Nate Silver — Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage

Über-statistician Nate Silver explores the issues and numbers in some depth. Must-read for political wonks (you know who you are and you know that already), but it is instructive in general about drawing conclusions based on isolated events or fragmentary evidence, which is why I am bringing it. up. We are doing political economy here rather than theoretical economics, and politics is key in policy determination.

That's the meta. The local is that now that his opponent is all but certain, Obama is in front out of the gate. But it is a long and challenging course. Obama's big advantage is that he has already run it and won. Experience in campaigns counts.

Read it at The New York Times | Five Thirty Eight
Election Forecast: Obama Begins With Tenuous Advantage
by Nate Silver