Friday, June 3, 2016

MMT Trader absolutely nailed the job report today. Subscribers making money hand over fist.

In my MMT Trader report I pay close attention and track all the Federal government spending flows off of the Daily Treasury Statement. Charts, graphs, analysis...the whole nine yards. Nobody does this. Believe me, NOBODY.

Anyway, here was the headline of this week's report, which went out on Monday:



Inside the report I wrote the following:
The news is good, but I would be remiss if I didn’t tell you that I have concerns. 
The numbers make me wonder whether or not there is actually something going on with the labor market that has not become obvious yet in the general economic data, but is certain to show up at some point. Could that “point” be this Friday when we get the May jobs report? Forecasts are calling for a modest gain in nonfarm payrolls of 155k and a 4.9% (unchanged) unemployment rate. We could come in on the low side given the data that I am now seeing.
And what happened? We got this very weak nonfarm payroll report today. In addition, I predicted a rally in Treasuries, a selloff in the dollar and mixed reaction in stocks. EXACTLY what we are seeing today.

I am getting emails today from subscribers that go like this:

"Thanks Mike. I just made 100 pips on my Euro position."

And this...

"You nailed it. Man, you are good!"

The MMT trader is the only report of its kind. My analysis of fiscal flows gets to the core of what drives the economy and the markets. And my applied MMT gets you positioned the right way.

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 MMT Trader


George Bush: Money Trumps Peace

This might be a bit old but I have not seen it before. Here George Bush says that sometimes financial considerations trump peace. Now is that the same as saying that being a terrorist, or a bandit, also trumps peace.  In fact, does peace stand for anything if money considerations are a priority. I like to say to the libertarians, who believe that the free market is best for everything, that as war is one of the most profitable enterprises going, then god help  us?  And do financial considerations trump democracy, it seems so, but that is fascism.

I’ve not seen this clip before but imagine if Putin had said this, especially after bombing Georgia, it would have been on every news program over and over again. And what if the Chinese government had said the same thing?

I used to think that Bush was a psychopath,  and he's probably is not far off one, but psychopaths can lie continuously without duress. It looks like Bush here just could not keep up the lying and something gave way.

The Time George Bush Accidentally Told The Truth



This next clip is old too, but I thought it would fit in well here. George Bush is being interviewed about Iraq and he talks about getting Al Qaida, but the journalist tells that there were no Al Qaida in Iraq until the US went in. Then Bush just says, 'so what!' So what! Cenk Uygur lays right into him for that.

Bush On Iraq & Al Qaida - "So What" 



Thursday, June 2, 2016

Gary Brumback — America’s Corpocracy: Conspiracy Theory or Conspiracy Reality?

I was prompted to write this article when a twitter contact of mine wondered whether some of my writings about the corpocracy amounted to a conspiracy theory. Having been a behavioral scientist most of my adult life I know a thing or two about what’s theory and what’s not. I don’t know how anyone, scientist or lay person, could mistake the corpocracy for a theory. I doubt if any readers of articles published in the alternative news media would confuse the two. Nevertheless, I want to tell you what I have learned over the years.
Dissident Voice
America’s Corpocracy: Conspiracy Theory or Conspiracy Reality?
Gary Brumback, doctorate in organizational psychology, retired in 1995 from a career of private research and government consulting and policy development

Jason Smith — Economics is wrong, therefore (by analogy) physics is wrong


Jason Smith absolutely eviscerates Megan McArdle.

Information Transfer Economics
Economics is wrong, therefore (by analogy) physics is wrong
Jason Smith

James Carden — Trump, Trade and War

Neoliberal dogma holds that “free trade” brings peace and thus Donald Trump’s criticism of trade deals presages war. But that view is not only bad history but ignores valid points that Trump raises, says James W. Carden….
Consortium News
Trump, Trade and War
James Carden

Robert Parry — The Bigger Nuclear Risk: Trump or Clinton?

