Showing posts with label Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. Show all posts

Tuesday, October 15, 2019

A Nobel for the Randomistas — Peter Dorman

I don’t think anyone was surprised by this year’s “Nobel” prize in economics, which went to three American-based specialists in the design of on-the-ground experiments in low income countries, Abhijit Banerjee, Esther Duflo and Michael Kremer. I think the award has merit, but it is important to keep in mind the severe limitations of the work being honored....
On balance, I think it’s fine that this prize honors experimentalism, but we shouldn’t lose sight of the larger picture. Using experimental methods to incorporate more learning in program administration should be standard practice; perhaps some day it will be. But the big problems in poverty and oppression are too complex and encompassing to be reduced to experimental bits, and there is no substitute for theoretical analysis and a willingness to take chances with large-scale collective.

Micro approach versus macro. Conclusions cannot be extended beyond the scope and scale of the model, no matter how well-designed the experiment may be. Development economics assumes a large scale context. According to Peter Dorman, the work for which the prize was awarded does not deal with  the hard problem of development economics.

We want to avoid the damned if you do and damned if you don't bias, which Peter Dorman seeks to do. The experimental method lies at the basis of scientific method and should be used where it fits. But it doesn't fit everywhere and a shoehorns and girdles should not be used to make it fit either.

The other issue is with randomization, which Lars Syll has pursued in depth at his blog over the years. It's not a straightforward in social science as it is in natural science owing to the subject matter.

Angry Bear
A Nobel for the Randomistas
Peter Dorman | Professor of Political Economy, The Evergreen State College

See also

Oxfam Blogs — From Poverty to Power
The Randomistas just won the Nobel Economics prize. Here’s why RCTs aren’t a magic bullet.
Duncan Green, strategic adviser for Oxfam GB

Monday, October 14, 2019

The Nobel Prize in Economic Science Goes to Banerjee, Duflo, and Kremer — Alex Tabarrok


Summary of their work.

Marginal Revolution
The Nobel Prize in Economic Science Goes to Banerjee, Duflo, and Kremer
Alex Tabarrok | Bartley J. Madden Chair in Economics at the Mercatus Center and Professor of Economics at George Mason University, and a research fellow with the Mercatus Center

Tuesday, September 10, 2019

Nat Dyer — How Fifty Years Of The ‘Nobel Prize’ In Economics Redrew Our Map Of Society

Fifty years ago this year, the King of Sweden presented with royal pomp the first ever Nobel medals in economics. The prize has been dogged by controversy ever since. Alfred Nobel the founder of the awards never wanted an economics prize, hisde scendants want it scrapped and the economist F.A. Hayek said it was dangerous.

That’s not the half. Serious thinkers argue that the prize in ‘economic sciences’, as it’s called, has given economic ideas which favour the rich and powerful the gloss of scientific truth. The prize, still paid for every year by Sweden’s Central Bank, has helped weaken democratic control of money, they argue, and helped one school of economic thought – known as neoclassical – dominate the rest. It has contributed to a crisis of conformity in economics and trouble well beyond the ivory tower....
I don't know how influential the Nobel in economics, since determining the influence of causal factor in such cases by putting numbers on it is difficult to impossible. However, the Nobel in economics was instituted subsequently by Riksbank rather than according to the wishes of Alfred Nobel, so attaching Nobel's name to it is disingenuous when it is actually the called  the "Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel." But "Nobel Prize in Economics" has stuck since it widely reverberates in the media echo chamber.

 And there have been some surprises, like Elinor Ostrum, who was an institutionalist rather than a neoclassical that contested the privatization argument of Garrett Hardin's Tragedy of the Commons based on neoclassical assumptions about markets.

But overall, the Nobel has tended to institutionalize the neoclassical approach to economics, including political economy. This has tended to favor the market state over the welfare state on the basis of neoclassical assumptions.

