six world powers last year has led to "unease, particularly among Persian Gulf countries," the semi-official Mehr news agency reported, as cited by Reuters....

If such a war were to occur, it "would mean the destruction of the Zionist regime [Israel]...and will engulf the whole region and could lead to a world war," Dehghan said.
He went on to note that city-states on the southern shore of the Persian Gulf would also be destroyed, "because they lack popular support." That statement was reportedly in reference to Western-allied Gulf states such as the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Qatar.

However, Dehghan admitted it seems unlikely that Trump would take "strong action" against Iran, considering his "character and that he measures the cost of everything in dollars."...

War with Iran in which Iran retaliates would likely drive oil price into the stratosphere and cripple the world economy.

Trump is getting off to a rocky start with Iran and China.

RT
Israel will be ‘destroyed’ if Trump sparks war in Middle East – Iran defense minister

Robert Parry — The Need to Hold Saudi Arabia Accountable

Background that is important in light of Donald Trump's stance on Iran, as well as that of Lt. General Flynn, Trump's choice for National Security Advisor and appointment of General Mattis as Secretary of Defense.

One of Official Washington’s favorite “group thinks” is to insist that Iran is the “chief sponsor of terrorism,” but the reality is that Saudi Arabia is much guiltier and U.S. officials know it, says Robert Parry.…

Parry shows that it is impossible for anyone in the deep state or the military not to know that Saudi Arabia is the chief state sponsor of terrorism and not Iran. Iran is opposed by Israel and the Wahhabi-Salafi Sunni states, Saudi Arabia and Qatar.

Is Donald Trump either misinformed, or carrying water for Israel?  But if that is so, why would he be backing off replacing Assad in Syria, which IsraelI officials have stated as the number one goal?

Are the generals are also misinformed (which is highly unlikely), backing Israel also, or just uttering a shibboleth as a secret handshake to be admitted to the game.

Consortium News
The Need to Hold Saudi Arabia Accountable
Robert Parry

See also

Some of President-elect Trump’s national security appointees are part of Official Washington’s “we-hate-Iran” group think, raising concerns about another Mideast war, notes ex-CIA analyst Paul R. Pillar.

Trump and His Iran-Haters

Paul R. Pillar

Philip Giraldi — Fake News Versus No News

How Russia is pilloried while real news about Israel goes unreported

The Unz Review
Fake News Versus No News
Philip Giraldi | Executive Director of the Council for the National Interest and former counter-terrorism specialist and intelligence officer of the CIA.

Voltarie Network — Egypt supports the Iraqi, Libyan and Syrian armies

Egypt comes out as being all in. Another poke in the eye of the globalizers.

On November 23, 2016, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi speaking at the RTP Portuguese TV channel said: "There should be international support for the national armies of Libya, Iraq and Syria, to ensure the security of their countries." President el-Sissi thus broke a hitherto well-kept secret: Egypt dispatched weapons to the loyalist forces of these three countries despite the Saudi threats.

Voltarie Network
Egypt supports the Iraqi, Libyan and Syrian armies

Paul R. Pillar — US Escalates War Role in Yemen

Backgrounder on doing more stupid stuff. 

Pillar argues that the US has no national interest in Yemen. In spite of this US policy there is being driven by the Saudis, and the US is supplying the KSA with weapons and intelligence.

The US and its Western allies have a simplistic view of the Middle East, whereas the dynamics are driven by local and regional interests that have nothing to do with US interests. The US interests in the Middle East are energy and Israel. Anything not directly related to those interests involve embroiling the US in unnecessary conflicts of choice.

Consortium News
US Escalates War Role in Yemen

Paul R. Pillar, former CIA veteran analyst

RT — Direct aggression by US against Damascus to cause 'tectonic shift' in Middle East - Moscow

“If the US launches a direct aggression against Damascus and the Syrian Army, it would cause a terrible, tectonic shift not only in the country, but in the entire region,” Maria Zakharova said during a talk show, which is to be aired fully later on Saturday and has been cited by RIA.

With no government in Damascus, there will be a power vacuum in Syria, which “so-called moderates, who are, in reality, not moderate at all but just terrorists of all flavors, would fill; and there will be no dealing with them,” the diplomat predicted. 

“And later it would be aggravated the way it happened in Iraq. We know that [Saddam Hussein’s] Iraqi Army became the basis of the Islamic State. Everything that both the [US-led] coalition and Russia are fighting now stems from it,” Zakharova said.

