Strategic Culture Foundation
Why Is Europe Courting Revolution?
Alastair Crooke | founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, and former British diplomat and senior figure in British intelligence and in European Union diplomacy
Tuesday, November 3, 2020
Why Is Europe Courting Revolution? — Alastair Crooke
Strategic Culture Foundation
Why Is Europe Courting Revolution?
Alastair Crooke | founder and director of the Conflicts Forum, and former British diplomat and senior figure in British intelligence and in European Union diplomacy
The Russia-China vote — Pepe Escobar
Western neoliberalism on the rocks?
The Vineyard of the Saker
The Russia-China vote
Pepe Escobar
See also
The dragon spreads its wings — while the eagle and bear watch, each from a different angle.
China's New 15-Year Vision: 'Dual Circulation' To Sustainable Growth
Dan Steinbock, Difference Group
Flu Shot May Shield You From Severe COVID
I keep forgetting to get one, but hopefully, I will remember by the end of the week.
MONDAY, Nov. 2, 2020 (HealthDay News) -- The coronavirus and the flu are two entirely different viruses. But a new study suggests those who get a flu vaccine face a considerably lower risk for being hospitalized if and when they get COVID-19.
And the flu vaccine also appears to significantly reduce a COVID-19 patient's risk for ending up in an intensive care unit (ICU), researchers say
Flu Shot May Shield You From Severe COVID
My Paper “Fiat Money, Cryptocurrencies and the Pure Theory of Money” is now available on SSRN — David Glasner
I have just posted a draft of a paper that will appear in a forthcoming volume, Edward Elgar Handbook of Blockchain and Cryptocurrencies. The paper draws on a number of my earlier posts on fiat currencies, bitcoins and cryptocurrencies, such as this, this, this and this.
Here is the abstract of my paper.
Uneasy Money
My Paper “Fiat Money, Cryptocurrencies and the Pure Theory of Money” is now available on SSRN
David Glasner | Economist at the Federal Trade Commission
My Paper “Fiat Money, Cryptocurrencies and the Pure Theory of Money” is now available on SSRN
David Glasner | Economist at the Federal Trade Commission
How India’s Modi Is Changing Laws to Help Imperialists Dominate the Country’s Agriculture — Prabhat Patnaik
The two bills rushed through India’s parliament on September 20 were objectionable in every conceivable sense. The very fact that they were being rammed through the Rajya Sabha, without being put to vote despite demands for a division, was grossly anti-democratic. The fact that the Center made unilateral and fundamental changes in agricultural marketing arrangements that fall within the State List of the Seventh Schedule of the Constitution was a blow against federalism. To resurrect the pre-independence arrangement under which the peasantry was exposed to the capitalist market without any support of the state, and which crushed it during the Great Depression of the 1930s, was a betrayal of the promise of independence. To pit millions of small peasants against the might of a handful of private buyers, as the bills propose to do, is to open them up to monopsonistic exploitation, meaning exploitation by a single or a few buyers.Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, of course, has been claiming that the state is not leaving peasants at the mercy of the monopsonists and that the government-guaranteed minimum support price (MSP) regime will continue. But the bills contain nothing on this; and the government refuses to incorporate into law, which testifies to its bad faith, the right of the peasantry to get a minimum support price in accordance with the Swaminathan Commission recommendation that puts the MSP at Cost C2 plus 50 per cent. The peasants in short are being thrown, as under colonialism, to the mercies of a market where price fluctuations have a notoriously high amplitude; and they are rightly putting up a fight against their descent into debt and destitution....
Socialist Project
How India’s Modi Is Changing Laws to Help Imperialists Dominate the Country’s Agriculture
Prabhat Patnaik
Bill Mitchell — Cutting wages in a deep recession is not a sensible policy
Victoria went the so-called ‘double doughnut’ again today with zero new infections and zero deaths – the fourth consecutive day. It now has the lowest number of people sick with the virus (known) since the start of the pandemic in Australia in February. Only 38 active cases remain in Victoria after its 12 week lockdown. There is no community transmission reported now in Victoria and the other day Australia recorded zero (community transmitted) cases overall. So things are less tense than they were. I still haven’t been able to travel to my office in Melbourne which I have been away from since the lockdowns started in June. But hope springs eternal that the NSW government will open the border and let us move freely between the States. At the same time, the NSW government is demonstrating its economic incompetence. The State Treasurer announced that in the midst of the worst crisis in 100 years, it is cutting the pay of its public servants when it brings down its fiscal statement. Clue: when in a deep recession with records levels of household debt dramatically constraining growth in household consumption expenditure, which in turn, is killing growth, then the sure fire way to make matters worse by cutting the very source of consumption expenditure – yes, you get it – workers’ wages....Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Cutting wages in a deep recession is not a sensible policy
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
The MMT Myth — Otmar Issing
I don't put up criticism of MMT unless it is informed and Otmar Issing at least knows the basics. His response is predictable since he is a well-known financial conservative even in Germany, which is the the contemporary bastion of the Treasury view. He still thinks that monetary policy administered by an independent central bank works, in spite of the facts.