If the U.S. election comes down to Hillary Clinton v. Donald Trump, the American people will have to decide between two candidates who could risk the future of the planet, albeit for very different reasons, writes Robert Parry.…
 Hillary Clinton made a strong case for why handing the nuclear codes over to a President Donald Trump would be a scary idea, but there may be equal or even greater reason to fear turning them over to her. In perhaps the most likely area where nuclear war could break out – along Russia’s borders – Clinton comes across as the more belligerent of the two…. 
In short, there is reason to fear the election of either of these candidates, one because of his unpredictability and the other because of her rigidity. How, one might wonder, did the two major political parties reach this juncture, putting two arguably unfit personalities within reach of the nuclear codes?
I would not blame the political parties. After all, candidates go through a primary process that vets them with the voting public prior to the election. This is in the lap of the American people and plays to the claim of conservatives that "the people" are not only not qualified to rule, but also not qualified to participate so strongly in the candidate selection process as to give the public a definitive say in the outcome.

Consortium News
The Bigger Nuclear Risk: Trump or Clinton?
Robert Parry

digby — He's so smart he doesn't need to know anything


Calling out Trump.

Hullabaloo
He's so smart he doesn't need to know anything
digby



Yves Smith — Why Some of the Smartest Progressives I Know Will Vote for Trump over Hillary


Misses the most important reason not to vote for Hillary no matter what. She is a neocon hawk who will take the world to war.

The red lines and battle lines are being drawn and armaments moved into place. Intervention and provocation are the order of the day. 

In addition, the global situation is becoming increasing unstable socially, politically and economically even in the richest and most developed countries and regions.

Theses are extraordinary times in which it is insane to vote for a hawk like Hillary. We talking existential threat.

POLITICO
Why Some of the Smartest Progressives I Know Will Vote for Trump over Hillary
Yves Smith

John Helmer — The Quality Of European Union Justice – How To Dismiss Rosneft’s Challenge To The Legality Of Sanctions


Further mockery of the traditional liberal concept of justice and the rule of law by the eurocrats — justifying economic warfare on a specious legal basis.

I just got this very nice testimonial

Just got this from another satisfied student and subscriber to my MMT Trader report.

"Mike, you are selling your MMT Trader report (a treasure) too cheap. I feel like I am ripping you off.  Plus the Forex course...OMG...it's the best money I ever spent on courses."

Cool.

The stupidest observation..."There's too much uncertainty."

Tim Wallace — Core of banking could be destroyed by blockchain, says Barclays’ former boss

New technology such as artificial intelligence and blockchain will utterly shake up the fundamental principles of banking, challenging the entire industry according to former Barclays chief Antony Jenkins.
He believes the innovation in finance could eliminate the need for maturity transformation – the process by which short-term deposits, such as current accounts and instant access savings, fund long-term loans including mortgages.
That is a fundamental principle of the industry as banks can offer a low interest rate to savers while charging more to borrowers, profiting from the gap between the two rates. Yet in 10 to 20 years’ time, he believes the need for banks to perform the function might no longer exist – already some investors are sidestepping banks by using websites to match borrowers and savers directly.…
The Telegraph
Core of banking could be destroyed by blockchain, says Barclays’ former boss
Tim Wallace

George Friedman — In EU and US, nationalism is rising, not fascism


George Friedman argues that nationalist leaders and movements in Europe and the US are not fascistic but nationalistic (and some are xenophobic, although Friedman does not mention this). I think this is correct. "Fascism" is being used as a convenient club against political opponents owing to superficial similarities, just as socialists and even social democrats are often tarred with being "communists."
Nationalism is the core of the Enlightenment’s notion of liberal democracy. It asserts that the multinational dynasties that ruled autocratically denied basic human rights. Among these was the right to national self-determination and the right of citizens to decide what was in the national interest. The Enlightenment feared tyranny and saw the multinational empires dominating Europe as the essence of tyranny. Destroying them meant replacing them with nation-states. The American and French revolutions were both nationalist risings, as were the nationalist risings that swept Europe in 1848. Liberal revolutions were by definitions nationalist because they were risings against multinational empires.
Now the American Empire is similarly asserting itself, along with its minions and cronies in vassal states, with the predictable result that push back is rising as conditions deteriorate for more and more people under the boot. This opposition to the boot on the throat is being mischaracterized as "fascism" by the empire's propaganda machine.

