The Saker interviews A.B. Abrams about the geostrategic developments in Asia The Saker

I recently received a copy of a most interesting book, A.B. Abrams’ “Power and Primacy: the history of western intervention in Asia” and as soon as I started reading it I decided that I wanted to interview the author and ask him about what is taking place in Asia in our times. This was especially interesting to me since Putin has embarked on the Russian version of Obama’s “pivot to Asia“, with the big difference that Putin’s pivot has already proven to be a fantastic success, whereas Obama’s was a dismal failure. I am most grateful to A.B. Abrams for his time and expertise....

This is best article on the current state of geopolitics and geostrategy I have run across recently. Abrams provides a very objective assessment.

The Vineyard of the Saker
The Saker interviews A.B. Abrams about the geostrategic developments in Asia
The Saker
Crossposted at the Unz Review

See also

The Western powers have to acknowledge the rise of China and either include the country in the hegemonic core or be prepared for the emergence of a counter hegemonic power, writes David Lane, Emeritus Fellow of Emmanuel College, Cambridge University....

Valdai Analytics
US-China Relations: Trade Wars or Countervailing Powers?
David Lane

Sputnik — US NATO Envoy Claims Russia is Trying to 'Flip' Turkey, Other Allies to Its Side

Ha ha. After the US flipped Ukraine toward NATO? More projection.

Sputnik International
US NATO Envoy Claims Russia is Trying to 'Flip' Turkey, Other Allies to Its Side

See also At Sputnik

French Minister Accuses US of Trying to Divide France, Germany Amid Tariffs Row

Venezuelan oil

Latin America heating up.

Fort Russ
China does not fear conflict with US over Venezuela

Maduro prepares military for US invasion
Paul Antonopoulos

Moon of Alabama — Trump Ends The Nuclear Deal With Iran - What's Next?

Analysis.

"b" doesn't mention it, but all analysis needs to focus on the big picture, in which China is the only adversary that the US perceives as an actual threat to permanent US global hegemony. Russia is just a sideshow in this. 

Therefore, every analysis should ask what US policy and actions imply with respect to China. 

An obvious economic goal of the US is to be able to shut down the export of energy to China. This is an overarching aspect of what's up in the Middle East and Central Asia.

"b" does make another point is highly significant. The US is alone in this policy shift, and the country itself is split on it. 

It doesn't make strategic sense and seems to be another blunder in a region that the US has committed a number of blunders already and mired in unwindable wars. Overreach is how empires fail.

Moon of Alabama
Trump Ends The Nuclear Deal With Iran - What's Next?

b

See also

"b" mentions this.

The US has a history of non honoring its word. This is not only dis honorable but it is also evidence that negotiating with the US is waste of time.

RT
Trump’s decision to withdraw from Iran deal shows US unable to negotiate – Russian Foreign Ministry

See also

I am told that Israeli electronic counter-measure units started a massive jamming effort against air defense assets in Syria three days ago. Israeli ground forces on the Golan Front have been placed on high alert. IMO a false flag attack on Israel is likely. pl

Sic Semper Tyrannis
Israel will now drive the US to war with Iran.
Col. W. Patrick Lang, US Army (ret.)

At the Defense Intelligence Agency, Lang was the Defense Intelligence Officer (DIO) for the Middle East, South Asia and counter-terrorism, and later, the first Director of the Defense Humint Service. At the DIA, he was a member of the Defense Senior Executive Service. He participated in the drafting of National Intelligence Estimates. From 1992 to 1994, all the U.S. military attachés worldwide reported to him. During that period, he also briefed President George H. W. Bush at the White House, as he had during Operation Desert Storm.
He was also the head of intelligence analysis for the Middle East for seven or eight years at that institution. He was the head of all the Middle East and South Asia analysis in DIA for counter-terrorism for seven years. For his service in the DIA, Lang received the Presidential Rank Award of Distinguished Executive. — Wikipedia

Laila Bassam and Anthony Deutsch — U.S. accuses Russia, Syria of tampering with Douma evidence, Moscow denies

Anyone not see this coming?

Similar to unfalsifiability in science?

Oh, and they demand that Assad prove that Syria doesn't have chemical weapons with the inspectors having certified that Syria was clean. Quite obviously, an impossible standard to meet has been erected.

Fake news compounded by false logic. 

And Russia is being sanctioned for assisting Assad, when the US, UK and France just committed the most serious war crime, illegal aggression against a state.

Who said humans are rational? This is crazy.

This is also ridiculous. It would be laughable if it did not create an existential threat for humanity.