His argument against MMT? Currency debasement.
Project SyndicateThe MMT Myth
Otmar Issing, President of the Center for Financial Studies at Goethe University, Frankfurt and former chief economist and member of the board of the European Central Bank.
See also
Is currency debasement going to be the new meme?
Too embarrassed to ask: what is a deficit?
Xi Says Economy Can Double as China Lays Out Ambitious Plans
In another article I read (SMCP) said that Xi was going to boost state run industries as they had performed so well during the covid crisis.
That will require 4.7% growth per year to achieve: Bocom
China will also aim for high-income nation status by 2025
Chinese President Xi Jinping said the economy can double in size by 2035 and the country can reach high-income status in the next five years as the Communist Party outlined ambitious plans for the nation’s future.
Xi Says Economy Can Double as China Lays Out Ambitious Plans
The election is here and this is my market outlook.
Yesterday in my MMT Trader report I said that the October market correction was over and we'd see an election rally and a sizable surge in bullish sentiment.
Separately, fiscal support remains too strong to be bearish on the economy and stock market right now, but there's more to it.
Starting from the market bottom in late March through the rise to new highs in the averages, sentiment remained bearish. I couldn't fathom why. However, in the last few weeks as Biden surged in the polls and talk of a "blue wave" percolated, I started to notice a shift toward a more bullish outlook on the part of investors.
My reading of this is that investors are waiting...hoping, for a change.
A Biden win will trigger a surge in optimism and you will see stocks rally. Bullish sentiment will skyrocket.
The "end game," however, will be different than most people expect, I believe.
That's because Biden is no progressive. He's a fiscal hawk. There's a long history of his advocating for government spending cuts and "fiscal responsibility."
That means there won't be any big stimulus under Biden. More importantly, I believe, he will take the Bill Clinton path and look to rein in the deficit.
This will set up an important top in the stock market and the economy will slide into deep and lasting recession.
That's my outlook.
Christian leader says Jesus was ‘advocating for the 2nd Amendment
Except... he conveniently left out that the Bible passage was referring to Satan.
Matt Barber, the former policy director of the Concerned Women for America, said that Jesus supported the right to bear arms.
The only problem? The Bible passage he quotes isn’t about Jesus telling people to arm themselves – Jesus was presenting a parable about Satan.
*****
Fuelled by fears of post-election protests, US gun sales hit historic highs ahead of the presidential polls
Idaho lieutenant gov. appears in video slamming virus rules, whether ‘a pandemic may or may not be occurring’
Monday, November 2, 2020
Jack Ma Gets a Warning From China on Ant’s Rapid Expansion — Bloomberg
Yahoo Finance
Jack Ma Gets a Warning From China on Ant’s Rapid Expansion
Bloomberg
Parameter Uncertainty Is Not The Same Thing As Model Uncertainty — Brian Romanchuk
One way to model model uncertainty is to have uncertainty about model parameters. Although there can be times where this technique is adequate, it does capture the true nature of model uncertainty. Model uncertainty refers to situations where a baseline model is missing dynamics found in the real world system. Ideally, analysis should be robust to this type of uncertainty.…
Bond EconomicsMore generally [in economics], the possibility of models being incorrect are effectively underweighted. The assumption is that prediction errors are the result of external shocks hitting a known model (albeit one with parameter variability), and not the effect of missing dynamics. More specifically, the possibility of the interaction of the preferred methodology with models that do not conform to assumptions is not taken seriously enough.
