Doug Short — Big Four Economic Indicators Still Near Stall Speed

• Industrial Production

• Real Personal Income (excluding Transfer Payments)

• Nonfarm Employment

• Real Retail Sales

Current Assessment and Outlook
The overall picture of the US economy had been one of slow recovery from the Great Recession with a clearly documented contraction during the winter, as reflected in Q1 GDP. Data for Q2 and Q3 supported the consensus view that severe winter weather was responsible for the Q1 contraction -- that it was not the beginnings of a business cycle decline. However, the average of these indicators in recent months suggests that, despite the Q2 rebound in GDP, the economy remains near stall speed. We'll need some near-term improvement to avoid rolling over.

Financial Sense
Big Four Economic Indicators Still Near Stall Speed

Doug Short | VP of Research at Advisor Perspectives