Tuesday, June 7, 2016

Sputnik — NATO has begun its Anaconda-16 war game, calling for the largest assembly of foreign forces in Poland since World War II.

On Monday, NATO launched its largest war game in decades, near the Russian border, as part of what analysts call the "summer of provocation," a bid to reignite the Cold War intended to force Moscow to starve its domestic economy to ramp up its military to meet a growing external threat.
The war game, titled Anaconda-16, will take place in Poland ahead of next month’s NATO summit in Warsaw, where officials are expected to approve permanent troops to be stationed in the country and throughout eastern Europe, to combat what they consistently refer to 'Russian aggression.'
The irony is that the West is also starving domestic economies to pressure Russia and China into escalating their production of guns over butter. Lose-lose scenario. Will Westerners be dumb enough or cowed enough to put up with it. What is quite predictable is that it will stiffen Russian spines and increase their resolve to resist. Westerners are a lot softer than Russians and less likely to put up with inconvenience, let alone lower living standards to meet manufactured threats. Will there be a boomerang effect.

And anyone wondering about whether NATO strategy involves surrounding Russia, the code name "Anaconda" dispels that.

Sputnik
NATO has begun its Anaconda-16 war game, calling for the largest assembly of foreign forces in Poland since World War II.

22 comments:

Andrew Anderson said...

" a bid to reignite the Cold War intended to force Moscow to starve its domestic economy to ramp up its military to meet a growing external threat.
Tom Hickey

Could easily backfire since the problem with the Soviet Union was not the public sector so much as the lack of a private sector.

Now Russia, like the US, has both.

Michael Norman said...

Sad, though, that Putin does not see that Russia has the means to meet the military challenges of the West without starving his own economy. I feel bad for the Russian people. Should get rid of Nabiullina, the Finance Minister and the remaining oligarchs.

MRW said...

“Sad, though, that Putin does not see that Russia has the means to meet the military challenges of the West without starving his own economy.”

Not true. Read this, A Russian warning.
http://thesaker.is/a-russian-warning/

To understand the significance of this missive, listen to the opening 5 minutes of Stephen Cohen’s weekly broadcast with John Batchelor on WABCNY-AM last night.In fact, listen to these five minutes first.
https://audioboom.com/boos/4667614-anakonda-16-on-the-russian-frontier-stephen-f-cohen-nyu-princeton-eastwestaccord-com

The situation is far more dicey than a mere economic condition. You don’t know or understand what has been happening this past week. Obama and the neocons who control him have brought us to the brink of war. And Americans know nothing about it.

Cohen speaks, reads, and writes Russian.

MRW said...

And listen for more explanation of the Russian warning petition at 29:52 minutes. Cohen explains who the three are.

Tom Hickey said...

I don't think that either Russia or China seriously believes that the US and its vassals (NATO and Asian allies) is seriously contemplating overt hostilities in the near future, but it would be remiss of them not to prepare for it. They both understand the the US is incapable of invading either Russia or China and certainly not both, and it would have a very difficult dragging its allies along on such a venture, too.

This is about maintaining and extending US global power and influence, feeding the military-industrial complex, and unbalancing the Russian and Chinese economies by forcing them to commit to guns over butter when they are trying to develop domestically.

This imperial project is being run the under the guise spreading freedom and making the world safe for democracy.

It is a completely cynical enterprise.

It is also dangerous. "What could possibly go wrong?"

Accidents are always possible and that bodes ill when weapons are locked and loaded, especially nuclear.

There is also the danger of the US being put in a position where it must either put up or shut up, and that's when things can get crazy, too.

Then there are the wild cards, like the assassination of Archduke Ferdinand and his wife Sophie in Sarajevo in 1914, which was a catalyst for WWI. The logs were in laid, the tinder in place and all it took was a spark to start the bonfire. We are very possibly not far from that kind of situation now.

But overall, I think that the US thinks that it can conquer Russia and China peacefully through regime change, and the leadership knows that this would be a whole lot less expensive than war, which could destroy the world as we know it. But Russia and China know this, too. They will be on guard against US subversion in the name of "freedom and democracy."

