Tuesday, August 11, 2015

China falls back on mercantism and devalues yuan overnight

China devalues the yuan by 1.9% overnight

Just when you thought that China was "getting the message" and starting to abandon its export-driven/mercantilist approach to running its economy this happens.

Oh well.

Overnight, China devalued the yuan by 1.9%. Looks like the Chinese are no longer afraid of U.S. trade sanctions, hehe. You may recall that back in 2005, Congress was seriously considering branding China a "currency manipulator." Such action would have brought mandatory tariffs.

No fear of that in this move.

What frustrates me about China is that every time you think got their shit together and gotten back on track--like the recent announcement of higher deficit spending for jobs and income gains--they go right back to the old ways. (Or new ways depending on how you  see it)

So now it's back to currency manipulation and mercantilism.

This is not a good development for the euro, nor for the Japanese yen. (Matt Franko, weigh in here.) Large exporters in both of these countries compete with the Chinese in many product areas and that means they might have to start cutting prices to match China's new currency-adjusted price structure.

By the way, this is another good line for Donald Trump, who has been harping on China and its trade policies and the fact that it keeps its currency weak. Let's see if his advisers even pick up on this move. So far I have nothing out of Trump. He's still going after Megyn Kelly (rightfully so, IMO).


23 comments:

Malmo's Ghost said...

Trump's been on China's case for years now, and very cogently too. CNBC's website had a snippet today where he criticized the move.

.....Can't believe I'm saying this but if I had to vote for President today I'd pull the lever for Trump with not a reservation.

Peter Pan said...

What trade sanctions?
Walmart is full of Chinese merchandise and Americans and Canadians seem to prefer it that way.

Tom Hickey said...

China versus EZ (Germany).

Great for US consumers.

Ignacio said...

If you want to fuck the West now, that's how you do it. I see absolutely no reason why China should not do this, specially when the ECB is the first merchantilist.

They don't lose anything, is not like they will stop growing, lose jobs and industries, raw materials will raise in price significantly, etc. Most growth will still come from internal demand anyway and the West will keep impoverishing itself over idiocy.

Tom Hickey said...

".....Can't believe I'm saying this but if I had to vote for President today I'd pull the lever for Trump with not a reservation."

The big problem with Trump is that he is an asshole — I mean, narcissist. Narcissists have superiority complexes, and superiority complexes generally have a shadow in inferiority complexes.

This makes for pathological leadership that can be dangerous when combined with power.

I don't think that Trump is psychologically qualified to be POTUS.

Malmo's Ghost said...

Oh I can see how Trump rubs too many people wrong. He probably won't be President, but he will be king maker, for sure.

On the other hand, people are sick and tired of the establishment politicians, who just reek of banality and insincerity. If Trump somehow secures the nomination and goes head to head with Hillary, then I think he has a damn good chance to win it all. And keep in mind, the whole Blue Wall myth has been obliterated by Nate Silver, so no matter who get's the GOP nod, the establishment hack, Hillary, is going to get her clock cleaned and good.

Joe said...

Trump's already on it.
http://www.rawstory.com/2015/08/presidential-candidate-trump-china-devaluation-will-devastate-u-s/

But he's still clueless, saying China used our money to build their economy. But he's right that China has sucked out a lot of US jobs (well I'd say it was US capitalists that pushed the jobs to China, rather than China sucking them)...

The way Trump just blurted out the truth about money in politics during the debate made me like him 1000% more than I did before (and then the candidates groveled at this feet begging for money). I would love to see Bernie vs Trump..

Or even a Bernie Trump ticket! Of course, they'd have to whip 'em out and see who had the bigger dick to determine who is president and who is vp, but what's not to love about a Bernie/Trump ticket?

Matt Franko said...

Trump has to maintain at least some credibility with the socio-economic justice cohort.... so far so good there....

Iow if he were to out and go off on "welfare queens" or do something like Romney did with that 47% bs imo Trump would be finished right there...

Mike has pointed out Trump has spoken supportavely about SS and the Meds so it seems like he gets this part of it at least so far...

I'd like to see hom get into a big fight with the Peterson morons..

Septeus7 said...


Quote from Tom Hickey: "I don't think that Trump is psychologically qualified to be POTUS."

Agree he isn't qualified for an empty suit position like POTUS. He is qualified to for American Monarch that is what America needs.

In terms of psychology neither is Shillery and Bernie has just proved he's a spineless classcuck willing to bowdown to any oligarch's Agent provocateurs who calls him a racist.

Yeah, Donald will be the American Putin but like Putin he will actually get shit done.

He's not a not neoliberal but classical American Hamiltonian protectionist from Wharton Business School. In politics, pedigree is destiny and Trump
s pedigree has a history of pissing off blue bloods and using their own scams and financial system against the Bankster to get himself rich.

Trump ego is the best thing about him and not a defect at all in terms of real politics.

Trump is pyschopathic Oligarch asshole but he's potentially "our" psychopathic asshole and like the alliance of the monarchs of old with peasants against the Barons the people stand to gain much from the egoist who is willing to stab other oligarchs in the back to for his own personal glory.

If the people play it right then Trump is the best shot Trump be willing be a American Putin and clean house. The time of freedom, liberalism, and democracy is over so get over it.

Authoritarian rule is the future so best option for Americans is the most Nationalist option and that is Trump.

The worst case with Trump get us balls to wall accelerationism in which case we still win. Everything with Trump is a win win. He is an engine of destruction he will destroy neoliberal capitalism because that system is too small to contain an ego's like Trump. All we have to do is point the loose cannon in the right direction. Trump is the only one with the ego and balls to say to American's ruling class "You're fired" and then send in security to remove them.

