Are the most successful people in society just the luckiest people?
This is based on an article I put out here sometime back, but this goes further into the subject, although it reaches the same conclusions. Tallent certainly helps you to become successful, but luck trumps all.
So what did the simulation find? On the one hand, talent wasn't irrelevant to success. In general, those with greater talent had a higher probability of increasing their success by exploiting the possibilities offered by luck. Also, the most successful agents were mostly at least average in talent. So talent mattered.
However, talent was definitely not sufficient because the most talented individuals were rarely the most successful. In general, mediocre-but-lucky people were much more successful than more-talented-but-unlucky individuals. The most successful agents tended to be those who were only slightly above average in talent but with a lot of luck in their lives.
Scientific American
1 comment:
Well, don't underestimate the power of opportunism.
There once was a Nigerian, who sold a fake airport to a bank.
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