MRW said...

a bid to reignite the Cold War intended to force Moscow to starve its domestic economy to ramp up its military to meet a growing external threat.

Then “the analysts” are naive, and talking out their ass. They don’t know what they are talking about. 'Ramp up its military' to meet whatever? The Russians started “ramping up its military” 10 years ago.

Read this what just happened last Sunday. Not a word in our press.
Obama Slams Door in Putin’s Face: Says if Putin doesn’t want Russia’s retaliatory forces eliminated, he’ll need to be the one to press the nuclear button first
http://thesaker.is/obama-slams-door-in-putins-face-says-if-putin-doesnt-want-russias-retaliatory-forces-eliminated-hell-need-to-be-the-one-to-press-the-nuclear-button-first/

Tom Hickey said...

@MRW

The Russian military knows this. They don't think that the US has the capability at this time although it is putting place. In the meantime Russia is reading to counter it both defensively (S500 and EW) as well as offensively with a cult-pronge first strike capability that would hit CONUS in addition to Europe.

Real war is mostly logistical. With satellite surveillance, both side have a pretty good idea of what's up and surprise is difficult.

Real problems arise when one or both sides have first strike capability. The US has been developing a doctrine of preemptive war and first strike capability for some time. Russia is responding. China, too. China is the only one that has a no first-strike doctrine in place now, but the fact that it is developing a first strike capability signals that this doctrine may not last.

Needless to say, this is insanity and the US started it. Now others have to meet the challenge or roll over. It's actually worse than mafia tactics since maifiosi are not insane.

Who is leading the pack? Hillary.

Tom Hickey said...

Should be MULTI-prong.

MRW said...

"as well as offensively with a cult-pronge first strike capability that would hit CONUS in addition to Europe.”

Not a chance. Did you read The Saker piece? Did you listen to the Cohen interview? Now, their missiles do do have a first strike capability; they have the ability to hit CONUS in addition to Europe. But there isn’t a chance Russia will hit first, no matter what the provocation. But they will retaliate. That’s what both Saker and Cohen were saying. Russia will not start a war.Hasn’t done it in over 400 years that I know of. Why would they start now?

Russians have known war on their land. It was the most terrible war in all of human history. That’s why May 9th is so important to them, when millions walk the streets carrying photos of those they lost, including Putin. There are no barbecues and beer. It is a day of national mourning, of remembering.

Needless to say, this is insanity and the US started it. Now others have to meet the challenge or roll over. It's actually worse than mafia tactics since maifiosi are not insane.

Who is leading the pack? Hillary.


So fucking true.

Ryan Harris said...

Russia has half the population of the US and 1/10 the GDP. Because of European and Chinese mercantilism policies along with Dutch disease their domestic consumer and industrial production capabilities remain under developed and they know they are deficient there. Regulatory policy that is even less predictable than western democracies, which makes it very difficult for private sector industries to grow. Anecdotally there are more accounts of industry where as soon as they become successful, they become a threat to the conservative minded culture and they are accused of being a fifth column of liberalism then shuttered for spurious reasons. Military industrial is probably the most capable industry in Russia because Russians don't seem to grow suspicious of their MIC.

Bob said...

The cold war is on, thanks to European acquiescence , and this is just the latest show.

Nothing to see here, folks. Now move along...

Bob said...

What Tom mentioned in an earlier post, about the EU being replaced by nationalist governments who will then cut their own trade deals with Russia, is our best hope for limiting this madness.

Tom Hickey said...

Did you read The Saker piece? Did you listen to the Cohen interview? Now, their missiles do do have a first strike capability; they have the ability to hit CONUS in addition to Europe.

First strike capability is not only the ability to launch ICBM's. That's part of MAD (mutually assured destruction).

Fist strike capability is not only the ability to hit the other side but also the ability to counter incoming in the quantity the enemy can respond with.

It's very difficult to know whether one side of the other actually does have this protected first strike capability until after launch. It is a gamble that the other side cannot respond because of both surprise and the inability to counter all response effectively with counter-systems. It only takes one thermonuclear to get through to make an attack very expensive for the one launching it. For example, the Russians have let it be known that it is possible to detonate a thermonuclear divide over the super-volcano at Yellowstone to activate the volcano and cover North America with ash. The US has to be very sure it can deal with that. And that is just one of similar tactics. And do the Russians have others they are not announcing?