Reuters
U.S. accuses Russia, Syria of tampering with Douma evidence, Moscow denies
Laila Bassam and Anthony Deutsch

See also

The Russian envoy to the chemical weapons watchdog group, OPCW, said that non-governmental organizations (NGOs) funded by the UK and US carried out the April 7 chemical attack in the Damascus, Syria suburb of Douma.…

The Russian Envoy says that the controversial "White Helmets" were one of the anti-Assad "pseudo-humanitarian NGOs" which staged the event. As Disobedient Media and others have reported, the White Helmets are funded in large part by the United States....

Zero Hedge
Russia Reveals Who "Staged" Syria Gas Attack, As US Claims Moscow "May Have Tampered" With Site

Tyler Durden

Nicos Panayiotides — The geopolitics beyond the Skripal case

Good backgrounder. Short and to the point. Emphasizes how geopolitics and geostrategy are historically influenced and path-dependent.

Asia Times
The geopolitics beyond the Skripal case

Nicos Panayiotides

See also

Surprisingly good for Newsweek and the US media in general. No scaremongering. Short.

Newsweek
China Military Tells Russia 'We've Come to Support You' Against U.S.

Tom O'Connor

The world just changed. "Putin did it."

Sunday reading.

LobeLog
Unipolar Strategy in a Multipolar World
Paul Pillar

Une parole franche
Missile-gate
Gilbert Doctorow | European Coordinator of The American Committee for East West Accord Ltd.

Russian and Eurasian Politics
Putin’s ‘Missile Speech’: Butter, Guns, and Security Discourse
Gordon M. Hahn, Expert Analyst at Corr Analytics, http://www.canalyt.com and a Senior Researcher at the Center for Terrorism and Intelligence Studies (CETIS), Akribis Group, www.cetisresearch.org.

The Vineyard of the Saker

Putin’s stunning revelations about new Russian weapons systems

The Saker

Moon of Alabama
Russia Shows Off New Weapons - Tells U.S. To "Come Down To Earth"

b

RussiaFeed
Worth a thousand words: Diagrams and charts of new developments in Russia’s defense systems
Seraphim Hanisch

RT
Russia ‘threatens our ability to dominate’ – US general to Congress

Asia Times
The US must harden its response to Putin’s new Cold War

Richard N. Haass | President of the Council on Foreign Relations

The National Interest
Russia's Big Military Buildup: Why Is America So Shocked?

Dave Majumdar | defense editor for The National Interest

 Irrussianality
Artificial conflict
Paul Robinson | Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa

The Vineyard of the Saker
How far can the Americans be pushed?

Ghassan Kadi

Reuters — Turkey to U.S.– end support for Syrian Kurdish YPG or risk confrontation

Any push by Turkish forces toward Manbij, part of a Kurdish-held territory some 100 km (60 miles) east of Afrin, could threaten U.S. plans to stabilize northeast Syria and bring them into direct confrontation with U.S. troops deployed there.

“Those who support the terrorist organization will become a target in this battle,” Deputy Prime Minister Bekir Bozdag said.

“The United States needs to review its solders and elements giving support to terrorists on the ground in such a way as to avoid a confrontation with Turkey,” Bozdag, who also acts as the government’s spokesman, told broadcaster A Haber.

Harsh. All is not well with in NATO.

Reuters
Turkey to U.S.: end support for Syrian Kurdish YPG or risk confrontation
Tuvan Gumrukcu, Dahlia Nehme

Vesti — Head Russian banker speaks out from Davos - "sanctions are a full-scale economic war"

The head of VTB Bank Andrei Kostin, who is currently in Davos at the Economic Forum, has spoken out in relation to the situation surrounding Western sanctions against Russia.

"What we modestly call sanctions, in fact, is a full-scale economic war that aims to put tremendous pressure on our economy, to restrain its growth, to worsen the living conditions of our people, to worsen our economic development, and thus to influence the domestic political situation in our country, including the elections and the further course of our country's leadership," he said.

"Sanctions are a planned, systemic, comprehensive work targetted at a number of industries", Andrei Kostin believes. However, in his opinion, one should not be afraid as Russia, "of course, has a set of means to counteract this."

Fort Russ
Head Russian banker speaks out from Davos - "sanctions are a full-scale economic war"

Vesti - by Inessa Sinchougova

Unintended consequences.

TASS
Western companies are losing Russian market, energy minister notes

RUeconomics — Germans tell NATO that a war with Russia is "suicide" - they would know

The German Contra Magazin called on NATO to understand that a war against Russia is "suicide". Readers of the publication noted that Germany remembers this especially well....
In NATO, there are forces that are convinced of the correctness of a "military solution" of confrontation with Russia. However, anyone who attacks the Russians "actually commits suicide" because of the strength of Russian weapons and Moscow's readiness to use them in case of a threat to its security. An author of Contra Magazin, Ernst Planner, singles out the Iskander-M complexes, capable of "flying to Warsaw in two minutes, and four to Berlin."

