Chris Hamilton — The End Of Growth Among "Haves" Dooms Growth Among "Haves" & "Have Nots" Alike

The global economic system is premised on growth, not just any growth, but growth where it matters (economically). However, population growth (the foundation of economic growth) among the high and upper middle income nations of the world is rapidly winding down. As I have outlined previously, total births have been declining among the combined high/upper middle income nations since 1988 and now births are declining everywhere but among the low income nations of the world (HERE). Without growth among the importers of the world with the income, savings, and/or access to credit...there is no growth for exporters.

The high and upper middle income nations represent 49% of the worlds population but 91% of global GNI (gross national income) and 89% of total global energy consumption (as well as gross commodity consumption). The decades, or more properly, centuries of growth among these wealthier under 65 year old populations (that drove economic activity) will cease around 2022. All subsequent population growth will be among the 65+ year olds of the wealthier nations, particularly among the 75+yr/old population and the masses of the poor nations. The end of population growth and subsequent reversals in these wealthier nations is ushering in an era of economic and consumptive decline unlike the contemporary world has ever seen....

Unless the "haves" figure out that the way out is to make the "have-nots" also "haves" by using demand-side economics.

How likely is this?

Zero Hedge
The End Of Growth Among "Haves" Dooms Growth Among "Haves" & "Have Nots" Alike
Chris Hamilton via Econimica

Peter Cooper — Growth is Good?

Whenever the topic of economic growth is broached, there is a common and understandable reaction along the lines that growth is ecologically unsustainable or socially harmful. Since one of the preoccupations of this blog is demand-led growth, it is perhaps worth pausing to reflect on the appropriateness of the topic. This can be broken down into two parts. Why consider growth as such? And why emphasize the possibility that growth is demand led?...

heteconomist
Growth is Good?
Peter Cooper

Ann Saphir — Check your math, central banker says: less immigration equals less growth

Less than week after a U.S. President Donald Trump embraced legislation to reduce immigration, Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari urged residents of South Dakota to embrace newcomers instead.

"Just going to math, if a big source of economic growth is population growth, and your population growth slows, either because you restrict immigration or because you have fewer babies, your economic growth is going to slow," Kashkari said at the Rotary Club of Downtown Sioux Falls, responding to a question about a Trump-backed bill to cut legal immigration by 50 percent over the next 10 years. "Do we want economic growth, or not? That’s what it comes down to."

Kashkari not alone in seeing immigration as key to U.S. economic growth.

Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan routinely points out that immigrants have historically boosted U.S. workforce growth, and therefore economic growth, and has warned that the crackdown on illegal immigration could hurt consumer spending. Fed Chair Janet Yellen told U.S. lawmakers earlier this year that slowing immigration could probably hurt growth....

And "everybody knows a rising tide lifts all boats." (snark)

Reuters
Check your math, central banker says: less immigration equals less growth

Ann Saphir

Cristina Casabón — More people live inside this circle than outside it - and other demographic data you should know

With the progressive integration of China, India and other large developing countries into the world economy, hundreds of millions will compete in the global market to reach higher living standards. Global structures of production, trade, employment and wages will change with the relocation of people, enterprises, capital flows and financial globalisation.

The consequences of global population changes will affect billions of people, and therefore, we will need to revise migration policies and implement new changes in their economic models. It's ok to raise concern about this challenge, but we never shouldn't underestimate our ability to innovate, solve problems and create ideas, as this is the only solution to confront our global challenges. The world grows and changes, and more brains thinking solutions and policies will be necessary.

Emerging challenges — and opportunities.

World Economic Forum
More people live inside this circle than outside it - and other demographic data you should know

Cristina Casabón | Digital Content Specialist

FRBSL — Russia's Economy Is Catching the U.S.'s, but It Has a Long Way to Go

Russia is catching up with the U.S. in terms of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, according to a recent article in The Regional Economist. However, it still has a long way to go.

Research Officer and Economist Guillaume Vandenbroucke examined a few statistics to see where Russia’s economy stands relative to the U.S.’s economy.…

Vandenbroucke concluded that Russia has a long way to go to catch up with the U.S. in terms of GDP per capita, but the gap is closing, thanks to productivity growth. He wrote: “But a deeper problem faces Russia: Why is its population shrinking? Will this phenomenon last, or will population rise again?”

FRBSL — On the economy
Russia's Economy Is Catching the U.S.'s, but It Has a Long Way to Go

Jason Smith — Is CPI an information-theoretic measure of labor force size?

Interesting speculation on inflation rate.

Information Transfer Economics
Is CPI an information-theoretic measure of labor force size?
Jason Smith

Sober Look — Rental home shortage is America's next housing crisis

Economists, politicians, and the media continue to focus on slow home sales as an indication of weak housing markets. But they are simply "fighting the last war". The looming crisis is not about how often homes change hands, but about the shortage of rentals and the rising cost of shelter that the new generations of Americans will increasingly face.

Sober Look

Rental home shortage is America's next housing crisis