EurActiv
In EU and US, nationalism is rising, not fascism
George Friedman, Stratfor
ht Don Quijones at Raging Bull-Shit


Edward Lambert — A New Model of the Economy Please

Brad DeLong wrote recently concerning the Uncertainty at the Fed…
“The heart of the trouble consists in the fact that neither financial-market participants nor, it seems, the Fed itself know the true state of the economy or how best to model it – especially in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis” (link)
It is a fact he says. The Fed and others do not know how best to model the state of the economy.
I stand alone with a new model for an Effective Demand limit as Keynes envisioned it
Angry Bear
A New Model of the Economy Please
Edward Lambert

Peter Dorman — Modernity and Capitalism

Well, that’s a heavy title. I’m not going to say the last word about it in a blog post, but I would like to make a fairly simple observation: for at least a century, defenders of capitalism have argued that the two are inextricably connected. If you like modernity you have to like capitalism, and if you get rid of capitalism you will lose modernity with it. By modernity I mean a way of life that is science-based, rational and skeptical, technologically innovative, liberal, cosmopolitan and adapted to markets.
The traditional response of the left was to argue that modernity under capitalism is flawed and that a better, socialist modernity is possible. In other words, it rejected the identity and saw modernity as bigger than any particular version of it.
That position has been complicated by the collapse of traditional models of socialism that do seem to fail the modernization test: they were clunky and inefficient, closed to the outside instead of open, stultifying instead of dynamic. Now, I can already hear the cries of paleo-socialists in my ear: No! Socialism didn’t fail in Russia/China/Cuba/wherever; it was encircled by the forces of capital and betrayed from within. I don’t agree, but I won’t debate it here; my only point is that most of the left is not paleo-socialist, so they’ve had to figure out what it means to be left wing and anti-capitalist in a world in which capitalism and modernity (in their eyes) largely coincide.…
Econospeak
Modernity and Capitalism
Peter Dorman | Professor of Political Economy, The Evergreen State College

May Steel Price Forecast


Portends continued USD bullish for now...





Rahul Srivastava — India Post Offices To Operate As Banks, Network To Be Largest In World: Government

By 2017, your neighbourhood post office will start operating as a bank. The Union Cabinet has cleared a proposal for setting up of the Indian Post Payment Bank, which will become operational from March next year.

"By March next year we will launch payments bank of the postal department. It's going to be a game changer. There are 1.54 lakh [154,000] post officers. And our network will be the largest in the world. Even bigger than State Bank of India," said Communications and IT Minister Ravi Shankar Prasad.
Mr Prasad also said that during the discussions for deciding the modalities, 60 international consortiums had shown keen interest to partner India Post for third partner delivery for insurance and banking, among others.

"50 top names are here including Barclays and others. Talks are on and a huge matrix will be created," said Mr Prasad.
India Post has the largest network of core banking solutions branches in India. There has been a steady rise from 250-odd in 2014 to 22,000 at present.
The postal bank eyes to penetrate rural India via the postal department's 1.39 rural postal branches. In the first phase, 650 payment bank branches will be set up. Initially, the target was to create the architecture in three years but today at the cabinet meet, Prime Minister Narendra Modi asked the minister to finish work by September next year….
The competition between India and China to dominate the global economy will be fierce — and interesting. They are approximately equal in population, but China is heavily wighted toward the aging and India toward the young, so India has a huge advantage demographically. Both countries are combine socialism and capitalism and will lead in forging a new "heterodox" system to replace the orthodoxy of neoliberalism as Western dominance declines. Presently, China's political system under market socialism with Chinese characteristics is much better organized than India's democratic but corrupt and some chaotic government apparatus, with different states taking widely different approaches. So presently China has the advantage in this regard.