In addition, NATO defense equipment is obsolete when it comes to the Iskanders, as they can fly in the mesosphere.
According to the journalist, NATO should have no doubts that the Russians, whose patriotism has increased against the backdrop of confrontation with the West, will "press the button" to defend their homeland.

In this case, the "madmen" who started the war, whether the US or the "nuclear dwarfs" Britain and France, will not stand a chance. Russia can destroy any external threat, and realist politicians (Planner places Trump and his associates among them) are well aware of this.

Some Germans getting concerned about trigger-happy Americans?

In trying to gain control over Russia, the US is more likely to loss control over Europe.

Fort Russ
Germans tell NATO that a war with Russia is "suicide" - they would know

RUeconomics - translated by Inessa Sinchougova

See also

The British Armed Forces are lagging behind the Russian army, as stated by the chief of the British General Staff, Nick Carter.
Carter stressed the seriousness of the threat, which, in his opinion, is represented by Russian cruise missiles successfully utilised in Syria. London does not have any protection from them, the head of the General Staff believes.

Won't result in a change in policy but rather increased military spending to fuel a new arms race.

Britain concerned about superiority of Russian Armed Forces
RIA - translated by Inessa Sinchougova

See also

Professor Robinson comments.

In a happy coincidence of timing, the head of the British Army (of which once, a long time ago, I was a member), General Sir Nick Carter, has provided us with a relevant case study to chew upon in our class. The BBC reports that in a speech tonight to the Royal United Services Institute, General Carter will argue that, ‘Britain’s armed forces risk falling behind Russia without more investment.’ According to the BBC, General Carter ‘will say the Army’s ability to respond to threats “will be eroded if we don’t keep up with our adversaries” … He will add that Russia is building an increasingly aggressive expeditionary force, which already boasts capabilities the British Army would struggle to match.’

And this is where Russia comes in useful. By exaggerating the Russian threat, the British army can make a claim to an increased share of the the country’s resources. The connection between the two – exaggerating threats and claiming resources – is quite explicit in this case.

We see here how the military industrial complex works. The army makes wild claims to justify its budget; the defence minister and his bureaucracy support the claims; institutions such as RUSI spread the word further among those who influence public opinion; and the press does its bit by giving space to the exaggerations. This isn’t a conspiracy – no doubt all these people believe in what they are doing. Long exposure to a given set of institutions tends to make people identify the national interest with those institutions’ interests. But the two aren’t the same. The British nation – that is to say its people – don’t benefit from conflictual relations with Russia; nor do they benefit from spending extra money on defence rather than on more productive activities (or alternative getting their money back in the form of tax cuts).

Irrussianality

The national interest?

Paul Robinson | Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa

also

Missed opportunity.

In the 1990s, American President George Bush Snr seriously considered the option of including Russia in the Strategic Defense Initiative (SOI) program, also known as 'Star Wars', as its partner. This is reported with reference to the newly declassified documents of the British government....

Declassified: How 1990s Russia almost became part of a US alliance
Vesti - translated by Inessa Sinchougova

Paul Grenier — Russia, America, and the Courage to Converse

Despite its claims to “open-ness,” liberalism in its late modern Western form becomes self-contained to the point of closure. Allied with such power constructs as the “liberal world order,” globalization (a word that came into common usage only after the fall of the Soviet Union) tends towards the homogenization of political space and the radical constriction of pluralism.

Notice a trend toward closure? It's affected conventional economics in addition to politics. Plurism, the hallmark of liberalism, is over — dead and buried.

The American Conservative
Russia, America, and the Courage to Converse

Paul Grenier, founder of the Simone Weil Center for Political Philosophy

Jay Tharappel — Iran: internal grievances, external agendas

US and Israel back another terrorist group (in addition to Al Qaeda and ISIS) when it is useful.

Fort Russ
Iran: internal grievances, external agendas

Jay Tharappel | Guest Contributor

See also

Wikipedia

People's Mujahedin of Iran (Mojahedin-e Khalq, acronyms MEK, MKO)

See also 

The Guardian (23 Sep 2012)
Five lessons from the de-listing of MEK as a terrorist group

Glenn Greenwald

What could go wrong with getting in bed a bit with the devil as long you don't worship him? Using AQ and ISIS has worked out so well.

Whitney Webb — Birth Of An Insurgency: The US-Israeli “Secret Deal” To Manipulate Protests In Iran

With the Trump and Netanyahu administrations now working in lockstep, U.S.-Israeli hostility towards Iran has now ripened into a plan to repeat what befell Syria over six years ago – the hijacking of minor protests and their transformation into the cover for a foreign-funded insurgency intent on toppling Iran’s elected government.