We are living under neofeudalism and only solution is neomonarchy.

Peter Pan said...

If Trump is all that you say he is, then his life is in danger.

Ignacio said...

Anyway, I don't get why all the anti-Chinese crap, why not attack the EU and/or the ECB? They (we) are the biggest surplus monetary region of the world and as 'beggar thy neighbour' as it gets.

Because we are 'allies'/vassals/white people?

Malmo's Ghost said...

Tom, give me a break. Trump isn't alone as a narcissist. Virtually every politician in DC fits the bill.

mike norman said...

Agree with everything said. Great stuff, guys! Love you all!!

Tom Hickey said...

MG, my problem with Trump is that he excels at his pathology. Agreed that one needs a pretty big ego to go into politics, as well as extremely tough skin. But this true of a whole lot of other jobs as well. It's not necessary to be a narcissist, which is a pathology while egotism is not. Moreover, egoism (self-interest) is the driving force of capitalism.

A problem with giving narcissists a lot of power is that they take things very personally and feel the need to either to withdraw from difficult environments (avoidance) or to become hostile (resistance). Trump seems to favor resistance as a preferred strategy, He is very good at exaggerating his own ability and attacking others. That doesn't bode well for foreign relations and foreign policy, where he could prove to be a loose cannon — although it might be good for browbeating domestically, e.g., getting his way with Congress. On the other hand, Trump is a self-described wheeler and dealer, and that opens the door to a lot of crony capitalism in spite of his dissing of it — while admitting he gives to everyone to ensure access.

Random said...

http://changingminds.org/explanations/personality/disorders/narcissistic_personality.htm
"Noticeable symptoms may include:

Excessive self-importance.
Preoccupied with fantasies of power, success, beauty, intelligence, love.
Focus on self, with little empathy for others.
Behaving in an arrogant and entitled matter.
Manipulating others to achieve own ends.
Seeking constant admiration, praise and approval.
Envious of others and thinks others are envious.
One-sided relationships (it's all about them and their needs).
Harsh punishment of those who criticize or do not help.
Exaggeration of achievements and abilities."
The other thing is, when will the next US recession be? I can see it happening under Trump.
The good thing about The Donald is he has his own wealth meaning he is (less) influenced by the Koch Brothers and their types. I can see him doing something ballsy like minting the platinum coin. Has anyone asked him about this?

Matt Franko said...

Tom im not sure a heavy narcissist would be caught dead in those white foam rubber "Lets Make America Great Again " hats and the white New Balance senior citizen's walking shoes they sell at COSTCO. ..

Ignacio said...

The way the current political structure exists in Washington the president would have to seize power and do a coup d'etat to carry forward any deep reform of the system. Otherwise 'the republic' machinery will trump any decision and prevent any policy. No one for example will be able to challenge the medical-pharma-washington complex as a lot of entitlements (for the crocks and wealthy) depend on it.

I'm not sure if Trump would be able to do that, or anybody really, without a strong narrative to sell to the Americans (make america great again... could work) and the american people backing him. Hamilton wanted to emulate 'the crown' and make the president an elected monarch, but now the power of the monarch is greatly diminished through the political machine who can hold hostage the whole nation if necessary. A big chunk of the population is neoliberal and supports neo-feudalism and the crushing of others by economic or physical violence, the current zeitgest does seem to support 'the republic' (corrupt oligarchy) more than 'the empire' (a monarch/Caesar with unlimited power).

There is a big part of the population who is ready to support a Caesar, but probably not enough, as 'freedumb' and 'democracy' are still the mainstream story.

Joe said...

BAHAHAHA!!!, only Tom Hickey would dismiss Trump for being a narcissist, meanwhile support and make excuses for the biggest narcissist who's ever walked the earth... OBAMA!!!
you cant make this up!

Tom Hickey said...

Joe, you haven't been following this blog if you under the mistaken illusion that I am an Obama fanboy. To say that I have been critical of Obummer is an understatement.

In fact, during the 2008 campaign I said that if McCain were elected it would be a catastrophe, whereas if Obama were elected ti would only be a disaster. It began immediately with the appointments of Rahm Emmanuel, Larry Summers, Tim Geithner, and then Hillary, not to mention giving the perpetrators of torture a pass even though those at the top publicly admitted it. And as a constitutional lawyer, O gets a fail, too. Let me count the ways.

But at least this president has had the sense to make peace with Iran instead of attacking it. If McCain had won the US would be heavily embroiled in the Middle East, at least, and possibly at war with Russia.

Obama has been dangerous in a much subtler way, but probably of more consequence in setting future US policy.

Tom Hickey said...

Oh, and I would not count narcissism as Obama's major flaw. Again during the 2008 campaign I named it as "snake in the grass."

Tom Hickey said...

"The way the current political structure exists in Washington the president would have to seize power and do a coup d'etat to carry forward any deep reform of the system. Otherwise 'the republic' machinery will trump any decision and prevent any policy. No one for example will be able to challenge the medical-pharma-washington complex as a lot of entitlements (for the crocks and wealthy) depend on it."

A deeper problem that resists change is the military-industrial-deep state complex that drives US foreign and military policy, and which President Eisenhower had warned about. This is the Achilles heel of the US, and no person or party is powerful enough to confront it.

Malmo's Ghost said...

Tom,

Hillary Clinton is far worse as a human being than is Trump. Camille Paglia does a good job of exposing that wretched lady too.

Tom Hickey said...

Hillary Clinton is far worse as a human being than is Trump. Camille Paglia does a good job of exposing that wretched lady too.

Well, I've already said that I can't in good conscience vote for HRC. It's voting for war.