Friday, December 2, 2011

Mish parses the unemployment numbers — "statistical mirage"



Read the whole post (long and detailed) at MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis
Unemployment Rate Dips to 8.6% as 487,000 Drop Out of Labor Force
by Michael "Mish" Shedlock

Conclusion:
The official unemployment rate is 8.6%. However, if you start counting all the people that want a job but gave up, all the people with part-time jobs that want a full-time job, all the people who dropped off the unemployment rolls because their unemployment benefits ran out, etc., you get a closer picture of what the unemployment rate is. That number is in the last row labeled U-6.
While the "official" unemployment rate is an unacceptable 8.6%, U-6 is much higher at 15.6%.
Falling unemployment rate would normally be considered a good thing, but not if it is happening because 1,793,000 people stopped looking for work. 
Things are much worse than the reported numbers would have you believe. The entire economic picture is on very thin ice given the clear slowdown in the global economy.

1 comment:

Scott R. said...

I give Mish some credit here..., he is about the only one I have seen who has used the correct terminology. Those folks who have dropped off the the unemployment numbers haven't "stopped looking for work"..., the truth of the matter is they have "stopped receiving unemployment benefits". That sounds a lot more alarming..., and it should be emphasized more..., MUCH more.