Franz-Stefan Gady — Russia Begins Sea Trials of Nuclear-Capable ‘Poseidon’ Underwater Drone

Russia has reportedly commenced sea trials of its ultimate doomsday weapon, a nuclear-capable underwater vehicle (UUV), dubbed ‘Poseidon,’ purportedly designed to deliver a 2-megaton nuclear warhead to destroy naval bases, carrier strike groups, and entire coastal cities by triggering a radioactive Tsunami wave.

The sea trials of the “Poseidon” began last week and are primarily focused on the UUVs guidance system and underwater operations in autonomous mode. Work on the “Poseidon” is reportedly progressing according to schedule, the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) said in a July 19 statement....

The nuclear-capable UUV has “primarily designed to destroy reinforced naval bases of a potential enemy,” the source added in May of this year. Despite having been officially revealed to the public in March, the Russian MoD has so far not publicly commented on the UUVs nuclear payload....

The Diplomat
Russia Begins Sea Trials of Nuclear-Capable ‘Poseidon’ Underwater Drone
Franz-Stefan Gady

The Saker — Debunking two American myths

There are two myths which are deeply imprinted in the minds of most US Americans which are extremely dangerous and which can result in a war with Russia.

• The first myth is the myth of the US military superiority.
• The second myth is the myth about the US invulnerability.

I believe that it is therefore crucial to debunk these myths before they end up costing us millions of lives and untold suffering.…

Military analysis follows. The video is interesting, too, about 8 minutes.

The Unz Review
Debunking two American myths
The Saker

Jon Schwarz — We Can Stop North Korea From Attacking Us. All We Have to Do Is Not Attack Them.

North Korea is not going to launch a first strike on America or its allies with nuclear weapons.

To understand this, you don’t need to know anything about the history of U.S.-North Korea relations, or the throw weight of intercontinental ballistic missiles, or even where North Korea is. All you need to know is human history. And history says that small, poor, weak countries tend not to start wars with gigantic, wealthy, powerful countries — especially when doing so will obviously result in their obliteration.

So what exactly is the “crisis” involving North Korea?

The answer is simple: We’re not worried that we can’t deter North Korea. We’re worried because a North Korea that can plausibly strike the U.S. with nuclear weapons will likely be able to deter us from doing whatever we want. For example, we might not be able to invade North Korea.…

One lucid example can be found in “Rebuilding America’s Defenses,” a well-known paper by the Project for a New American Century. The U.S., it explained, “must counteract the effects of the proliferation of ballistic missiles and weapons of mass destruction that may soon allow lesser states to deter U.S. military action. … In the post-Cold War era, America and its allies, rather than the Soviet Union, have become the primary objects of deterrence and it is states like Iraq, Iran and North Korea who most wish to develop deterrent capabilities.”... 

The Intercept

We Can Stop North Korea From Attacking Us. All We Have to Do Is Not Attack Them.
Jon Schwarz

Alex Tabarrok — What Was Gary Becker’s Biggest Mistake?

Gary Becker on rational choice theory applied to crime and punishment.

Marginal Revolution
What Was Gary Becker’s Biggest Mistake?
Alex Tabarrok | Bartley J. Madden Chair in Economics at the Mercatus Center and am a professor of economics at George Mason University. I am also a research fellow with the Mercatus Center

See also

Publisher's blurb:

It is widely believed today that the free market is the best mechanism ever invented to efficiently allocate resources in society. Just as fundamental as faith in the free market is the belief that government has a legitimate and competent role in policing and the punishment arena. This curious incendiary combination of free market efficiency and the Big Brother state has become seemingly obvious, but it hinges on the illusion of a supposedly natural order in the economic realm. The Illusion of Free Markets argues that our faith in “free markets” has severely distorted American politics and punishment practices.

Bernard Harcourt traces the birth of the idea of natural order to eighteenth-century economic thought and reveals its gradual evolution through the Chicago School of economics and ultimately into today’s myth of the free market. The modern category of “liberty” emerged in reaction to an earlier, integrated vision of punishment and public economy, known in the eighteenth century as “police.” This development shaped the dominant belief today that competitive markets are inherently efficient and should be sharply demarcated from a government-run penal sphere.

This modern vision rests on a simple but devastating illusion. Superimposing the political categories of “freedom” or “discipline” on forms of market organization has the unfortunate effect of obscuring rather than enlightening. It obscures by making both the free market and the prison system seem natural and necessary. In the process, it facilitated the birth of the penitentiary system in the nineteenth century and its ultimate culmination into mass incarceration today.

