Paul Krugman — Sources of the Budget Deficit

The point is that more than 90 percent of the rise in the deficit relative to pre-crisis projections is related directly to the crisis — and probably that’s true of the other bit too, although it’s harder to show.

Read it at The New York Times | Conscience of a Liberal
Sources of the Budget Deficit (very short)
Paul Krugman

Federal tax receipts start to collapse

It was only a matter of time with the economy so weak. Federal tax recreipts are starting to fall when viewed on a year-over-year basis. They're still up versus last year, but starting to drop.

This suggests two things: a) the deficit will rise and b) when they go negative year-over-year the economy will have hit bottom. (Automatic stabilizers kicking in to support output.)