Parameter Uncertainty Is Not The Same Thing As Model Uncertainty
Brian Romanchuk
Russian and Belorussian Defense Ministers Give Important Update on Belarus — Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and Belorussian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin
The Vineyard of the Saker
Russian and Belorussian Defense Ministers Give Important Update on Belarus
Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoygu and Belorussian Defense Minister Viktor Khrenin
Xinhua - The think tank behind anti-China propaganda in Australia
You have to be very careful on twitter if you put out positive tweets about China, and always be civil, to never swear, or use swear words with an asterisk in, or use a v instead of a u, because if you do hundreds of paid Hong Kong trolls may complain to twitter to get your account closed down. People swear all the time on twitter, and are abusive, but a lot of people have to complain first before twitter suspends an account.
The Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI) is infamous for churning out anti-China propaganda in Australia.
It pumps out a "one-sided, pro-American view of the world," said Bob Carr, former premier of the New South Wales. "I see it as very much the architect of the China threat theory in Australia," said ex-ambassador to China Geoff Raby.
ANTI-CHINA PROPAGANDA
About two weeks ago, Twitter removed thousands of pro-China accounts following a study by the ASPI.
An article on iTWire, an Australian IT and telecommunications news website, said "ASPI runs a hawkish line on China in a bid to hype up the fear index and make it possible for its donors to sell more weapons to countries in the Asia-Pacific region."
"This is an old strategy," said the article written by Sam Varghese. "It was used by the U.S. in the Middle East and still is."
John Menadue, a former diplomat and ex-Qantas CEO, said the ASPI "lacks integrity and brings shame to Australia."
"Think of how insidious that is," said Geoff Raby in the AFR article. "When the U.S. wages a war, the military industrial complex benefits."
Links on the eve of the election
Conversable Economist
Henry Adams: "Politics ... Had Always Been the Systematic Organization of Hatreds"
Is Political Polarization a Rise in Tribalism?
Max Weber: "He Who Lets Himself in for Politics ... Contracts with Diabolical Powers"
Bertrand Russell: Thoughts on Politics, Passion, and Skepticism
Henry Adams: "Politics ... Had Always Been the Systematic Organization of Hatreds"
Is Political Polarization a Rise in Tribalism?
Max Weber: "He Who Lets Himself in for Politics ... Contracts with Diabolical Powers"
Bertrand Russell: Thoughts on Politics, Passion, and Skepticism
Timothy Taylor | Managing editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, based at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minnesota
U.S. Holds Elections in Conditions it Would Condemn in Other Countries
Mint Press News
Pompeo’s Tweet About Tanzania Election Irregularities Could Have Easily Been About the US
Photos: White House Foists ‘Non-Scalable’ Fence, Choppers Buzz DC Ahead of US Election
Watch: National Guard Troops Arrive In Multiple US Cities Ahead Of Election Night Chaos
Tyler Durden
CNN Business
Nathaniel Meyersohn, Alexis Benveniste and Chauncey Alcorn, CNN Business
Biden Boosted By 'Tens Of Thousands' Of Fake Twitter Followers -- From India
Tyler Durden
Why Is Russian Oil So Expensive? — Viktor Katona
Distributed Energy Projects Could Transform Emerging Economies — Haley Zaremba
As you read this article on your computer or your smartphone, it’s easy to forget that almost a billion people around the world don’t have access to electricity. While most of us can’t imagine life without the internet, much less life without light bulbs, a full 13 percent of the global population will never live with those luxuries. In Brazil, this is not an abstraction, but a stark reality for many of the poorest communities. 23.7 million of Brazil’s total 212 million live in poverty, and bringing energy to every corner of the vast country is a massive undertaking. There are many scientists and researchers, however, who are trying to do just that. Some believe that the answer lies in decentralized and distributed energy production, also known as “energy communities.”...Oilprice
Distributed Energy Projects Could Transform Emerging Economies
Haley Zaremba
Zero Hedge — "This Is Huge": World's Biggest IPO Trades 50% Higher In Gray Market After $3 Trillion In Retail Orders
Demand for Hong Kong shares was so strong that Ant stopped taking orders from professional investors a day earlier than scheduled. Institutions and strategic investors may take up about 97.5% of the offering in Hong Kong, according to Ant’s prospectus, though the figures may change due to clawback and greenshoe provisions.Zero Hedge
Putting these numbers in context, last Thursday, the Chinese financial-technology giant said individual investors in mainland China had placed the equivalent of more than $2.8 trillion of orders for their slice of Ant’s record-breaking initial public offering, which is listing simultaneously in Shanghai and Hong Kong....