Promoting Economic Pluralism
How Fifty Years Of The ‘Nobel Prize’ In Economics Redrew Our Map Of Society
Nat Dyer

Tuesday, October 10, 2017

David Ruccio — Nobel economics: the behaviorism of economic decisions and its secret

Paraphrasing that nineteenth-century critic of political economy, we might say that “economic decision-making appears, at first sight, a very trivial thing, and easily understood. Its analysis shows that it is, in reality, a very queer thing, abounding in metaphysical subtleties and theological niceties.” We might credit Thaler and other behavioral economists, then, for having taken a first step in challenging the traditional neoclassical account of rational decision-making. But they stop far short of examining the perverse incentives that are built into the current economic system or the alternative rationalities that would serve as the basis for a different way of organizing economic and social life. And, in terms of economic theory, they appear not to be able to imagine another way of thinking about the economy, as a process without an individual subject.
David Ruccio points to the assumption of methodological individualism as the problem. I agree it is central.

However, I would go further and say that economics cannot limit itself to economic choice and create models that can possibly be representational of reality since home economicus is a gross oversimplification. 

It is difficult to conceive of any choices with which most people are presented that are exclusivity economic, and those are trivial. "Chocolate or vanilla, or some other of our 28 flavors?"

Human life is social. Homo socialis is the norm and homo economicus is an idealized abstraction. Making homo economicus the norm in a world that assumes methodological individualism is tantamount to assuming "there is no such thing as society" (Margaret Thatcher after reading Hayek).

Humans are embedded in environments — social, political, economics and ecological. Human individuals exist in networks of relationships, and these relationships are reflected in different ways in different societies base on culture and institutional arrangements, as well as historical and geographical conditions. Assuming a "standard individual" as methodological individualism does, e.g., as a homogenous representative agent unaffected by network connections, is so far removed from the reality of human action and interaction that it is not only useless but also dangerous if applied outside a model by presuming it to be realistic.

Moreover, humans don't make choices based on "reason" alone. They make choices based on affect as well, and often affect trumps reason. Feelings may be base or noble. For example, it is always reasonable to go beyond reason to love.

Even within the use of reason, different degrees of rigor are applied in different situations based on ability, on hand, and transaction cost, on the other. Most people don't have the ability that economists regularly assume they have, nor do they have access to the information if they do. In addition, rigorous analysis also takes transaction cost into consideration. Spending more time on decision making then is at stake in the decision is irrational. Smart people use heuristics instead.

All such considerations are excluded from economic analysis, which OK at the theoretical level. Theoreticians can chose freely to explore what and where they wish.

But excluding such considerations from applied economics, especially political economy, is disastrous for individuals and societies alike, as will as the entire world.

Economics applied to policy formulation needs to be realistic and and for models to be tested  their claims need to be tested using the tools of scientific method. Otherwise, GIGO, where people's lives are at stake. Policy also influences the future of the societies affected by it, as well as the entire world in the case of policy choices of dominant nations.

As matter of fact, policy makers seldom consider only economic advise since they are politicians that must balance a range of interests. However, economic input is a powerful influencer. Moreover, many politicians likely operate on confirmation bias and are prone to select in advise that agrees with their ideology and select out that which does not. 

As result of political competition that is based on ideological differences as well as competing interests, it essential that debate be well-informed so that persuasion is minimized and arguments are based on logic and evidence instead of assumptions that may not be realistic but go unrecognized.

Occasional Links & Commentary
Nobel economics: the behaviorism of economic decisions and its secret
David F. Ruccio | Professor of Economics, University of Notre Dame

See also

Lars is not criticizing the selection of Thaler, but rather, pointing out that his selection contradicts their own statements about rationality.

Lars P. Syll’s Blog
Nobel Committee making a colossal fool of itself
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Monday, October 9, 2017

Lars P. Syll — Richard Thaler gets the 2017 ‘Nobel prize’


Explanation of why expected utility theory is "an ex-hyoptheis." 

Actually, there is a lot more wrong with it such hypotheses used as assumptions in the construction of homo economicus, and the exportation of homo economicus from theory to practical use.

Homo economicus is a theoretical construct used to simplify the complexities of human behavior for use in an economic model. But human behavior is not limited to economics other than in quite specialized cases, where it is reasonable to exclude the range of motivation that generally influences the range of behavior.

