The election is here and this is my market outlook.

 Yesterday in my MMT Trader report I said that the October market correction was over and we'd see an election rally and a sizable surge in bullish sentiment.

Separately, fiscal support remains too strong to be bearish on the economy and stock market right now, but there's more to it.

Starting from the market bottom in late March through the rise to new highs in the averages, sentiment remained bearish. I couldn't fathom why. However, in the last few weeks as Biden surged in the polls and talk of a "blue wave" percolated, I started to notice a shift toward a more bullish outlook on the part of investors.

My reading of this is that investors are waiting...hoping, for a change.

A Biden win will trigger a surge in optimism and you will see stocks rally. Bullish sentiment will skyrocket.

The "end game," however, will be different than most people expect, I believe.

That's because Biden is no progressive. He's a fiscal hawk. There's a long history of his advocating for government spending cuts and "fiscal responsibility."

That means there won't be any big stimulus under Biden. More importantly, I believe, he will take the Bill Clinton path and look to rein in the deficit.

This will set up an important top in the stock market and the economy will slide into deep and lasting recession.

That's my outlook.

#TBT How I predicted this stock market rally back in January.

Back in January RBS came out with a call that I said, would end up to be "the worst call of 2016."

I was completely correct. And I stayed bullish throughout, even during some very scary downturns in the market when a lot of "big shots" were selling.

It was all about the flows.

The flows suck right now.

Stock rally getting ahead of itself?

The bullish stock market/economy Trump meme is based on what? We don't know yet.

Stocks in new record territory as I predicted all along. MMT Trader had the numbers saying that it would.

Stocks in new record high territory as I said would happen. Every downdraft, when the voices of recession, crash, disaster were everywhere, I was saying that fiscal flows were exceptionally strong and that you had to buy into weakness and stocks were going higher. The economy will beat growth expectations, too.

There are more gains to come. This is just the beginning.

MMT Trader.

MMT Trader scored me some big profits today!

Long stocks and the S&P E-mini contract. Took out 60 ticks or, $3000 on that trade.

Short 10-year note futures. Took 21 ticks or, $656.25 on that trade.

Most analysts and pundits have been either out of hte stock market or short. I analyze the fiscal flows. (Top line government spending flows.)

That is what has kept me on the right side of the market this whole entire time.

Other positions
Bought Apple, Inc @ 90.67.
Made 187 pips in USDJPY
Made 140 pips in GBPUSD

Plus many more.

Get a free 30-day trial to MMT Trader today and start trading the MMT way!

Druckenmiller, another billionaire hedge fund guy who knows jack shit, just gave you the green light to buy stocks

Another guy who's probably more luck than smart. Yeah, he's a billionaire, don't ask me how. This is the guy who was screaming, for years, that we were going to get hyperinflation because of "money printing by the Fed." And he runs some organization reduce America's debt. Another dangerous, educated, fool.

Well, he's back now saying the bull market has "exhausted itself."

Listen...

“I have argued that the myopic policymakers have no end game,” Druckenmiller said. "They stumble from one short-term fiscal or monetary stimulus to the next despite overwhelming evidence that they only produce a sugar high and grow unproductive debt that impedes long-term growth. Moreover, the continued decline of global growth despite unprecedented stimulus the past decade suggest we have borrowed so much from our future and for so long that the chickens are now coming home to roost."

Stumble. Sugar high. Chickens coming home to roost.

Jesus. WTF????

Why? Because it's 3% from an all-time record high?

He blames it on a "radical monetary experiment."

And what is his brilliant investment idea? Buy gold of course.

This is a 100% green light to buy stocks. We can all laugh and look back on this moron's "call" in six months.

Buy stocks. Fade the idiots.

#Fadetheidiots

I love this...some NYSE trader says "we won't see new all-time highs anytime soon." Bet against him! Flows are strong!!

You gotta bet against this guy. His view is based on what? Looking at charts? Market "action" whatever that means?

My view is based on the ONE THING that definitely CAN power this market to all-time highs, and SOON, for that matter and that is fiscal flows. They're really starting to ramp up now.

Bet against the pessimists.

And, oh yeah, for all you deficit watchers...the deficit is rising.

Here's what the pundits and the media were saying on Feb 11. Then listen to what I said on the very same day.

In compiling my MMT Trader report I scan headlines to get a snapshot of sentiment. Well, I came across these old headlines, all from Feb 11.

So, the media and the pundits were panicking. 

The Dow was at 15660. 

The S&P was at 1829

The Nasdaq was at 4266.

Here's what I said, the very same day...

That's all I gotta say.

MMT Trader...get it.

Who made this call? I did!

Back in January when the market was selling off I said that it would end up to t be a major bottom for the year. In early February when the interruption of IRS tax refunds was rectified, I issued a "Buy, Buy, Buy" recommendation and the market literally took off the day I said that.

