Showing posts with label national accounting. Show all posts
Showing posts with label national accounting. Show all posts

Wednesday, April 3, 2019

Ramanan — Distributional Financial Accounts Of The United States

"The Distributional Financial Accounts (DFAs) provide a quarterly measure of the distribution of U.S. household wealth since 1989, based on a comprehensive integration of disaggregated household-level wealth data with official aggregate wealth measures.…"
More data.

The Case for Concerted Action
Distributional Financial Accounts Of The United States
V. Ramanan

Monday, January 28, 2019

Piketty, Saez & Zucman — Simplified Distributional National Accounts

Abstract:
This paper develops a simplified methodology that starts from the fiscal income top income share series and makes very basic assumptions on how each income component from national income that is not included in fiscal income is distributed. This simplified methodology has two main goals.

First and most important, it can be used to create distributional national income statistics in countries where fiscal income inequality statistics are available but where there is limited information to impute other income at the individual level. Alvaredo et al. (2016) distributional national accounts guidelines proposed a simplified methodology for countries with less data (Section 7). The methodology proposed here can be seen as an even simpler method that can be applied to countries for which fiscal income top income share statistics exist1 and for which national accounts and fiscal income aggregates are sufficiently detailed.

Second, this simplified methodology can also be used to assess the plausibility of the Piketty, Saez, and Zucman (2018) assumptions. In particular, we will show that the simplified methodology can be used to show that the alternative assumptions proposed by Auten and Splinter (2018) imply a drastic equalization of income components not in fiscal income which does not seem realistic.
WCEG
Simplified Distributional National Accounts
Thomas Piketty, Paris School of Economics;
Emmanuel Saez, University of California, Berkeley; Gabriel Zucman, University of California, Berkeley

Thursday, September 28, 2017

FRED Blog — How Y=C+I+G has evolved : 70 years of quarterly national account data

FRED now has 70 years of quarterly national accounts data for the United States, which is an opportunity to look back at how the U.S. economy may have changed since 1947. In the graph above, we look at the three main expenditure components of real gross national product: real consumption, real investment, and real government expenses. They’re normalized to 100 for the first quarter of 1947, to make them more comparable....
FRED Blog
How Y=C+I+G has evolved : 70 years of quarterly national account data

Thursday, March 30, 2017

Austin Clemens — The once and future measurement of economic inequality in the United States

A slew of research into economic inequality replete with serious looking graphs may give the impression that measuring inequality in the United States is a solved problem. This is misleading. Inequality is still measured incompletely because existing U.S. government statistics do not attempt to match their estimates to the National Income and Product Accounts. NIPA is the source of the most reported and well-understood economic statistics such as the nation’s Gross Domestic Product and quarterly GDP growth figures.
Because existing estimates of economic inequality are not pegged to NIPA, they don’t account for all sources of income. They may exclude, for example, fringe benefits provided by employers such as employer-provided health insurance and retirement benefits, government transfers such as supplemental nutrition assistance or the child tax credit, government services such as public education, and tax expenditures such as the home mortgage tax deduction and tax breaks for employer-provided insurance. These exclusions, big and small, make many existing estimates of inequality fundamentally incomparable to our most well-established measures of economic growth....
Important analysis from the POV of stock-flow consistency follows. Efforts are underway to improve measurement to bring estimates of income in line with national income accounting in order to remove the inconsistencies arrive at a better understanding of income and wealth distribution in the US.
The ability to look at the geographic distribution of inequality and at slices of income within different income groups teases the possibilities of a more robust project to disaggregate the National Income and Product Accounts statistics that are currently the most referenced statistics of economic progress in the nation. Devoting federal resources to the project could allow us to track inequality not only by income bands, but also by age, geographic location, gender, ethnicity, and type of income.
WCEG — The Equitablog
The once and future measurement of economic inequality in the United States
Austin Clemens

Monday, March 27, 2017

Dean Baker — National Income Accounting for Robert Samuelson and Friends


Dean Baker does sectoral balance analysis but obliquely without mentioning it specifically.