This has been debated literally for millennia in ethics, for example, and studied in psychology, anthropology, and sociology.  The reality is homo socialis rather than homo economics, chiefly motivated by "utility" or "preferences" as material satisfaction, or homo politicus, chiefly motivated by power and dominance, as well as prestige and fame. 

Nor are humans motivated only by fame, fortune, power and pleasure. In fact, fame, fortune, power and pleasure have been regarded by the wise as vanity and glamor, veiling the true source of happiness as abiding fulfillment, which lies in purification of the heart. The primary pursuit of fame, fortune, power and pleasure harden the heart and put what all human seek most beyond reach. This is the teaching of the wise.

There is nothing wrong with using simple models like Robinson Crusoe models as long as the limitations are explained. But I recall that when taking Econ 101 the prof just put the model out there without explaining modeling and its use. We were all looking at each other, like WTF?

Lars P. Syll’s Blog
Richard Thaler gets the 2017 ‘Nobel prize’
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Wednesday, April 12, 2017

Matias Vernengo — Economic Regularities and "Laws" and the Riksbank Prize too

I've been reading The Nobel Factor: The Prize in Economics, Social Democracy, and the Market Turn by Avner Offer, Gabriel Söderberg, an interesting critique of the use of the Nobel Prize to undermine the Welfare State, essentially by conservative groups in Sweden, that were influential within the Central Bank (Riksbank), that disliked the Social Democratic policies in place in the 1960s.…
My comment on section of the post on laws. Economists need lose the term "law." There are no "laws of economics," or any other social science, that are comparable the laws of nature discovered in the natural science, owing to the differences in subject matter. There are no "laws of history," and economics is historical — regardless of how much formalists would like to believe otherwise.

There may be regularities that observable in economics, but they do not rise to the level of universality that is characteristic of laws of nature. Economists should stop implying they they do. It is dishonest, and it is bringing considerable criticism down on the profession for apparent failures.

These failures appear because of the way economist approach their discipline. They set narrow scope conditions that are instead advertised as law-based. Then they they have to resort to "exogenous factors" when things go wrong. This is not doing science. It is either confused, or else ideological persuasion based on rhetoric rather than reasoning and evidence.

My advice is to declare your scope conditions and then don't give the impression that you are able to provide answers for anything beyond the scope of the modeling assumptions. Of course, this limits what economists can claim because restrictive assumptions narrow the scope of the model.

Those who like to pontificate about "laws" don't like that. Now they are on the receiving end of not only criticism but also derision because of the exaggerated expectations about prediction and certainty they cultured in their audience that imploded in the GFC, for instance, and their prescription afterward have shown that they don't know how to fix thing they were involved in breaking.

So when you hear "economic laws," think BS.
 
Naked Keynesianism
Economic Regularities and "Laws" and the Riksbank Prize too
Matias Vernengo | Associate Professor of Economics, Bucknell University

Thursday, October 13, 2016

Lars P. Syll — Sherlock Holmes of the year — ‘Nobel prize’ winner Bengt Holmström


There is no mystery to the "magic" of supply and demand. It is based on scarcity and rationing by price. Of course, those who make the greatest contribution, or who have the greatest endowments, or who can extract the most rent are going to be rewarded with the best selection, and those that cannot command an income for whatever reason and have no endowment will be left with no share. Duh.

The issue in a liberal society is to reconcile social, political and economic liberalism in a way that balances personal freedom, social fairness and the common good. Economic liberalism based on "the magic of supply and demand" cannot do this. 

A self-organizing system based on economic liberalism will result in highly asymmetrical distributional effects based on scarcity and rationing by price in an environment affected by institutional arrangements that result in privilege based on social status and networking, political power, and financial wealth stemming from unearned endowments and rents.

This is not even a workable choice, since it leads to social and political dysfunction that eventually results in economic dysfunction as well, and economic disfunction exacerbates social and political dysfunction.

Lars P. Syll’s Blog
Sherlock Holmes of the year — ‘Nobel prize’ winner Bengt Holmström
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Tuesday, October 11, 2016

David F. Ruccio — Nobel economics—or why does capital hire labor?