"This Is Huge": World's Biggest IPO Trades 50% Higher In Gray Market After $3 Trillion In Retail Orders
Tyler Durden
The $110 Trillion Trend That Bezos, Buffet And Musk Are Betting On — Sascha Kay
Over 3,000 investors with over $110 trillion in assets under management can’t be wrong … That $110 trillion supports “responsible investment”, or ESG investing for a more sustainable future. Some of that $110 trillion dollars is now squarely focused on the electric vehicle (EV) industry....Oilprice
The $110 Trillion Trend That Bezos, Buffet And Musk Are Betting On
Sascha Kay
See also
China Bets On Electric Cars
Miami sound machine
Wild.... Sound Machine now punk...
🎵🎵🎵"I will vote for Donald Trump!"🎵🎵🎵
— RSBN 🇺🇸 (@RSBNetwork) November 2, 2020
Miami is PARTYING as they wait for @realDonaldTrump to arrive!!🔥🔥🔥#MAGA #MiamiForTrump pic.twitter.com/tiFhPkM8yQ
Training Centres in Xinjiang
This woman makes loads of videos about Xinjiang, which she makes for her followers. Of course, this does not mean that there are not more stricter 're-education' centres in Xinjiang. She made this video private for some reason, but I got a few clips of it from twitter.
Uyghur women learning how to make clothes.
She said many women here did not have work and mostly housewives. But after building these centers, families are more willing to let their wives come out and work.
Sunday, November 1, 2020
Bill Mitchell — Long-term unemployment in America falls when employment growth increases
A few weeks ago, I updated my research on the way employment growth accesses the different unemployment duration pools using Australian data. In that blog post (October 19, 2020) – The long-term unemployed are not an inflation constraint in a recovery – I showed that the claim that the long-term unemployed constitute an inflation constraint because employers will not choose to offer them jobs due to perceived scarring is a popular neoliberal assertion but has no basis in the actual data. The orthodox economists use that assertion to justify microeconomic (supply-side) policies (training, activation, etc) rather than direct job creation. The reality is that when employment growth is strong enough, both short-run and long-run pools of the unemployed are accessed by employers. In the latter case, employers alter hiring standards and offer on-the-job training to ensure they do not lose market share. I have received several E-mails stating that the US is different and the long-term unemployed are shunned by employers, which means that trying to stimulate the economy will hit the inflation constraint sooner than if there was a Job Guarantee in place. Logically, there is no reason the US labour market operates differently in any fundamental way to the Australian labour market so I decided to examine the validity of the ‘irreversibility hypothesis’ using US data. Guess what? The hypothesis doesn’t hold up in the US either....Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Long-term unemployment in America falls when employment growth increases
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
Xinjiang training center grads refute rumors from West — China Daily
China has a long history of political rehab.
Ecns.cn (China)
Xinjiang training center grads refute rumors from West
Ecns.cn (China)
Xinjiang training center grads refute rumors from West
China Daily (state sponsored)
Unconditional job guarantee to be trialled in Austria, in world first — Jon Stone
Out-of-work people in Austria will be guaranteed paid jobs as part of a new trial policy that could transform how countries deal with unemployment.Pilot study in one town.
The pilot study, which will eliminate long-term unemployment in the town of Marienthal practically overnight, has been designed by Oxford University economists at the behest of the Lower Austria’s department of work.
It will see all long-term unemployed people in the town, an estimated 150 individuals, given work in fields such as childcare, gardening or home renovations, and paid a full wage....
Gweilo 60 - LIVING POOR in CHINA it's better than you think!
This is a very good video about a poor village in China. What struck me was how happy the villagers were, especially the children, who are incredible sweet. Although these villagers are poor, they don't live in poverty. Their rural life hasn't changed for centuries.
Up in the mountains some Chinese do live in poverty, as it's difficult to grow enough nutritious food in the habitat, but the CPC is bringing to them services, schools, roads, and the Internet, plus teams of experts are sent to show the villagers how to grow more nutritious food, and even create a surplus for market. I will put a video out about that soon.
