Lars Syll — Einstein’s ‘Not More So’ criterion and macroeconomic modelling (wonkish)

Don't be scared off by the wonkish label. It's basic logic and it's important.

Einstein’s ‘Not More So’ criterion and macroeconomic modelling (wonkish)
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Lars Syll — Macroeconomic quackery (from Robert Lucas)

In a recent interview Robert Lucas says he now believes that “the evidence on postwar recessions … overwhelmingly supports the dominant importance of real shocks.”

So, according to Lucas, changes in tastes and technologies should be able to explain the main fluctuations in e.g. unemployment that we have seen during the last six or seven decades.

Lars P. Syll's blog
Macroeconomic quackery
Lars P. Syll | Professor of Economics, Malmo University

Lars Syll — How do we attach probabilities to the world?

There are no such things as free-standing probabilities – simply because probabilities are strictly seen only defined relative to chance set-ups – probabilistic nomological machines like flipping coins or roulette-wheels. And even these machines can be tricky to handle. Although prob(fair coin lands heads|I toss it) = prob(fair coin lands head & I toss it)|prob(fair coin lands heads) may be well-defined, it’s not certain we can use it, since we cannot define the probability that I will toss the coin given the fact that I am not a nomological machine producing coin tosses.
No nomological machine – no probability.

Lars P. Syll's Blog
How do we attach probabilities to the world?
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University

Similar to transmission mechanism in causal argument. No mechanism and the argument is just handwaving.