The Levy Institute Of Bard College was far ahead of anyone with its prescience on the fate of the U.S. economy (and also the world) before the crisis. So everyone should read them. Michalis Nikiforos and Gennaro Zezza have a new Strategic Analysis report....The Case for Concerted Action
A new report from Bard College’s Levy Economics Institute concludes that this bold idea – cancelling all outstanding student debt – would help the entire economy and create more than a million jobs.
To those who say we can’t afford to cancel this debt, the report poses a new and different question: Can we afford not to?
Cancel and Grow
Using widely-accepted economic tools, the report’s authors – Scott Fullwiler, Stephanie Kelton, Catherine Ruetschlin, and Marshall Steinbaum – found that cancelling all student debt this country would create between 1.2 and 1.5 million new jobs. It would also increase the nation’s GDP by $86 billion to $108 billion per year over the next ten years....Common Dreams
The recently passed Republican tax cut package will cost about $1.4 trillion over a decade, according to independent figures. It’s a very expensive policy that currently is not offset by an increase in government revenue, or by spending cuts.
Another measure would cost about the same amount and it too would be hard to justify as a deficit-busting policy. But it might have greater economic benefits, say economists. That policy would be canceling all student debt.
The contention comes from a paper from the Levy Economics Institute at Bard College, which models the macroeconomic impact of relieving 44 million Americans of what they owe for college. About 90% of the $1.4 trillion is held by the federal government. The rest is in the form of private loans.
This policy would be more macro-economically stimulative because of who the beneficiary is,” says Marshall Steinbaum, research director at the left-leaning Roosevelt Institute, and one of the authors of the report. “The tax cuts will go to higher income households that have a lower propensity to spend the money. We show that reducing the burden of student debt on households enables them to spend more.”...Fast Company
Audio from the 25th Annual Minsky Conference will be broadcast live. Listen here beginning tomorrow at 9am.Schedule is at link below.
ABSTRACTThe Levy Economics Institute Of Bard College
This paper presents a stock-flow consistent model+ of full-reserve banking. It is found that in a steady state, full-reserve banking can accommodate a zero-growth economy and provide both full employment and zero inflation. Furthermore, a money creation experiment is conducted with the model. An increase in central bank reserves translates into a two-thirds increase in demand deposits. Money creation through government spending leads to a temporary increase in real GDP and inflation. Surprisingly, it also leads to a permanent reduction in consolidated government debt. The claims that full-reserve banking would precipitate a credit crunch or excessively volatile interest rates are found to be baseless.
Senior Scholar James Galbraith on the “reforms” being demanded by creditors (vis. pensions, labor markets, privatization, and the VAT) in the negotiations over Greece’s fate...
The Levy Institute’s latest strategic analysis for Greece lays out the ways in which the austerity and “reform” program has undermined the Greek economy, and thereby the country’s ability to manage its public debt...
The pseudo-debate about whether Keynesians and other fellow travellers ought to be embarrassed when governments that engage in fiscal austerity nevertheless experience positive economic growth rates has become a distraction.
For countries like the US and the UK, it is possible under current circumstances for governments to implement budget cuts and still see their economies grow. But the truth of that statement is not fatal to the Keynesian-inspired critique of austerity policies; it is not by any means the end of the story. The more meaningful question is this: What would have to happen in these economies for significant growth to occur in the midst of budget tightening?
Finding an answer to that last question is one of the strengths of the approach to thinking about the economy pioneered by Wynne Godley, and fleshed out further in the Levy Institute’s strategic analysis series. This approach also provides a clear understanding of how deeply irresponsible it is to cut government spending under present economic conditions: because the danger, given the state of the US and UK economies, is not just that budget cuts might slow down the economy, but that they might not.….Countries can grow along with reducing government contribution either by increasing exports or private debt. Not all countries can increase exports simultaneously so some countries either have to increase the government contribution or see private debt rise in order to grow. The US is unlikely to become a net exporter or even significantly reduce its CAD anytime soon, even with shale oil and fracking. So the growth option under continued austerity is increasing private debt, which is not sustainable and would lead to another crisis down the road. Since the level of private debt is already high historically, it might not be very far down the road.
To bring this back to the tired discussions surrounding austerity policies: yes, it is possible for the United States to have both tight budgets and rising GDP over the next few years. Fiscal conservatism doesn’t make economic growth impossible in the near term — it makes it impossible to grow without increasing financial fragility. In the absence of a significant increase in net exports, keeping the government budget on its current track will lead to either stagnation or an acute crisis.
Austerians in the United States and elsewhere have been allowed to portray themselves as the champions of steely-eyed realism and prudence. In reality, unless their budget proposals come attached with some workable plan to substantially reduce trade deficits, they are courting private-debt-driven financial crises. In any meaningful sense, they are the true practitioners of fiscal irresponsibility.And a strong dollar is inimical to increasing net exports. Austerity tends to strengthen a currency. not so much by making it harder to get as by increasing confidence in the discipline and responsibility of the monetary authority — the same erroneous rationale that drives austerity.
