Friday, April 20, 2012

CR — Zillow's forecast for Case-Shiller House Price index in February

The composite 10 and 20 indexes declined 3.9% and 3.8% respectively in January, after declining 4.1% in December. Zillow is forecasting a smaller year-over-year decline in February.
Read it at Calculated Risk
Zillow's forecast for Case-Shiller House Price index in February
by Bill McBride

Housing recovery is key to economic recovery. Looks like the bottom may not be in yet, and typically there is V-shaped recovery in housing, especially in a recession due to financial instability and a long financial cycle bottoming. This will likely be a multi-year recovery process once the bottom is in, and another housing boom is likely at least a decade off after the market bottoms and begins to clear. There are still a lot of foreclosures in the pipeline, and many homeowners underwater. This creates a huge drag on the economy, which is exacerbated by a misguided political preference for austerity. Not an encouraging picture.

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