NDTV India
Post Offices To Operate As Banks, Network To Be Largest In World: Government
Rahul Srivastava

Wednesday, June 1, 2016

David Biller and Blake Schmidt — Brazil's BNDES to Sell Assets, Seeks to Lure Private Investment

Brazil’s state development bank BNDES will sell equity assets and utilize concessions and privatizations as it seeks to attract the private investment needed to pull Latin America’s largest economy out of recession, according to the bank’s new president.…
This is not a coup? The neoliberals rush to privatize public assets and deregulate business and finance.

Bloomberg
Brazil's BNDES to Sell Assets, Seeks to Lure Private Investment
David Biller and Blake Schmidt

NORC Center for Public Affairs Research — The Frustrated Public: Views of the 2016 Campaign, the Parties, and the Electoral Process

Seventy percent of Americans say they feel frustrated about this year's presidential election, including roughly equal proportions of Democrats and Republicans, according to a recent national poll conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. More than half feel helpless and a similar percent are angry.

Nine in 10 Americans lack confidence in the country's political system, and among a normally polarized electorate, there are few partisan differences in the public's lack of faith in the political parties, the nominating process, and the branches of government.

Americans do not see either the Republicans or the Democrats as particularly receptive to new ideas or the views of the rank-and-file membership. However, the candidacy of Bernie Sanders for the Democratic nomination is more likely to be viewed as good for his party than Donald Trump's bid for the Republican Party.

The nationwide poll of 1,060 adults used the AmeriSpeak® Omnibus, a monthly multi-client survey using NORC at the University of Chicago's probability based panel. Interviews were conducted between May 12 and 15, 2016, online and using landlines and cellphones.
Some of the poll's key findings are:…. 
Americans are bummed.

The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research

Sergey Gladys — US Accused of Undermining the World Trade Organization

Members of the WTO, including Brazil, Japan, and the EU, raise red flags as the United States intervenes in the work of the global trade court.
The Duran
Sergey Gladysh

Mathew Forstater — Jobs, Money, Debt: Economic Common Sense (Episode 1: Jobs)

Welcome to the Binzagr Institute’s Vlog (video blog) series “Jobs, Money, Debt: Economic Common Sense” by Mathew Forstater, Research Director at the Binzagr Institute and Professor of Economics at UMKC. This Vlog series is designed to debunk myths about unemployment, deficits, the national debt, and the monetary system, and to articulate how we can create sustainable prosperity for the 21st century.
Watch, comment, share, subscribe to our YouTube channel, and stay tuned for more videos in the coming weeks and months.
Vlog No. 101
Jobs, Money, Debt: Economic Common Sense (Episode 1: Jobs)
Mathew Forstater

Some Good News About the Environment, plus a little bit about China

There’s been massive advances and cost reductions in solar energy systems and this video below was a delight to watch. In a world that’s driven by evil it seems that there is some good news about the world’s future  that the planet may survive after all (if the US doesn’t start WW3) and global warming may be a thing of the past. China is leading with the technology but a lot of German investment went into it too, and now Warren Buffett is investing heavily as well. 

For half the countries in the world in sunnier climates solar energy is less half the price of other forms of energy, but wind energy costs are rapidly falling too. Even in cooler climates solar is still the cheapest energy and a scientist in the Netherlands has solved the problem of the fluctuating weather and energy storage difficulties by using electric car batteries when the cars are parked up unused. Each house equipped with solar energy will be able to supply itself, the car, and have enough power to spare to feed back into the national grid for other people and industry to use. 

Imagine that, no fuel costs for your car ever again. Well, it’s coming.

