Showing posts with label behavioral economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label behavioral economics. Show all posts

Sunday, July 14, 2019

Gigerenzer: “The Bias Bias in Behavioral Economics,” including discussion of political implications — Andrew Gelman


Gerd Gigerenzer takes aim at Daniel Kahneman, Richard Thaler and Cass Sunstein for being uncritical and going too far. While not endorsing rational choice theory, he stresses that the truth lies between the extremes of rationality and irrationality and claims behavioral economics tends to over emphasize irrationality consequent on cognitive-effective bias. It's neither reason or all bias, either all or mostly, but a combination of rationality and irrationality.

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
Gigerenzer: “The Bias Bias in Behavioral Economics,” including discussion of political implications
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

See also by Andrew Gelman

The butterfly effect: It’s not what you think it is.

The piranha problem in social psychology / behavioral economics: The “take a pill” model of science eats itself

Sunday, May 6, 2018

Alexander Beunder — Behavioral Economics: Still Too Devoted To Homo Economicus?


I think Alexander Beunder attacks the wrong target — rationality. The foundational assumption of homo economics is methodological individualism based on a hidden assumption of ontological individualism, which is characteristic of many forms of liberalism as a philosophical position. The major opposing view is that of Aristotle, that humans are social animals. Thus, the key conceptual distinction is between homo economicus and homo socialis.

The basic assumption of homo socialis is that humans are embedded in social system. The unit of society is not the individual, but rather the family. Individual choice is not free of the influence of culture and institutions.

Homo economicus assumes a "standard individual," that is. a degree of homogeneity such that "rational" individuals can be presumed to similar in their economic preferences as revealed by their choices in markets. This assumption greatly limits the scope to a narrow range of human decision-making and a limited scale, that is, to the micro.

Conversely, homo socialis is influenced by many factors that are influenced by the position of the individual in the social system as whole and in the various subsystems that constitute nodes in the network of relationships.

This is not to say that assuming homo economicus is "wrong." What is illogical is extending the conclusion that result from applying the assumption beyond the limitations of those assumptions.

Homo economicus is a simplification than may lead to interesting and useful insights. However it is taken as necessary methodological approach it is likely to lead astray in wandering beyond the scope and scale of the assumptions.

Homs socialis also suggests that the macro level may not be determined by the micro, as the methodological approach of microfoundations assumes. Rather, the micro may be importantly affected by the macro and meso levels of a social system and its interrelated subsystems.

Rational choice theory is fine — as far as it goes. That may not be very far and to extend it has it has been could be leading to the presumption of knowledge instead of knowledge. And it is entirely possible for behavioral economists to accept the conventional frame while tweaking it from within.

The Minskys
Behavioral Economics: Still Too Devoted To Homo Economicus?
Alexander Beunder, independent journalist and economics tutor at the University of Amsterdam

Tuesday, November 7, 2017

Ricardo Hausman — The Moral Identity of Homo Economicus


Even Harvard waking up and smelling the coffee?

Project Syndicate
The Moral Identity of Homo Economicus
Ricardo Hausmann | Director of the Center for International Development at Harvard University and professor of economics at the Harvard Kennedy School, formerly minister of planning of Venezuela and former Chief Economist of the Inter-American Development Bank.

Wednesday, August 9, 2017

Bill Mitchell — Falling enrolments in mainstream economics programs is a desirable outcome

If you have had the misfortune to study economics formally at university then you will recall sitting through endless and tedious lectures where the instructor asserted some superior knowledge about psychology and human behaviour. If you had combined the economics study with studies in psychology and sociology, you would have soon realised that what was being taught in your economics course was total nonsense. There was an article in the Fairfax press recently (August 6, 2017) – Crisis in high school economics a threat to national wellbeing – ruing the declining enrolments in secondary school economics programs. The point is that these courses are typically more damaging than useful and the contention of the journalist that we are reducing the quality of the economic debate as a result of less people studying economics is problematic. The typical economics program is simple indoctrination into a set of neoliberal principles that allow poor policy to continue despite it delivering disastrous outcomes. There is a crying need for more economic and financial literacy, but that requires an entirely different approach to be adopted rather than jamming more kids into the existing courses and having them come out dangerously brain dead....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Falling enrolments in mainstream economics programs is a desirable outcome
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Saturday, May 20, 2017

Beryl Chang and Fabrizio Ghisellini — Behavioural economics: What we know and how it could be mainstreamed

Behavioural economics has identified phenomena that standard models could not explain. But its critics warn that it is becoming little more than a ‘pile of quirks’. This column argues that the future development of behavioural economics should focus on a streamlining process that will clarify core issues, fill conceptual gaps, and create tractable models. Behavioural models will only become a coherent alternative to homo economicus if this process occurs.
Vox.eu
Behavioural economics: What we know and how it could be mainstreamed
Beryl Chang and Fabrizio Ghisellini