Beat the Press
National Income Accounting for Robert Samuelson and Friends
Dean Baker | Co-director of the Center for Economic and Policy Research in Washington, D.C

Sunday, September 27, 2015

Merijn Knibbe — The return of ‘land’ in macro economic discourse. Wonkish

Summary. One of the most influential critics of the ideas of Piketty is Matthew Rognlie – who, to be able to write down his criticisms and following the national accounts, reintroduced the idea of ‘land’, or unproduced inputs like land and natural resources including land underlying buildings, in a neoclassical world. Herewith he undid the work of John Bates Clark, who purged ‘land’ from the concept of capital of classical economics, therewith enabling the rise of neoclassical economics. But this is not the only example of the return of land into economic discourse – land has made quite a return.…
Real-World Economics Review Blog
The return of ‘land’ in macro economic discourse. Wonkish
Merijn Knibbe

Friday, September 6, 2013

Data, Indexes and GIGO

Here is comment I put up at Asymptosis that stands alone and is worth consideration here.

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Inflation can't be measured precisely since there is no observable price level. The price level is an index and an index is an arbitrary figure that could be arrived at through different paths and rationales.

What is important is the rate of change of a constructed price level, so if the index is figured the same way each period, then a rate of change for that index can be computed and used to measure actual changes in purchasing power in contrast to the apparent rate that volatility of some goods suggests. While the price level constructed is an arbitrary figure, it's action is not as long as measurement of the variables over time is reliably accurate.

However, data collection in the case of economic data is not the result of direct observation as in the natural sciences either. Economics is a social science and the data is much looser. Some important economic data is anecdotal rather than observational.

Inflation is a bogus measure when applied beyond the limits of the data, which is most of the time historically and even today in countries without adequate institutional arrangements for data collection and processing. Inflation rates extending back centuries in historical studies are usually presumed to be true. On what basis?

The US is a leader in the field of economic data, and to suggest that its agencies get the data wrong or misconstruct it (Sumner), or manipulate the data for political purposes (Jack Welch) is to suggest that the data upon which macro analysis is founded is garbage. Ergo, macro analysis is GIGO. The question is, How true is that? It's a question I have been pondering for some time. It seems to me that a lot a macro analysis may be GIGO, such as Reinhart & Rogoff turned out to be on critical analysis.

Then there's Robert Eisner's work on national accounting, which also suggests that data is misconstructed and misinterpreted based on the institutional construction and interpretation of national accounting, e.g, in comparison with firm accounting. As a result the reported fiscal balance may not represent the actual fiscal stance, and so politicians are misguided in relying on it to formulate economic policy.

Is there a pernicious tendency to take reported figures for constructs like price index and fiscal balance as exact when they are only estimates or best guesses? Enquiring minds would like to know.

Same goes for medical studies for medications and procedures, as anyone who has had the occasion to question one's physician on specific recommendation and knows what questions to ask comes to realize. Are consumers generally too trusting of physicians recommendations? My conclusion from experience is yes.

There's a lot of flying by the seat of the pants that gets swept under the rug of conscious awareness in the presumption of a degree of exactitude that is non-existent.

Thursday, July 4, 2013

James Hamilton — Off-balance-sheet federal liabilities

Here's the abstract for a paper I recently completed on Off-Balance-Sheet Federal Liabilities:
Much attention has been given to the recent growth of the U.S. federal debt. This paper examines the growth of federal liabilities that are not included in the officially reported numbers. These take the form of implicit or explicit government guarantees and commitments. The five major categories surveyed include support for housing, other loan guarantees, deposit insurance, actions taken by the Federal Reserve, and government trust funds. The total dollar value of notional off-balance-sheet commitments came to $70 trillion as of 2012, or 6 times the size of the reported on-balance-sheet debt. The paper reviews the potential costs and benefits of these off-balance-sheet commitments and their role in precipitating or mitigating the financial crisis of 2008.
What follows is a brief summary of the paper....
Econobrower
Off-balance-sheet federal liabilities
James Hamilton

"...costing U.S. taxpayers..."
These off-balance-sheet concerns may or may not translate into significant on-balance-sheet problems. But one thing seems undeniable-- they are huge. And implicit or explicit commitments of such a huge size have the potential to have huge economic consequences, perhaps for the better, perhaps for the worse.
It's possible that the sky will fall, but it could also be an especially nice time. Thanks for the weather report.