It’s also a good documentary about China which shows how its different political system operates. Without elections to worry about the Chinese government was able to impose higher costs on its civilians in the past to reap much lower power costs later on for the benefit of everybody and the environment.  

The second documentary is about the rise of China which describes how the Chinese in the past were used to emperors benevolently ruling over them and they accept the communist party in much the same way. In fact, they rather like their government. In China the emperor always had to rule benignly and fairly bringing culture, law and order, and civilization and the communist government is expected to do the same.

The Chinese say they have the system that the third world could emulate to end its poverty. They believe that they should set a good example in the same way the emperors in the past were expected to give a good example to their citizens and parents to their children. The Washington way of force and coerce is rejected.  Confucianism forbids revenge and children are taught that it is bad, and it is considered to be a useless emotion, whereas Western culture is all about revenge, they say. This seems to be true from our films and novels. 


In Christianity people are considered tainted by sin and no amount of goodness can change this, but the Chinese believe that if children are brought up properly they will turn into good people. Chinese society is more about cooperation and unity whereas Ayn Rand pure selfishness and cynicism seems to have influenced too many people in the West.  

I found both documentaries to be uplifting. 

Documentary: The breakthrough in renewable energy (vpro Backlight)



The Chinese World Order (VPRO Backlight)

Global Manufacturing Stalled?


Hey Yahoo! idiots, its still "going 50"....??????




Matias Vernengo — Overdose of heterodoxy, failed Keynesian policies or same old balance of payments constraint

Ricardo Hausmann blames the situation in Venezuela to excessive heterodox policies. The piece is not particularly well written, but if you look for the deep cause of the crisis, according to Hausmann, then you must conclude that it is a fiscal one. The government spent too much, and got into too much debt.…
So fiscal problems, too much spending and borrowing, too much money printing, which caused inflation and the currency crisis (the black market gap between the official and parallel value of the domestic currency). As I have discussed in many posts (too many to link) and in a recent paper causality is upside down.…
Naked Keynesianism
Overdose of heterodoxy, failed Keynesian policies or same old balance of payments constraint
Matias Vernengo | Associate Professor of Economics, Bucknell University

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Merijn Knibbe — Cecchetti and Kharroubi on the non-neutrality of money

Is money ‘neutral’? Is it just a veil over ‘real’ transactions? Or does it affect the level and composition of ‘real’ expenditure? Stephen Cecchetti and Enisse Kharroubi recently published an article which in a very net way shows that money is non-neutral (as it is closely related to credit). It’s not a veil. It’s part of the essence of our economy. The abstract:….
Real-World Economics Review Blog
Cecchetti and Kharroubi on the non-neutrality of money
Merijn Knibbe

Andrea Terzi — Helicopter money: Too confused to be helpful

In his piece on helicopter money, Lord Adair Turner seemed to argue that:
1) The money multiplier provides the needed boost to expansionary fiscal policy, yet this boost could generate inflation.
2) The risk of inflation could be managed by raising reserve requirements as needed.
Both statements are incorrect.
And this is the slightly expanded version of my Letter to the Financial Times (FT.COM published an abridged version)….
Money And The Real Economy
Helicopter money: Too confused to be helpful
Andrea Terzi, Professor of Economics, Franklin College, Switzerland

S&P Industrial "cash"


If they could earn 5% risk free rate on these balances that would give them about another $60B to spend or distribute annual.





Left or libertarian?


In  a similar way from a technocratic perspective, we can see many libertarian people (some of the left and some of the right) looking at regulation of system interfaces as the "xenophobia!".

The problem isn't the "left" it is libertarianism whether left or right forms.



Marty Kaplan — Where America's At: Some Voters Want Trump to Win Just Because It Would Be 'Boring' Without Him


Hmm. I hadn't actually considered this.

AlterNet
Where America's At: Some Voters Want Trump to Win Just Because It Would Be 'Boring' Without Him
Marty Kaplan