Mint Press
Birth Of An Insurgency: The US-Israeli “Secret Deal” To Manipulate Protests In Iran
Whitney Webb

See also

Short and important. Flores is a good analyst. He views this as interim move and strategic iteration rather than the tactical play as a lead-up to the endgame of regime change.

Fort Russ
ANALYSIS: The US's goal in Iran this week is EU sanctions, not regime-change

Joachim Flores, Editor-in-Chief of Fort Russ News

Official identification in China and the US

Different approaches to official ID.

RT
Social network profile to become official ID in China

Travel & Leisure
Driver Licenses From Nine States Won’t Be Valid IDs for Domestic Flights in 2018

Pepe Escobar — The New Great Game moves from Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific

In the context of the New Great Game in Eurasia, the New Silk Roads, known as the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), integrates all of China’s instruments of national power – political, economic, diplomatic, financial, intellectual and cultural – to shape the 21stcentury geopolitical/geoeconomic order. BRI is the organizing concept of China’s foreign policy for the foreseeable future; the heart of what was conceptualized, even before President Xi Jinping, as China’s “peaceful rise.”

The Trump administration’s reaction to the breath and scope of BRI has been somewhat minimalistic. For the moment, it amounts to a terminological switch from what was previously known as Asia-Pacific to “Indo-Pacific.” The Obama administration, up to the former president’s last visit to Asia in September 2016, always referred to Asia-Pacific.

Indo-Pacific includes South Asia and the Indian Ocean. So, from an American point of view, that does imply elevating India to the status of a rising global superpower able to “contain” China....

Asia Times
The New Great Game moves from Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific
Pepe Escobar

Alexander Mercouris — Does the United States have a future? A new book by Gilbert Doctorow (book review)

Good read. The review is mostly about Russia, despite the title.

The Duran

Does the United States have a future? A new book by Gilbert Doctorow (book review)
Alexander Mercouris

Sputnik International — ‘Political Intervention’: Budapest Furious at US Initiative to Fund Rural Media

On Wednesday, the Hungarian Foreign Ministry summoned US envoy David Kostelancik to formally complain about Washington’s new $700,000 initiative to fund rural media outlets in the country. The program provides technical and financial assistance to these media outlets, granting them increased exposure as well as small grants.…

Of course, there is some irony in the United States — a country that itself has experienced a precipitous drop in press freedom, from 20th in 2010 to 43rd in 2017 according to PFI — demanding greater press freedom in its NATO ally Hungary.

Sputnik International
‘Political Intervention’: Budapest Furious at US Initiative to Fund Rural Media

Arms race ratchets up

Sputnik International
Analysts Explain How China May Respond to US Push to Militarize Asia-Pacific

Deutsche Welle
NATO to beef up in face of 'assertive' Russia

The Cipher Brief
Securing Orbit: Countdown to a Space Corps?

Russia Feed
Crimea has a shipyard ready to build a new fleet of Russian aircraft carriers

USNI
UPDATED: 7 U.S. Aircraft Carriers Are Now Simultaneously Underway
Sam LaGrone

Cullen Roche — The Balance of Payments in the USA

Why the US works with respect to internal trade among states while the EZ doesn't.

Pragmatic Capitalism
The Balance of Payments in the USA

Cullen Roche

Alexander Mercouris — ‘Respect China’s political system’: China warns Trump on eve of his Asia visit

On the eve of Donald Trump’s first trip to Asia as US President the government owned Chinese English language newspaper Global Times – which is often used by the Chinese government to express views the Chinese government does not wish to state officially – has published an editorial warning Trump to respect China and its political system and to discard ‘Cold War thinking’.…

However the comments by President Trump which have probably incensed the Chinese leadership most were certain comments he made over the course of his recent speech to the United Nations General Assembly, in which he criticised socialism in the most trenchant terms….

The idea that China has de facto abandoned socialism and has embraced capitalism and that the Chinese economy operates on purely capitalist lines is one which is very popular in the West. I myself shared it. Having now seen how the Chinese economy actually works from inside China I now however think this view is profoundly wrong.

More to the point the Chinese Communist Party could not fail to be incensed by comments by the US President which refer to socialism – the Communist Party’s ideology – as a “discredited ideology” which has brought “anguish and devastation and failure” wherever it has been adopted”.

Following a Party Congress in which the Chinese Communist Party has gone out of its way to reaffirm its commitment to socialism – this was.a central theme of President Xi Jinping’s speech to the Congress – the Chinese via Global Times are now making clear on the eve of Trump’s Asia trip – which is expected to include a stop-over in China – that they will not tolerate lectures on the nature of the political system from anyone, be that Donald Trump or anyone else....

The Duran
‘Respect China’s political system’: China warns Trump on eve of his Asia visit

Alexander Mercouris