Friday, April 29, 2011

Trader's Crucible Slays the IGBC Bogeyman

"If the violations of the no Ponzi criteria are not observable for the most liquid and transparent possible market in any economy, then the EMH must be wrong. No EMH in the market for money has devastating consequences.

"It’s at this point where I raise the head of the IGBC and proclaim the dragon slain. Either you believe the inflation rate as the only way to tell if people believe the IGBC is holding, or go back to believing in crystal balls telling the future. If you insist on a strong belief in magic, then I hand over the head of the EMH."

TC mounts a clever argument in the form of a dilemma — either the Intertemporal Government Budget Constraint (IGBC) or or the Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH), but not both.

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