The Levy Institute has a new Strategic Analysis publication titled Fiscal Austerity, Dollar Appreciation, And Maldistribution Will Derail The US Economy in which they identity three main structural characteristics of the economy of the United States that stand in the way of the recovery:
(1) the weak performance of net exports, (2) pervasive fiscal conservatism, and (3) high income inequalityThey show that in their baseline scenario, if the projections of the Congressional Budget Office’s outlook hold, their model simulations imply that the private sector’s net lending would turn negative by the end of 2017 and hence the private sector would be in a financial deficit, which is not sustainable.....
The Workers’ Think Tank: With an eye on the United States and Greece, scholars at the Levy Economics Institute are developing plans to ensure full employment, by Sasha Abramsky, February 2, 2015, The Nation.
http://www.thenation.com/article/196721/workers-think-tank
As Sasha notes, the Levy Institute has a novel approach to fighting unemployment: JOBS! Hardly anyone ever thinks about that–that the cause of unemployment is lack of jobs.
For some reason, virtually all policy-makers and economists (including progressives) think that jobs will magically appear. True, some suggest that US unemployment is created because China (et.al.) “steals” jobs that are rightfully due to America. Hence, the solution is to steal them back.
But why not just create more? Is it really that hard to come up with a list of things that people could usefully do, right here in America?Economonitor — Great Leap Forward
Multiplier Effect
Outside Money: The Advantages of Owning the Magic Porridge PotL. Randall Wray
Saturday, December 6, at noon (EST): Co-hosted by Program Director Jan Kregel. Research focus: Monetary Policy and Financial Structure
Wednesday, January 7, at 5pm (EST): Co-hosted by Research Scholar Michalis Nikiforos. Research focus: Macroeconomic Theory and Modeling
Back in 2009, Janet Yellen delivered a speech at the Levy Institute’s Minsky conference that explained how the financial crisis had changed her views about the role of central banks in handling financial instability. At the time she was the head of the San Francisco Fed.
The focus of her 2009 remarks was the question of how (or whether) central banks should try to counteract bubbles in asset markets. (Yellen also recalled the unfortunate topic of her 1996 conference speech: supposedly promising new innovations in the financial industry for better measurement and management of risk.) Bursting suspected bubbles has become the topic du jour in US monetary policy discussions, as it currently stands as the fashionable justification for tightening despite low inflation and high unemployment.
With the announcement that Larry Summers’ name has been withdrawn from consideration for the next Fed chair, the spotlight has turned to Yellen. Here (from the 2009 conference proceedings) is the text of her speech and a transcript of the brief Q&A that followed:Multiplier Effect
A Minsky Meltdown: Lessons for Central Bankers?
Further austerity can only worsen Greece's economic plight, particularly already-catastrophic unemployment, warns Dimitri B. Papadimitriou, president of the Levy Economics Institute, according to the Institute's macro-economic model. But "unthinkable" economic policies - suggested by conservative and progressive economists alike - could.Truthout Interview
Registration is now open for the Levy Institute’s fourth Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar, to be held on the Bard College campus in June 2013. The annual Summer Seminar provides a rigorous discussion of both the theoretical and the applied aspects of Minsky’s economics, and is geared toward recent graduates, graduate students, and those at the beginning of their academic or professional careers. Application deadline: March 31, 2013. Apply early, as space is limited. See here for more information.Multiplier Effect
Starting in fall 2013, the Levy Economics Institute will begin offering theMaster of Science in Economic Theory and Policy, a two-year degree program designed to meet the preprofessional needs of undergraduates in economics and finance. Headed by Senior Scholar and Program Director Jan Kregel, this innovative program draws on the expertise of Institute scholars and select Bard College faculty, and emphasizes empirical and policy analysis through specialization in one of four key research areas: macroeconomic theory, policy, and modeling; monetary policy and financial structure; distribution of income, wealth, and well-being, including gender equality and time poverty; and employment and labor markets.Multiplier Effect
The Levy Institute has announced its collaboration with the daily financial newspaperExpress, based in Athens, Greece. Beginning with its April 22 issue, Express will publish each week, on a specially designated page in its Sunday edition, articles, research summaries, and interviews by Levy Institute scholars and associates. The collaboration is a natural extension of the Institute’s recent undertaking in translating selected publications into Greek as part of its mission to disseminate its research findings to the global community, and as a gesture of solidarity with a nation under severe duress due to an unprecedented economic crisis. The editorial work for this collaborative project will be carried out by C. J. Polychroniou, a research associate and policy fellow at the Levy Institute.Read it at Multiplier Effect