David Ruccio explains the "Nobel" in economics ( really the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel) and this years winners. Yes, it is all about promoting neoclassical economics as a theory of capitalism.

Occasional Links & Commentary
Nobel economics—or why does capital hire labor?
David F. Ruccio | Professor of Economics, University of Notre Dame

Also

No, the “free market” doesn’t fight poverty

Sunday, January 31, 2016

David Sloan Wilson — The Search for a Better Economics. Part II of My Journey


David Sloan Wilson meets Elinor Ostrom. Elinor Ostrom has the unique distinction of being awarded the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel although she was not an economist.
The reaction to Elinor Ostrom as the recipient of the 2009 Nobel Prize in economics (along with Oliver Williamson, who also studies how decisions are made outside markets) spoke volumes about the field of economics.… 
Evonomics
The Search for a Better Economics. Part II of My Journey
David Sloan Wilson | SUNY Distinguished Professor of Biology and Anthropology at Binghamton University and Arne Næss Chair in Global Justice and the Environment at the University of Oslo

Sunday, November 8, 2015

Alex Tabarrok — Satoshi Nakamoto Nominated for Nobel Prize

Bhagwan Chowdhry, a professor of finance at UCLA, has nominated Satoshi Nakamoto, the creator of Bitcoin, for a Nobel prize in economics. It’s an excellent choice. Nakamoto made a fundamental breakthrough that combined cryptography and a distributed database to create the first decentralized cryptocurrency.…
Marginal Revolution
Satoshi Nakamoto Nominated for Nobel Prize
Alex Tabarrok | Bartley J. Madden Chair in Economics at the Mercatus Center and Professor of Economics at George Mason University

Monday, October 12, 2015

Joris Luyendijk — Don’t let the Nobel prize fool you. Economics is not a science

Business as usual. That will be the implicit message when the Sveriges Riksbank announces this year’s winner of the “Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel”, to give it its full title. Seven years ago this autumn, practically the entire mainstream economics profession was caught off guard by the global financial crash and the “worst panic since the 1930s” that followed. And yet on Monday the glorification of economics as a scientific field on a par with physics, chemistry and medicine will continue.

The problem is not so much that there is a Nobel prize in economics, but that there are no equivalent prizes in psychology, sociology, anthropology. Economics, this seems to say, is not a social science but an exact one, like physics or chemistry – a distinction that not only encourages hubris among economists but also changes the way we think about the economy.

A Nobel prize in economics implies that the human world operates much like the physical world: that it can be described and understood in neutral terms, and that it lends itself to modelling, like chemical reactions or the movement of the stars. It creates the impression that economists are not in the business of constructing inherently imperfect theories, but of discovering timeless truths.…

The Guardian — Comment is free
Don’t let the Nobel prize fool you. Economics is not a science
Joris Luyendijk

Sunday, October 11, 2015

Lars P. Syll — The Nobel prize in economics is a disgrace. Dump it!

Georgescu-Roegen and ecological economics have turned against the neoclassical theory’s obsession with purely monetary factors. The monetary reductionism easily makes you ignore other factors having a bearing on human interaction with the environment.
I wonder if this isn’t the crux of the matter. To assert such a thing really is to swear in the neoclassical establishment church and nullifies any chances of getting the prestigious prize.
Twenty years ago, after a radio debate with one of the members of the prize committee, I asked why Georgescu-Roegen hadn’t got the prize. The answer was – mirabile dictu – that he “never founded a school.” I was surprised, to say the least, and wondered if he possibly had heard of the environmental movement. Well, he had — but it was “the wrong kind of school”! Can it be stated much clearer than this what it’s all about? If you haven’t worked within the mainstream neoclassical paradigm — then you are more or less excluded a priori from being eligible for the The Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel!
Lars P. Syll’s Blog
The Nobel prize in economics is a disgrace. Dump it!
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

See also

Serious smackdown.

Real-World Economics Review Blog
Key member of Swedish Academy of Sciences calls for immediate suspension of the “Nobel Prize for Economics”
Edward Fulbrook