No one else out there made these calls. In fact there were some terrible calls, like the RBS "catastrophic selloff" call that I said would go down as the worst call by by any forecaster ever made (at least this year).

How did I do this? Do I have a crystal ball? Well, yes and no. I have been looking at flows. I have been talking about flows. Without question this has given me insight into the markets that have been far more prescient than those looking at anything else, including and especially, deficits.

This blog has been more accurate than any other source of market or economic information out there. It's something to think about. We're growing and I am pleased. We have a lot of really intelligent, thoughtful, followers and contributors and commenters, but why we don't have a million readers a month is beyond me.

I guess you don't find diamonds lying around in the street. That's what makes them valuable.

Stock picking course combined with MMT principles

Are you confused or daunted by stock picking? Do you rely on clueless or high-priced stock brokers or tips from friends? Do you buy companies that are losing money, pay no dividends, then watch as your stocks fall back and never recover?

Do you buy when prices are rising instead of when they're "on sale?"

I am going to tell you something that may sound hard to believe, but it's true: stock picking is easy.

Picking good, high quality dividend paying stocks at deep discounts is incredibly easy and not at all time consuming.

That alone should be good enough, but when you combine stock picking with MMT and the knowledge of government spending flows then the stock market becomes an amazing wealth creating machine.

I have created a seminar that teaches stock selection combined with the principles of MMT and government spending flows right from the Daily Treasury Statement.

You take this course, you learn these methods and I guarantee you the stock market will not only become a great wealth generator for you, but something that will be extremely fun as a pastime or hobby.

I LOVE investing in stocks. I LOVE taking money away from people who don't know what they're doing and who get all emotional. And I do all of this with literally ZERO stress.

If you have any interest in stock investing whatsoever and if growing your wealth is something you're interested in then you absolutely MUST take my course next Friday.

The course fee is $595, but if you email me now I will give you a coupon worth $100 off.

Or you can just fill out this form and tell me you would like to enroll and you want the $100 discount.

See you in class!

We crushed it here at MNE! Sorry, no one even came close.

First I want to address a post I put up here the day of the conclusion of the Fed meeting when I said the stock rally (that day) wouldn't last and that we'd stall.

Well, that didn't happen, obviously.

However, that shouldn't diminish the fact that I said here, here, here, here and here (and probably a lot more places, but I am too lazy to look) where I said you gotta buy stocks and I gave you the reason: flows.

Two things: the flows are back and market sentiment is now shifting to very bullish.

The market is in a sweet spot now with sentiment aligned with direction (and fundamentals). It's going a lot higher and the only chance you'll have for a correction will be when the Fed raises rates. And it will. When that happens there will be some sort of bearish knee-jerk reaction and you'll have a chance to buy, however, by that time the stock market could be significantly higher.

By the way, remember all those people who were panicking and saying "sell" and there would be a catastrophe? Remember the RBS call? They were all completely and utterly wrong.

The "low hanging" fruit is probably gone. Maybe not. Depends on your definition of low hanging. I like really low hanging, like when people are selling like crazy. That's when I buy because it's like the idiots are just giving you their money. Take David Einhorn's money, remember?

There could be a "low hanging fruit" trade right now and that's shorting Treasuries. Even the idiots now think the Fed will never be able to raise. (After years of telling us how rates were going to skyrocket.) Short Treasuries. NO ONE is talking about that except, you guessed it, right here on MNE. Like, we always scoop everyone.

Which brings me to the economy. If you are thinking recession because the deficit is too small, forget it. No chance. The flows are big and this stock market rally, which will continue, will boost confidence and spending.

The people with the forecasts based on deficits for the last three years should just man up and throw in the towel.

Once again we got it all right here by looking at flows. It's all about flows or, mostly about flows anyway.

Oh yeah, how about the "oil bottom" call that I made back in January? Maybe a little early, but the market is 30% higher now. Not bad.

And what about the dollar going down? And gold rallying? Franco with metals prices bottoming, too. Jeez, I almost forgot those.

I swear, this site should have a million visitors a month. It's crazy that we don't.

Like I said, I must suck at marketing.

I will be giving a stock picking course on March 25. Find out more.

Attend my stock picking course.  Friday, March 25 from 9am NY time to 4pm NY time.

I will be giving a stock picking course Friday, March 25. The course fee is $595. Here's what you will learn...

Here are some of the things I will teach you in my value stock selection course:

• How to select high quality, dividend paying stocks below market value
  
• How to time entry and exits with ease
• How to correctly diversify your portfolio
• Knowing when entire industry groups become undervalued
• Picking the cream of the crop of stocks at huge discounts
• How to have the proper "Mental Game"

Plus more.

For more info click below or, email me.

-Mike Norman

Stocks rally on Fed "no-raise" decision, but I don't think the rally will last

Classic "knee-jerk" (more like, just, "jerk") buying, but I don't think the rally will last.

