Jared McKinney — Why America—and Its Political Leaders—Should Think Twice about Poking China

Good response to a hawkish approach to China in the South China Sea. While the author is responding to an article in The National Interest, it is an argument that is commonly made that is based on dodgy assumptions and poor logic.

Someone needs to write a companion piece at The National Interest about similar assumptions about Russia that are equally dubious.

The National Interest
Why America—and Its Political Leaders—Should Think Twice about Poking China

Jared McKinney, nonresident fellow at the Pangoal Institution (Beijing) and a PhD Student at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Nanyang Technological University (Singapore)

Reuters — Trump secretary of state nominee: China should be denied access to South China Sea islands

Collison course. Bets on who shoots first?

But Tillerson also stressed the "deeply intertwined" nature of the world's two biggest economies.

"We should not let disagreements over other issues exclude areas for productive partnership," he said.

Uh huh. This should be fun to watch.

Reuters
Trump secretary of state nominee: China should be denied access to South China Sea islands

David Brunnstrom and Matt Spetalnick

See also

On being proactive.

And because of its wealth and geographic security, [the US] can afford to commit serious foreign-policy blunders and still recover.

Until the nukes arrive.

The National Interest
Resisting America's Unstoppable Urge to 'Do Something' Can the next secretary of state resist the urge?
Aaron David Miller, vice president and distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, and Richard Sokolsky, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a former member of the secretary of state’s policy planning staff

Josh Rogin — The Pentagon's Lonely War Against Russia and China

Rift between the state apparatus and the deep state apparatus.

Obama seems to be trying to stave of a new Cold War with Russia and China, whereas the deep state is on board with it.

Rogin observes that a stalemate over this is likely until after the next election but the budget deal does increase military spending and the president isn't reigning in confrontational military operations on the eastern and western fronts, or the southern front for that matter.

Bloomberg View
The Pentagon's Lonely War Against Russia and China
Josh Rogin

The Saker — The Russia-U.S. Conventional Military Balance

An analyst puts things in perspective.

Pretty much the only concern is either an accident, or someone doing something very stupid.

The Vineyard of the Saker
The Russia-U.S. Conventional Military Balance
The Saker