Thursday, September 8, 2016

Matias Vernengo — Phishing for phools

I've been trying to read this. Not a huge fan of the field of behavioral economics (or here; subscription required). Don't get me wrong, yes, it provides some critiques of elements of the mainstream (marginalist) approach, regarding essentially the notion of individual rationality, as did the work of, say, Herbert Simon, in the past. People don't tend to act in a rational way, at least not in the substantive way that is prescribed by the mainstream.… 
My view, and I promised a more detailed discussion when I'm done with the book, is that this is just one more iteration of the marginalist analysis trying to be relevant by introducing imperfections, the previous one being the idea of information economics, often associated with Joseph Stiglitz and George Akerlof, who is the co-author of the book with Robert Shiller. Stiglitz referred to his information economics as "Post Walrasian and Post Marxian Economics." It was very much in the Walrasian tradition, however.… 
PS: Besides these problems the book by Akerlof and Shiller starts by quoting Adam Smith invisible hand out of context, which is really problematic, and shows that the profession should go back and learn the history of its own discipline.
Naked Keynesianism
Phishing for phools
Matias Vernengo | Associate Professor of Economics, Bucknell University

Thursday, September 1, 2016

Jon Hellevig — The Scientific Essence of Economy – Capitalism and Socialism versus a Democratic Competitive Market Economy


Must-read if you are into foundations of economic and political theory. Useful even if you are not, since Jon Hellevig debunks a lot of the myths about capitalism, neoliberalism, liberalism, socialism and communism in advancing his argument for a democratic competitive economy.

Keeper.

Awara Blog
The Scientific Essence of Economy – Capitalism and Socialism versus a Democratic Competitive Market Economy
Jon Hellevig

Thursday, August 25, 2016

Philip Kotler — Why Behavioral Economics Is Really Marketing Science

The greatest irony is that traditional economics is now facing a new competitor, namely behavioral economics. Behavioral economics attacks the crucial assumption that consumers engage in maximizing behavior. Aiming to maximize utility or profits is the key to building economic decision models. Otherwise, economists would have to work with another assumption, that consumers are basically “satisficing,” stopping short of spending time to maximize and being happy enough to achieve enough of what they want. But the mathematics aren’t there for this behavior and hence the claim of economics to be a science is also weakened.
Behavioral economists, instead of assuming that consumers and producers are maximizers, have to study how different marketing actors actually behave. This involves collecting empirical data. This will lead to recognizing many instances of non-rational or even irrational behavior. How do we explain people paying so much more for coffee at Starbucks or ice cream from Haagen Dazs? How do we explain some low income people voting for Republican candidates when the empirical evidence shows that poor people have done better during Democratic administrations than Republican administrations?
If economists now have to study and explain how consumers actually make their choices, they need to turn to marketing. For a hundred years, marketers have collected data on what, how and why consumers buy what they buy. The data is there. The only conclusion we can draw is that behavioral economics is, ironically, another word for marketing. Marketers have been the behavioral economists!
Evonomics
Why Behavioral Economics Is Really Marketing Science
Philip Kotler |  S.C. Johnson & Son Distinguished Professor of International Marketing at the Kellogg School of Management at Northwestern University

Sunday, August 21, 2016

Anna Silim — What is New Economic Thinking?

Three strands of heterodox economics that are leading the way…
Complexity, evolutionary and behavioural economics
Various schools of economic thought outside the neoclassical mainstream are often placed together under the banner heading of ‘heterodox economics’. This term is used to describe any innovative way of thinking about the economy, from those that represent complete breaks from the neoclassical approach to others seeking to undermine only some of its main ideas.
In this piece, three strands of heterodox economics are discussed in some detail: complexity, evolutionary and behavioural economics. Each offers different insights into economic analysis by seeking a more accurate representation of the economy, and in so doing opens up new possibilities for policymakers. This essay summarises their basic tenets – and discusses what they might mean for public policy.…
Useful summary. The new thinking in economics is making an effort to connect theory with reality after neoclassical economics prioritized theory over reality to the degree that economists lost contact with reality by caging themselves in formalism.

Evonomics
Amna Silim 

Thursday, June 23, 2016

Herbert Gintis — How to Synthesize New Economics with Traditional Economics

There have been two major contributions to economic theory in my lifetime. One is behavioral economics. The other is evolutionary economics. The revolutions induced by these new approaches are by no means complete. Their ramifications are still being worked out in the professional economics journals.
Behavioral economics abandons the traditional notion that rational choice alone can explain human behavior in favor of patterns of choice that are inferred from laboratory and field studies of actual human subjects. Evolutionary economics views the economy as a dynamical evolving system that can be modeled using the combined tools of economic and biological theory. Evolutionary economics treats individuals as the product of their biological and social history, and so fits in well with behavioral economics.
Many behavioral and evolutionary economists consider themselves allies in a battle against the principles of traditional economic theory, and many supporters of traditional economic theory share this mind set—except that they are on the other side of the conflict. This oppositional mind-set is profoundly incorrect and leads to serious errors both in developing economic theory and presenting it to the general public.

