Why so many people think COVID-19 is no worse than flu, and why doctors are worried.
Comparing seasonal influenza (flu) mortality to the mortality rate of coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) is a threat to public health and demonstrates the lack of understanding about how the data is collected for each infection by varying agencies, according to a Viewpoint
Authors from Brigham and Women’s Hospital and Emory University School of Medicine outlined why the apparent equivalence of deaths from COVID-19 and seasonal influenza are not capturing the entirety of the situation.
They said that public officials continually draw comparisons between the 2 infections, “often in an attempt to minimize the effects of the unfolding pandemic.”
Contagion Live
Rachel Lutz - Why Comparing Flu and COVID-19 Severity Is Not Equivalent
29 comments:
"Why so many people think COVID-19 is no worse than flu, and why doctors are worried."
Indeed it's not. Actually, it's a perversity to compare the two viruses. Why? Think about it and you'll eventually see why. Hell, even a nobody like me can see why.
Excellent and timely thread, K. Hope NeilW reads it. I like him and follow his youtube channel on economic/financial matters.
Yeah, every expert to his own field. People here are rejecting the science.
I have spent hours arguing with the deniers on twitter. But they are like cartoon characters, flatten them down and they just peel themselves off the floor again and then the next day they are arguing the same old points with someone else, points I had completely demolished the day before. That's when I gave up debating with climate change deniers.
With the Covid-19 conspiracists i just debate for a short period. I've learnt my lesson.
We have the flu shots but we don’t have a covid shot yet... so flu deaths are going to be reduced...
Agree that we shouldn't compare this virus with viruses that kill people in the prime of life.
https://twitter.com/wesbury/status/1291006485120548865?s=21
Deaths per 1 million population (8/5/20), Worldometers.
NJ - 1,793
NY - 1,686
MA - 1,256
CT - 1,245
United Kingdom - 677
Spain - 608
Sweden - 564
USA - 461
FL - 345
TX - 264
https://twitter.com/dbongino/status/1291022203467726851?s=21
Study: Tuberculosis Will Kill Additional 1.4 Million This Year Due to Global Lockdowns
Well Matt it does seem flu deaths will be less because a side effect of hand wshing and social distancing is that flu has less chance of transmitting.
TB is irrelevant as there is a vaccine for it, I remember the BVG well because the older kids scared you about having it as it was mandatory. Rich countries vaccinated and still do in some cases but don't bother for the bulk of the population you miss the point of why TB is still a problem in poorer countries.
That's BCG not BVG.
"TB is irrelevant as there is a vaccine for it, "
The vaccine doesn't work against the strain of TB that comes in from Pakistan. It is resistant to the vaccine and to anti-biotics. TB is a very relevant disease and increasingly so. Particularly in certain areas of the country.
" People here are rejecting the science."
There is no science. What there is a lot of opinions and hypothesis, few of which have been rejected by experiment. And quite a lot of people trying to be data scientists who don't have the qualifications of the experience to do so.
It's time to stop quoting The Science as though it is a new religion handed down from Mt Sinai, and start doing what science actually requires us to do - question the hypothesis and force an explanation from the data.
What matters overall is excess deaths - since that is one thing that cannot be hidden very easily in most decent jurisdications. The shape of a flu curve and the shape of a covid curve are different - as they would be different for an outbreak of measles. But the area under the graphs is what matters. How many does it kill overall more than you are expecting to die, and how many does it injure.
The facts remain that the median age of deaths from Covid are over 80, and the chance of being injured by Covid for those under 25 is 5 times less than influenza. That is what the data is telling you - if you are wise enough to be able to read it yourself - rather than having it interpreted for you by your New Priesthood.
Thankfully there are still sensible outlets that can structure the data in a manner that provides information, not propaganda. I'm quite fond of the CEBM https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/ons-registered-deaths-in-england-and-wales-week-ending-27th-july/
Rather than pushing the narrative of Very Clever People, how about some actual science.
Increasing Vitamin D levels from 20ng/ml to 50ng/ml appears to provide a high level of very cheap protection against the impact of the virus.
(But no higher than that or you end up with high calcium in the blood which is very damaging).
In other words what we all really need is exposure in the sun every day without sunscreen. Not being locked in our houses.
https://borsche.de/res/Vitamin_D_Essentials_EN.pdf
The trouble is that there is no money in Vitamin D. You get it by standing outside and warming your face.
A very mild suggestion on similar lines from The Lancet https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(20)30268-0/fulltext
The same old conspiracist lines. Vitamins D is being recommended by many British councils for Covid-19, but recent government research showed no benefits. They have been asked to reconsider it.
Health experts say the ‘sunshine nutrient’ could help Scots prepare for a second wave of the virus
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/why-vitamin-d-holds-covid-key-in-scotland-322vn0rm8
Experts criticise government review of Vitamin D for COVID-19
https://www.nutraingredients.com/Article/2020/07/02/Experts-criticise-government-review-of-Vitamin-D-for-COVID-19#.XyukRXJ018w.twitter
Vitamin D hadn't been ignored.