As far as I can tell, no one thinks that either side has this type of protected first strike capability yet, but the US is hard at work on developing and deploying one. It has to cover a lot of ground from air, in-ground, rail transport, surface ship, to submarine launched. The number is also key because swarming is part of the strategy. Needless to say, Russia and China are not sitting on their butts watching like Saddam did with the US buildup of forces in Kuwait.

So a preemptive first strike is very difficult to pull off in a way that one can be sure to escape the response. In addition, the US would probably need to use tightly targeted precision conventional weapons to prevent nuclear contamination of Europe, too. In fact, that is the plan. That's a lot of tightly targeted strike, along with taking out the subs simultaneously before they can launch.

I don't see this a a real possibility at this point. But Russia and China have to commit to addressing it and that will mean committing real resources to guns rather than butter. So far the US can do both guns and butter. Europe really can't afford it though under the present monetary system. So trying to get them to pay for a ramp up there will have adverse affects and likely boomerang against the US.

The thinking seems to be that this is a resumption of the Cold War rather than the imminent preclude to an intentional hot war.

I see the danger as accident or overreach, which the US is prone to doing. The US just doesn't seem to care about red lines. Russia and China do. That could result in response and spiraling escalation that no one actually wants. The US is still paying the price for this in Afghanistan and Iraq, and also Libya it seems.

Tom Hickey said...

What Tom mentioned in an earlier post, about the EU being replaced by nationalist governments who will then cut their own trade deals with Russia, is our best hope for limiting this madness.

I don't think that it will take nationalist victories to start this. Several European countries are sending signals that they are getting fed up with bearing the costs. German firms are also concerned about losing momentum to China in the Russia of the future. They view this as just plain stupid.

Andrew Anderson said...

And that is just one of similar tactics. Tom Hickey

Another is to detonate 100+ megaton nukes off our coasts and swamp NYC, Boston, DC, LA, etc. Maybe they are already pre-positioned?

Of course God can prevent all this if we'll repent. We might start with ceasing to systematically oppress the poor. Of course we have to first admit that the present money system does so but getting people to admit that is more tedious than pulling impacted wisdom teeth. I'm getting tired of trying and would stop except the next generation seems much more worthy than mine.

Auburn Parks said...

Dear Andrew

Please for the love of life, do stop here at MNE. There's nothing more obnoxious then reading the same stupid and ignorant comments about commercial banking over and over and over and over and over and over. Nobody here is buying your "banks are evil" schtick so please give it a rest.
Oh and if you think there is some personal god based on ridiculous human religions then not only are you annoying and ignorant about banking you are a fucking moron with no credibility

Random said...

"Of course God can prevent all this if we'll repent."

No.

Bob said...

Jesus is supposed to return with an army to layeth the smackdown.

Andrew Anderson said...

Dear AP,

I've never said banks were evil but only that government-subsidies for banks were. Pay attention, please. Or learn to not lie.

Or are you saying that banks cannot exist without government subsidies? Then why should they?

As for God, the question is can He believe in you? But if you don't believe in justice and not oppressing the poor then why should He?

Andrew Anderson said...

the same stupid and ignorant comments about commercial banking AP

Such as?

Put up or shut up, please.

Auburn Parks said...

Oh I dont know andrew, maybe an example would be every comment about banking you've ever made. Deposit insurance isnt some grand giveaway to banks, its a guarantee for depositors. Its exactly the opposite of the bulllshit you repeat over and over and over again. Please stop.

Andrew Anderson said...

Deposit insurance isnt some grand giveaway to banks, its a guarantee for depositors. AP

Accounts at the central bank are inherently risk-free so what need for government-provided deposit insurance if every citizen could have accounts at their respective central bank?

But citizens CAN'T have accounts at the central bank so government-provided deposit insurance IS a giveaway to the banks disguised as a benefit for depositors.

I won't stop until I'm dead or someone can seriously refute me and so far no one can. So if I'm speaking the truth should I dare quit?