The Illusion of Free Markets: Punishment and the Myth of Natural Order
Bernard E. Harcourt

Franz-Stefan Gady — Revealed: Russia Test-Fired Nuclear Missiles

Last week, the Russian military conducted weapon drills involving its strategic nuclear forces and high-precision long-range weapons, according to TASS. The aim of the military exercise was to test the combat readiness of Russia’s nuclear triad.

A Russian Ministry of Defense press release stated that the war games tested “the reliability of relaying combat-training orders and signals along the entire command and control vertical, from the Russian national defense control center to the command posts of formations and military units.”

“In general, the results of the drills demonstrated high combat readiness of strategic nuclear forces and high-precision long-range weapons,” Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said on Tuesday.

The Diplomat
Revealed: Russia Test-Fired Nuclear Missiles

Franz-Stefan Gady

Rakesh Krishnan Simha — Mobile Agni: Game changer or risky gambit?

In a giant leap for India’s deterrence capability, the country recently conducted the third consecutive successful launch of the Agni V strategic missile. Road mobile strategic missiles were developed by Russia because they are more survivable but considering the security environment in South Asia, it could be a risky option.…

With the third consecutive successful launch of the Agni V strategic missile, India is on the cusp of attaining strategic deterrence. This is the big boys club where you have enough missiles for a devastating second strike after suffering a full-on nuclear attack. 

The aspect of the missile that will keep the Chinese – among others – awake at night is that it was cold launched from a hermetically sealed canister mounted on a tractor-erector-launcher (TEL). “Launch from a canister integrated with a TEL enables launch in minutes as compared with a silo – or open – launch. It also has advantages of higher reliability, longer shelf life, less maintenance and enhanced mobility,” says the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO). 

A mobile system will allow India to keep the Agni Vs constantly moving along its road network. They can also be hidden off the road, in secret bunkers or forests, thereby keeping the enemy guessing all the time. Throw in several dozen dummy canisters and trucks, and you add more uncertainty about the exact whereabouts of the real Agni V missiles. 

Russia was the first country to develop road and rail mobile ICBMs. Whereas America has its nuclear triad (silo-based, submarine-based and air-launched nuclear weapons), Russia has a four-pronged approach with its land mobile ICBMs. 

“By dispersing a portion of its land-based nuclear arsenal throughout its great wilderness, Russia makes it very hard for the US to hit all of its nuclear emplacements during a 'first strike' scenario,” says the military website Foxtrot Alpha. “This greatly enhances Russia's land-based nuclear arsenal's deterrence factor. Just the threat of a second-strike ability, not just from Russia's SSBN submarine force that America works very hard to track, but from road-mobile ICBMs, and very capable ones at that, makes Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) a continuing reality.”… 

But what works for Russia – or for that matter China, which also has a road mobile ICBM – may not necessarily work for India. During the Soviet years, Russia was not an easy place to travel, with its own citizens requiring passes to travel internally. There were regions and cities that were off limits to most civilians, forget foreigners. Under such circumstances, one could operate these rail and road mobile ICBMs, without the threat of terrorists or spies trying to sabotage or infiltrate these missile groups.… 

Providing extra security for land mobile ICBMs will only compromise secrecy and thereby defeat the purpose of having them on mobile platforms. Considering that India is a soft state where radicalised groups brag about their aim to destabilise India and also openly associate with jehadis, it might be worthwhile to rethink the decision and look at launching more ICBMs from sea-based platforms.…

While the government press releases continues to describe the Agni V as a 5500 km range IRBM or intermediate range ballistic missile, Chander described the missile as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). 

Chander was asked to resign hours before the launch, so the missile man really had nothing to lose – and everything to gain – by revealing the missile’s true scope. In fact, the Chinese – who were observing the test – believe India deliberately flew the missile in a flat trajectory to curtail its range to 5500 km whereas the Agni V is, in their opinion, capable of 7000-8000 km. 

With incremental increases, the Agni’s arc will sooner than later cover the US mainland. You see, it all comes down to this: when you are powerful everybody thinks you are great and your jokes are funny too.

Russia & India Report
Mobile Agni: Game changer or risky gambit?
Rakesh Krishnan Simha

Paul R. Pillar — Forgetting the Lessons of Deterrence

“Tough-guy/gal-ism” is rampant again in Official Washington with many New Cold Warriors lusting for a military confrontation with Russia. But few of these hawks have a clear idea how deterrence worked during the real Cold War, writes ex-CIA analyst Paul R. Pillar.

Consortiumnews

Forgetting the Lessons of Deterrence

Paul R. Pillar

See also The Danger of False Narrative by Robert Parry

Amateurs in charge. Grownups missing.