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Barring an October surprise, Obama is the favorite to win. Intrade has him at 75%, and Nate Silver also is calling it for Obama at this point.I expect the Dems to cut the GOP majority in the House and retain the Senate. It's conceivable that the Dems could take the House back in 2014, giving Obama a Dem legislature in his final two years. I doubt that the Dems can muster a super-majority in the Senate, but they could change the filibuster rule.Romney supporters are literally praying for a miracle now. That's not a good sign for his chances, absent divine intervention.I think that the only hope for the GOP at this stage is either some October surprise or Romney mopping the floor with Obama in the debates, which is highly unlikely. Romney has to risk and the president can play it safe.The campaigning is also likely to go extremely negative but the Dems are unlikely to be caught off guard this time, and Obama has finally awoken to the fact that he needs to bring a gun to a knife fight.Can the GOP overwhelm the Dems with cash in the final weeks. I rather doubt it. Wall Street seems to be hedging its debts now, and in a strong positon the president can tap the deep pockets.The wild card is voter suppression, or some other dirty tricks, and I don't rule that out. But the Dems are on their guard now after some bad experiences.
Polls not showing an advantage for House Democrats, though it's so close that it'll boil down to which side gets their voters out.http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/generic_congressional_vote-2170.html
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