Monday, June 13, 2016

Alexander Mercouris — Modi in Washington: Why India Will Not Become a US Ally


Reflects my thoughts on hearing that India was supposedly pivoting toward Washington and away from Russia and BRICS. That was more wishful thinking. India continues to fun a balancing act tilted toward those it can count on, and that's not the US. India's future does not lie with the West, especially as a vassal of Washington. Not gonna happen.
Indian Prime Minister Modi’s just completed visit to Washington has reinforced fears that India is evolving into a full-fledged ally of the US.
The grounds for thinking this were ably discussed by my colleague Andrew Korybko in two fine pieces he has written for The Duran. For those interested in the details of the moves the US and India have been making towards each other, there is no better place to start than those two articles (here and here).
Is India however really abandoning its traditional policy of non-alignment to forge an alliance with Washington that would in effect bury the BRICS arrangement?
I have no doubt that that is what Washington itself believes. I am sure that in the aftermath of Prime Minister Modi’s visit, Washington’s huge foreign policy establishment is busy congratulating itself on its success in detaching India from Russia and China.
The champagne corks in Langley and Foggy Bottom are no doubt flying as I write this, and I have no doubt that Andrew Korybko has reproduced with absolute accuracy the way the whole India play is looked upon by people inside the Beltway.
However I suspect that from New Delhi things look rather different. I am quite sure that both the hopes and fears of an Indian alliance with the US are exaggerated.
Before discussing my reasons for saying this, it is necessary to provide some background.
The Duran
Modi in Washington: Why India Will Not Become a US Ally
Alexander Mercouris

11 comments:

John said...

The US has rolled back a substantial part of the pink tide in South America. If the US can bring India on side it'll be a major boost to the empire. India's playing its cards close to its chest. If India has any sense it'll play the US against China for a good number of years before making its longterm choice, which will probably be China. All the US offers is a lukewarm anti-Pakistan alliance. The choice will be made easier without Hindu nationalists in power. Many of the Hindu nationalists are bonkers and are obsessed with Pakistan, just as much as Pakistan's Islamic fanatics are obsessed with India. No doubt the US is playing on these antagonisms.

Bob said...

How valuable is Pakistan to the US?

Pak *cough* sold down the river *cough* istan.

John said...

The US aim is a breakup of China and Russia, with jihadis doing the same business that they did during the eighties in Afghanistan. So Pakistan will again be useful. India understands this and is playing the US for all it can get. The demented Hindu nationalists may judge that religion is more important than longterm security and growth with a China-led bloc.

Tom Hickey said...

How valuable is Pakistan to the US?

The US really really doesn’t want Pakistan allying with China, which is a no brainer if the US breaks up with its old ally.

A Chinese-Pakistani alliance is India's worst nightmare.

This is a very dicey game geopolitically that will influence the rest of the century, at least.

John said...

As Tom points out, it's a tough balancing act. Keeping India and Pakistan at each other's throats at the same time as keeping them in the US corner and out of the Chinese corner. Empires are hard to manage.

Ryan Harris said...

China and India don't like to play cold-war re-enactments apparently. Sometimes reading the Russian point of view, the outlooks seems a bit paranoid maybe, if it is even possible for an entire country to have a giant paranoid hysteria, I don't know. I've seen central american leftist leaders that saw fewer US plots to destroy the world than Russians.

Tom Hickey said...

When you have NATO and the Seventh Fleet (Russia is also a Pacific power) breathing down your neck, I don't know whether than is paranoia.

Bob said...

As Tom points out, it's a tough balancing act. Keeping India and Pakistan at each other's throats at the same time as keeping them in the US corner and out of the Chinese corner. Empires are hard to manage.

How about a US invasion of Pakistan? Win-win ;)

John said...

Bob, apparently there are contingency plans for the US invading Pakistan's nuclear sites and ensuring that the nukes are made "safe". One of the problems is apparently that Pakistan have hidden many away from the sites they're meant to be at, thus forestalling any US action. The major problem is that unless there is a permanent US occupation, Pakistan has the knowledge to recreate the nukes in no time at all. And of course, an occupation of Pakistan would make Iraq look like a picnic.

It's not just lose-lose, it's disaster-disaster. But that't what happens when you help an Islamic fundamentalist like General Zia ul-Haq overthrow Pakistan's democratically elected government, aided his nuclear weapons programme and then create a jihadi army to fight the Soviets.

Tom Hickey said...

How about a US invasion of Pakistan? Win-win ;)

Right. Pakistan, like NK, has nukes. That changes the picture. This is the reason that US doesn't want Iran to get them. The rest of the talk is just BS to that end.

Bob said...

I know, I'll ask Hillary. Maybe nukes don't deter her.