As I stated in an earlier post, spending is slowing some so I think we are in a stall. The overall outlook still remains positive, but I think we actually NEED a rate hike to add some juice to the market rally.

Let's see.

We got it ALL correct. Here. At MNE. Not anywhere else. Not even at other MMT sites.

We were following flows, not defiicts.

We got it all correct--the economy, stocks, gold, the dollar. Go back and do a search here on any of these terms and see how we called it. And you didn't have to wait three years (or more) and watch markets and economic forecasts go wrong in your face.

We called it precisely.

No need to go anywhere else.

I told you to buy the dips

You can listen to others who have been wrong for three years running, worried about the size of the deficit or, you can follow us here when we tell you about far more important flows.

I told you yesterday to buy the dips.

I told you there would be no recession.

I WILL TELL YOU when to get worried, but it's NOT NOW.

Keep buying the dips. Spending really accelerating now.

Federal Government spending is really accelerating now. We are $45 billion over last year and last year was the biggest increase in six years. There will NOT be a recession. You can look at the deficit all you want; you're wasting your time. The Fed will raise rates at least two more time this year.

The stock market is giving everyone easy opportunities to get in. There's been plenty of good, back and forth action. That won't always be the case. We'll go parabolic at some point.

Forex is also presenting great opportunities. If you don't trade forex, get my course.

Stock market putting in a major bottom for the year now in January

I predict that the stockmarket is putting in a major bottom for the year right now. While Jamuary could end up "flat" relative to where the market finished off in December (S&P 2043), these deep lows that we are seeing now should be bought without question.

There are three reasons.

First, we will soon be entering into what is seasonally, the most powerful fiscal time of the year, where fiscal injections skyrocket due to tax refunds. Last February saw nearly $460 billion of net spending in a sigle month. Huge. This is highly supportive. The market rallied 5.5% and 8% the year before when there was also $460 billion of injections.

Secondly, everyone is selling for all the wrong reasons. They don't udnerstand what's happenig in China, the transition of that economy from an export driven model to one of domestic consumption. This takes time and it's disruptive, but it's also a long-term positive. The volatiltiy, lately, is realy due to the Chinese authorities messing around with stupid, Western-oriented economic ideas, currency manipulation, monetary policy, etc. However, as we showed here a couple of weeks ago, Chinese gov't spending is surging. That's ultimately very supportive.

Finally, the U.S. economy is doing pretty nicely. We saw the jobs numbers today. They were way better than expected. Employment and withholding taxes collected by the Federal gov't are surging, giving no indication that the job market is topping out.

I'll even throw in a fourth reason, which is something that I don't usually pay attention to, but some people do. The deficit is growing again. That's right, for the first time in six years the deficit is expanding. I wonder what some people will say?

Anyway, that's my forecast.

Budget deal is unequivocally bullish for stocks, economy. Buy the S&P and take a vacation until March 2017.

The biggest negative factor that we have been talking about here--the debt ceiling--is now out of the way until March 2017. We are in the clear, having averted what could have been a disastrous default of the entire U.S. economy.

With this new budget deal the amount of fiscal stimulus will be significant. Not only does the Congressional Budget Office anticipate a spending increase of over $230 billion over the next two years, the additional spending of $112 billion implied in this budget deal means that spending over the next two years will rise by nearly $340 billion.

That is significant and it means two things for sure:

1) The economy WILL NOT go into recession

2) You can go buy stocks now (buy the S&P Index, it's simpler) and basically take a vacation until March 2017. You will be handsomely rewarded.

I don't care what anyone is telling you about the deficit, they are going to be wrong. And if I end up being wrong here in my prediction, feel free never to read this blog again or mock me from now until forever.

Oh, and one more thing...the dollar will fall because some pricing power will return to foreign exporters. And if and when the euro rises it won't be because it has become "harder to get." It's all about price, not quantity. People should know that.

P.S. If and when the Fed raises rates (and they will) that will be an added fiscal stimulus. Those who have been saying here, that it doesn't work that way, can also call me out as ignorant if it in fact doesn't end up to be bullish.

Aug 24, I was on Fox and the market opened down 1000. I said, "Stay calm. Buy!"

Can't do much better than this. And oh yeah...I followed it up by predicting that the Dow would rebound to 17,000. Here we are.

Insane market selloff

This is an insane market selloff. Good companies are getting decimated. Apple has lost $200 BILLION in market capitalization over nothing.

Still have $4.3 trillion of Federal spending this year. That is up over $100 billion from last year. Yes, the deficit has shrunk, but the flows are sufficient to sustain growth around 2.5% or,  where we've been.

China is going to be fine in the long run. It's economy is still growing at 7.5%.

Insane selloff. Unbelievable bargains. I am buying. My only regret is that I wish I had more money to buy more.