Coronavirus: Should I start taking vitamin D?
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-52371688
But many British councils are still recommended it despite the British government research.
Evidence does not support taking vitamin D for Covid-19, say health officials
https://www.lancashiretelegraph.co.uk/news/national/18549131.evidence-not-support-taking-vitamin-d-covid-19-say-health-officials/?ref=twtrec
The Lancet. It's worth trying, they say.
Vitamin D for COVID-19: a case to answer?
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/landia/article/PIIS2213-8587(20)30268-0/fulltext
Andy my point is there are trade offs that are not taken into account by the covid policy response..
Same errors as the bank regulators, banks have a regulatory ratio of capital/total assets they have to maintain, regulators provide reserves to lend out as part of monetary policy, so regulators think they are helping banks by adding reserves but it causes the regulatory ratio to fall below threshold and the banks are all made insolvent...
There is no proper coordination between the 2 policies...
So now you have covid and they shut everything down and it creates all sorts of health problems for those without covid...
They don’t coordinate...
“ First, patients tend to present to hospital in the hyperinflammatory stage of the disease, so it might be too late for them to benefit from any antiviral effects induced by vitamin D supplementation.”
Seems like same for HCQ... gotta take it prophylactically...
“ It's time to stop quoting The Science as though it is a new religion handed down from Mt Sinai, ”
All the religious leaders are platonist trained... so you will see the people Platonist trained in some other disciplines operate the same way as you see religion operating...
To your point science is the METHOD not the discipline...
They have no training in applying the science method they have training applying the Platonist method... so that is ofc what they do...
Start with Theory first, like they know it all, find someone with an anti theory like they think they know it all too , enter into a dialogue with them back and forth back and forth.. eventually synthesize the thesis and the anti thesis ito create a new combinatory thesis ... then find somebody with an anti thesis, dialogue with them now.. ... and on and on...
Doesn’t work .... you have to Shit can that whole method...
You can’t do something you are not trained to do...
If you’ve never even picked up a golf club go pick one up for the first time and try to hit a golf ball it’s just lying there on the ground... seems simple ... but it is not...
Then watch 50 golf instruction videos per day for a few months and go try it again... same thing..
Then practice hitting 50 golf balls per day every day for a few months and see the difference...
You have to physically train to be able to do something..
Those Worldometers numbers as presented are heavily questionable since countries tend to count deaths differently. One should look at the rising number of deaths compared to normal times.
That way you get a better picture of if a country reports for instance deaths at home with no contact with health authorities and which may not be counted due to COVID-19.
Some countries have lower COVID death numbers than others but strangely higher average death rate than normal times removing the COVID death numbers.
“ but strangely higher average death rate than normal times removing the COVID death numbers.”
It’s a result of the policy response.... it’s ALWAYS the policy... libertarians don’t want to hear that but I hate to break the news to them ...
FrankoAugust 6, 2020 at 6:56 AM
If you’ve never even picked up a golf club go pick one up for the first time and try to hit a golf ball it’s just lying there on the ground... seems simple ... but it is not...
Many people are quite good at the physical act of hitting a golf ball the first time. Depends on what other sports you have played
Golf takes waaaay more than physical training. Mental training way more important to be able to score well
A lot of people hit good shots on driving range
S,
The net population growth this year is nearing 50 million... and we're in August. This virus is not an existential threat to humans.
Why can't the same hysteria be generated over climate change, or biosphere collapse?
"The same old conspiracist lines. Vitamins D is being recommended by many British councils for Covid-19, but recent government research showed no benefits"
Yet it didn't did it. Nowhere in that paper did it deal with Vit D levels above 30ng/L. Why not - since that is the proposition?
If it does no good then you can simply show Vit D levels above that level and the amount of Covid death is equivalent to the ones below it.
Yet there is none of that anywhere. Hence the very tentative Lancet article this week asking the Great and the Good if they might possibly consider whether something very simple, pretty safe and very cheap might not be worth doing since it may save lives.
Much like masks...
@Neilw
"The vaccine doesn't work against the strain of TB that comes in from Pakistan. It is resistant to the vaccine and to anti-biotics. TB is a very relevant disease and ride so. Particularly in certain areas of the country."
This is wrong, for a start TB has decreased in the UK since 2011. What you are suggesting is very debatable because I said irrelevant to the covid19 issue. I didn't say vaccines are 100% effective, with BCG it varies from around 15 to 80% protection. If you want figures of people of Pakistan origin (which for others is what Neil meant) it has 0% protection in Pakistan but in the UK people of Pakistan origin it's 65% so it isn't about strain it has other reasons that they admit they don't quite understand (looks obvious to me really, poverty plays a large part) and age,the BCG vaccine is much less effective in adults...it's why they vaccinated us at 13.
Even for the strains that are more resilient against the vaccine & anti biotics the outcomes are mostly better. Something we don't have with Covid19
It isn't to say that I don't have some sympathies with what you are saying. The local isolation hospital had outdoor space specifically for patients to get out and get sunshine. It was also deliberately draughty which now is looked down upon but I reckon our ancestors had it right,
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