We spend the day in Bobai China and you can see my extended family in this video. We are in a small Village called Bobai. Many people have heard me talk about this place in past videos. Well now you get to see it. It is poor, Old and Beautiful all at the same time. There is an actual Rice Combine in this video. I have never seen one until I shot this video. You will see my cousins, aunt, uncle, nieces and nephew. This is a place close to both Weifang's and my heart. The people are amazing.
The partisan divide in factual beliefs is not just insincere political cheerleading, according to new research — Eric W. Dolan
Partisan disagreements about politically relevant facts appear to represent genuine differences in beliefs rather than insincere cheerleading, according to new research published in the American Journal of Political Science.…
The findings are line with another study, published in The Journal of Politics, which found evidence that survey responses about untrue political rumors were mostly accurate measures of genuine beliefs.…
So much for critical thinking. Cognitive-affective bias wins. And this is the basis of persuasion.
PsyPostThe partisan divide in factual beliefs is not just insincere political cheerleading, according to new research
Eric W. Dolan
Jim Rogers is a fucking moron
How many times is this fucking idiot going to say, "the next recession is going to be the worst in my lifetime?"
He says it every fucking time. He just said it again.
He looks into the future and sees a terrible reckoning ahead; one he predicts will be “the worst economic crisis of my lifetime”
I don't know who's worse: Rogers or the media people who keep asking him give his idiotic points of view.
George Soros made this guy rich, and thanks to that we have to listen to this idiot drone on endlessly.
Effect Of Recessions On r* Estimates — Brian Romanchuk
This article demonstrates the importance of recessions in driving down the r* estimate produced by the Holsten-Laubach-Williams (HLW) methodology. Although there are other algorithms that can be used to generate a r* estimate, my argument is that they should have similar qualitative properties. In the case of the HLW estimate, my argument is that the nature of the recession in 2008 is a major contributor to the fall in r* thereafter. The underlying problem is that real-world data does not match the probability distribution assumed in the algorithm.Bond Economics
Effect Of Recessions On r* Estimates
Brian Romanchuk
Evonomics — Ayn Rand Meets Her Match: David Sloan Wilson Fights Fiction with Fiction
October 31, 2020
From the editor:
When it comes to justifying the “Greed is Good” ideology of neoliberal economics, Ayn Rand is mentioned as often as major economists such as Milton Friedman, Friedrich Hayek, and Adam Smith. Rand regarded herself as a philosopher and labelled her philosophy Objectivism, but it was her novel Atlas Shrugged that had the greatest influence, selling over seven million copies since its publication in 1957. Rand understood that fiction can be more effective than equations and dry intellectual discourse when she wrote “Art is the essential medium for the communication of a moral ideal.”
For all the critiques of neoliberalism by economists and intellectuals of all stripes, no one has thought to challenge Rand on her own fictional turf. Until now, with the publication of David Sloan Wilson’s novel Atlas Hugged.
Wilson is perhaps uniquely qualified to write an anti-Rand novel. Not only is he actively engaged in rethinking economics as a scientist, with numerous articles in prestigious economics journals, but fiction runs in his family. His father, Sloan Wilson, wrote two iconic novels of the 20th century: The Man in the Gray Flannel Suit (1955), which described the corporate army that formed after World War II, and A Summer Place (1958), which described changing sexual mores during the same period. David Sloan Wilson regards his first novel as a kind of homecoming.
In the Preface to Atlas Hugged, Wilson recounts how the idea of fighting fiction with fiction was suggested by someone else during one of the first workshops on economics from an evolutionary perspective that he had organized. Within minutes, the title and beginning of a plotline flashed into his mind. The main character would be John Galt III, the grandson of Rand’s main character, whose father was a libertarian media giant like Rush Limbaugh. Ayn Rand was not a character in her own novel, but—since anything goes in fiction–Wilson could transport her into his novel in the form of Ayn Rant. It was too delicious not to indulge!
Atlas Hugged is so anti-Rand that it isn’t even being sold. Instead, it is being gifted for whatever the reader wishes to give in return, with all proceeds going to Wilson’s new nonprofit organization, Prosocial World. How fitting, since the very word “give” was banned from the vocabulary of the ideal society imagined by Rand in her novel.
Evonomics.com is proud to publish an excerpt from Atlas Hugged. The e-book and paperback can be ordered on www.AtlasHugged.world.…
Summary of the book follows.
Evonomics
Ayn Rand Meets Her Match: David Sloan Wilson Fights Fiction with Fiction
Editor
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