RT
Direct aggression by US against Damascus to cause 'tectonic shift' in Middle East - Moscow

John Helmer — The New Byzantine Alliance

Monumental shift in geopolitical alignment shaping up.

Russian sources are non-committal on what role US military and intelligence agencies played during the July 15 events at the Incirlik airbase and elsewhere to encourage, or not to discourage, the attempt at overthrowing Erdogan. What is certain now, as Erdogan tries to mop up, according to Greek and Cypriot analysts, is that Turkey has turned against the US and the NATO alliance. “Turkey is now moving away from western dependence,” says a well-informed region source who asks not to be identified. “This makes sense geopolitically because the west has lost control in the Middle East. Other close western allies in the region, like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Israel, are becoming autonomous, in the sense that they don’t obey the US. This is because the US can no longer act as a hegemon. Washington can’t dictate, or even recommend solutions to conflicts or rivalries, like Iraq, Syria, Libya, or Palestine. Now, with or without direct US involvement in the Turkish coup, Erdogan sees his chance to make Turkey more autonomous, so he is taking it.”

Russian sources agree. Referring to Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland (right), whose plan of attack against Russia in Ukraine, Turkey, Syria, and Cyprus have been reported here and here, a Moscow source concludes:“The Nuland plots have all failed. The US can no longer talk to the Turks. Losing Turkey to Erdogan and his Islamists also means the US can dictate no longer in the region. You can’t expect the Americans will take it lying down. There’s no government in Washington right now. But if Clinton wins, there will be a US fight-back. It will be too late.”

Dances with Bears
The New Byzantine Alliance
John Helmer

Gordon M. Hahn — Obama’s Muslim Brotherhood Strategy, the ‘War’ Against Jihadism, and Russia’s Syria Intervention, Part 3: Obama’s America and Erdogan’s Turkey

Backgrounder on Erdogan's Turkey. Flirting with the devil.

Obama’s Muslim Brotherhood Strategy, the ‘War’ Against Jihadism, and Russia’s Syria Intervention, Part 3: Obama’s America and Erdogan’s Turkey
Gordon M. Hahn

Ollie Richardson — Partitions, Coups, and Colonies: A Timeline for the Middle-East

Backgrounder on colonialism and the Middle East. It' difficult to understand the present situation without knowing the history of the region, the major players, and the stakes of the game. This would be of minor interest but for the oil and gas resources in abundance there, which gives the region not only economic interest but also military. Militaries run on oil, and the US is military is the largest single consumer of oil globally, along with global maritime transport. Ships and aircraft guzzle oil. So this has direct impact on control of the seas and air. For example, the British empire rested on control of the seas, and the American "empire" on control of the seas and air. As a result the region plays a major part in the chessboard of the Great Game of geopolitics and geostrategy.

While not a definite list, the aim of the timeline is to focus on the countries that are still heavily involved in conflicts in the 21st century. These include: Syria, Libya, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Lebanon, Egypt, and other nations such as Algeria and Tunisia (peripheral to Libya). The timeline excludes countries in the gulf and most of Africa, as they have shown to be merely assets of Western intelligence, usually with western-friendly monarchies or despotic regimes. The aforementioned countries in and around the Levant have sincerely tried to retain sovereignty and independence, but seem to be consistently thwarted in these attempts by Anglo-Atlanticist nations and their proxy forces.

Snake pit.

Fort Russ
Partitions, Coups, and Colonies: A Timeline for the Middle-East
Ollie Richardson for Fort Russ

Gregory R. Copley — Does The U.S. Have A Middle East Strategy Going Forward?

But a closer examination of U.S. policies, now almost entirely dictated by the Obama White House, shows no cohesive national goals or policies exist, but rather an ad hoc set of actions and reactions, which are largely dictated either by ideological positions, ignorance, whim, or perceived expedience.

This is unique in U.S. history.

Naked Capitalism
Does The U.S. Have A Middle East Strategy Going Forward?

Gregory R. Copley, a senior level advisor to governments around the world on national security, intelligence, and national management issues, and author of over 30 books, including “The Art of Victory” (2006) and “UnCivilization: Urban Geopolitics in a Time of Chaos” (2012). Copley is currently the President of the International Strategic Studies Association, based in Washington, DC, and Editor-in-Chief of the “Defense & Foreign Affairs” group of publications, including the government-only intelligence service, the Global Information System.