The most creative behavioral and evolutionary economists remain inspired by the successes of, and consider their work as extensions of traditional economic theory. The most creative supporters of traditional economic theory, in turn, embrace behavioral and evolutionary perspectives and build on its insights.
In this article I will suggest the proper way to treat the new economic theory in relation to the old. I encourage readers to offer significant critiques of or additions to my comments.…
Useful summary.

Examines market failures, which is really the way to approach economics rather than to assume general equilibrium precludes market failures or make then irrelevant "in the long run." Market failures sufficiently large and persistent have not only economic but also social and political consequences. Therefore, understanding and reducing market failure is of the highest priority.

Evonomics
How to Synthesize New Economics with Traditional Economics
Herbert Gintis

Sunday, December 6, 2015

Adam M. Grant — Why Behavioral Economics is Cool, and I’m Not


Fun read. Did you realize "behavioral economists" are actually rebranded professional psychologists rather than academically trained economists?

Evonomics
Why Behavioral Economics is Cool, and I’m Not
Adam M. Grant is a professor of management at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School

Sunday, September 6, 2015

Noah Smith — "The Case For Mindless Economics", 10 years on


This is a mindless argument. There is no rule about choosing assumption for modeling other than the usefulness of the model. A model might a heuristic or a thought experiment not designed or represented as realistic. However, models that are offered as being realistic face the test of evidence.

The best explanation is the one that satisfies the traditional four criteria — consistency, correspondence, simplicity, and usefulness — more fully than others.

Often there is not a best explanation in that meets all criteria, but any model that claims to be representational of reality must pass the correspondence test in terms of evidence in terms of what speaks for it and what speaks against it.

At the same time, it is possible that the currently best explanation, even though it is not terribly representation of reality, might be the best explanation available given the criteria, that it, it is consistent and relatively simple. It may be that it's just not very useful to rely on predictively.

Anyway, Noah sets forth the issues.

However, if a highly predictable model were ever generated in finance, that would be the end of a lot of financial transaction unless fools were taking the other side of the trade.

Noahpinion
"The Case For Mindless Economics", 10 years on
Noah Smith | Assistant Professor of Finance, Stony Brook University

Monday, June 29, 2015

Roger Farmer — The Economics of George Orwell


Without agreeing with Coyle and Farmer about keeping some version of an economics based on homo economicus, that is, methodological individualism, rationality and utility maximizing, rather than jumping into an unclear assumption of homo socialis, I agree that there is a danger of authoritarianism creeping in when individualism as foundational is abandoned. 

But as we have seen demonstrated abundantly, methodological individualism based on free choice and freedom from restraint can also be used to rationalize institutionalization of asymmetric power, which is authoritarianism under the guise of liberalism.

Individualism as foundational is unrealistic because humans are social, hence heavily influenced by social relations, structure and interdependence, including culture and institutional arrangements. 

But homo socialis is complex and needs to be approached carefully in order to avoid cognitive-affective bias, oversimplification, generalizing, etc. in arriving at an appropriate theory of human being to ground a sociological economics and political economy that is sufficiently realistic to yield more satisfactory results than the now dominant approach. 

For example, by focusing on too limited a sample, it is all to possible to fashion a theory based on Western civilization and culture that excludes the bulk of humanity in an age of emerging nations and increasing emergence in the complex adaptive system that constitutes the global village. 

I don't think that behavioral economics as it presently exists is necessarily the place to begin, and there are many reasons to suspect it is limited in this regard since it is coming from the same place. Economics needs to be set in a larger context.

Roger Farmer's Economic Window

Thursday, April 30, 2015

Justin Fox — From “Economic Man” to Behavioral Economics


Everything you always wanted to know about the development of decision theory.

Harvard Business Review
From “Economic Man” to Behavioral Economics
Justin Fox | former editorial director of Harvard Business Review and now a columnist for Bloomberg View
ht Mark Thoma at Economist's View

Tuesday, January 6, 2015

Nick Bunker — Reference points, loss aversion, and redistribution

What’s so interesting about Charité, Fisman, and Kuziemko’s paper is that it indicates that the general public’s preferences for redistribution might be different from what is assumed in the classic optimal taxation research. Their research isn’t the first to point this out, but it provides more proof that the average person might not be a strict utilitarian. This in turn means that the classical economic model that undermines a fair bit of the conversation about the proper level of progressive taxation might be based on some flawed assumptions. The importance of that fact shouldn’t be lost on economists and policymakers.
Washington Center for Equitable Growth 
Reference points, loss aversion, and redistribution
Nick Bunker

Thursday, January 1, 2015

Brad DeLong — Robert Lucas Rejects the “Microfoundational” Project


Humans are not atoms. But Robert Lucas saying it is hugely important for the impact.
We’re not going to build up useful economics… starting from individuals…
WCEG — The Equitablog
Robert Lucas Rejects the “Microfoundational” Project
Brad DeLong