A New Pipeline Could Undo America’s Influence In Asia — Simon Watkins

From the moment that the U.S. re-imposed sanctions in earnest on Iran late last year, Pakistan has been looking at ways to resuscitate a deal that had been agreed in principle before the U.S. unilaterally withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) last May. This deal involved moving as much gas as Pakistan needs from Iran’s Asalouyeh into Pakistan’s Gwadar and then on to Nawabshah for further transit if required. At the same time, China has been in long-running discussions with Pakistan over the specific projects that Beijing wanted to place in Pakistan as part of its ‘One Belt, One Road’ (OBOR) programme. All the while, the U.S. has been trying to stymie any such arrangement but OilPrice.com understands that the Iran-China-Pakistan deal is now back on, and with a vengeance.

China’s covert strategic deals are virtually always buried in interminably long anodyne statements that belie the true laser-focused intentions of Beijing and this time is no different....

Oilprice
A New Pipeline Could Undo America’s Influence In Asia

Simon Watkins

Revisiting Education of Economics – Dr. Omer Javed

Economics and teaching economics in Pakistan. Good short summary of the history of economics. Curiously, he doesn't mention MMT or even Post Keynesianism, taking a decidedly institutional approach. MMT economists draw on Post Keynesianism and institutional economics heavily, although these are not the only influences. 

Global Village Space
Revisiting Education of Economics – Dr. Omer Javed

Omer Javed, institutional political economist,who previously worked at International Monetary Fund

M. K. Bhadrakumar — SCO summit: Inflection point for Indian diplomacy

When India applied for SCO membership or when observers like myself felt elated when India was finally admitted into the grouping in 2017, no one could have foreseen that the grouping held such potential in the very near term itself as a platform for the reset of regional politics — in particular, the India-Pakistan-China triangle.

New possibilities are opening up for Indian diplomacy at the two-day summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) at Bishkek on June 13-14....

India Punchline
SCO summit: Inflection point for Indian diplomacy
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service

Pepe Escobar — The new Great Game on the Roof of the World

Backgrounder focusing especially on Pakistan. The potential is enormous, but so are the challenges. But it's happening, in spite of obstacles thrown in the way by the US and UK (an area where the British Empire was actively engaged in the 19th century).

Asia Times
The new Great Game on the Roof of the World

Pepe Escobar

Graham E. Fuller — Pakistan Elections—Maybe Good News for Pakistan, But Not for U.S.

Backgrounder. Should read if interested in geopolitics, geostrategy and international relations. This is a pivotal area of the world that most Westerners ignore as "backward." It is now coming into play and will be increasingly influential in the dynamic among the Atlanticists, Russia, India, and China, owing to developing strategic importance as the rivalry between the Global North and West versus the Global South and East heats up.

This pretty much boils down to the developed world versus the emerging world. Previously, the developed world was dominant, but the game has shifted as the developed world begins to peak and decline while the emerging world emerges more and more rapidly. The combined GDP of the emerging world surpassed that of the developed world in the past decade.

Pakistan is a key piece on the grand chessboard (

Graham E. Fuller Blog
Pakistan Elections—Maybe Good News for Pakistan, But Not for U.S.
Graham E. Fuller | adjunct professor of history at Simon Fraser University, formerly vice chairman of the National Intelligence Council at the CIA, and a former senior political scientist at RAND

See also

Graham Fuller is an old hand. Andrew Korybko is an up and comer.

Oriental Review
Pakistan’s New Leader Is A Democratically Elected Populist-Visionary

Andrew Korybko

Michael Roberts — Pakistan: it’s not cricket

Backgrounder on Pakistan and analysis of the outcome of the recent election there. Pakistan is important geopolitically and geostrategically.

Michael Roberts Blog
Pakistan: it’s not cricket
Michael Roberts

Tom Winter — Historic meeting of Intel Chiefs from Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and China – But why?

Top security and intelligence officials from Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and China held a meeting in Islamabad, where they stressed the need for more active involvement of regional forces in efforts to resolve the conflict in Afghanistan.This is reported by TASS.

On Tuesday, a meeting of leaders of the intelligence services of Russia, Iran, China and Pakistan was held in Islamabad, at which measures were discussed to combat the threat of the reunification of ISIS fighters in Afghanistan....

Not stated in any of the news accounts of this meeting is the likely spur that led to it. Last month the Chief of Iranian General Staff Major General Mohammad Hossein Baqeri accused the US of transferring Daesh terrorists, defeated in Syria and Iraq, into Afghanistan.

Sputnik alike has reported “The US has been accused numerous times of providing various forms of support to Daesh and other terrorist groups, operating in the region....

For Russ

Historic meeting of Intel Chiefs from Pakistan, Iran, Russia, and China – But why?

Tom Winter

See also

Geopolitics Alert
5 Times the US Actively Supported ISIS or Similar Groups (Yes, Actively)

Brandon Stout, former member of the petty-bourgeoisie and is now a class traitor living happily in Detroit, Michigan

Update

Fort Russ
German RT — Historic Islamabad Meeting Of Intel Chiefs, Omitting The US, In The German PressIntelligence services of Russia, Iran, China & Pakistan decide to cooperate in Afghanistan - without the USA
Tom Winter

Reuters — India most vulnerable country to climate change - HSBC report

India is the most vulnerable country to climate change, followed by Pakistan, the Philippines and Bangladesh, a ranking by HSBC showed on Monday....

Pakistan was ranked by HSBC among nations least well-equipped to respond to climate risks....

Not that prior to the partition of India after independence, Pakistan and Bangladesh were part of India. This area of the subcontinent is most vulnerable.

Reuters
India most vulnerable country to climate change - HSBC report

Bilal Khan — The right question about Trump’s Afghan policy

In the context of America’s Afghanistan problem, Pakistan joined the international coalition in the wake of the attacks on September 11, 2001, allegedly as a result of a direct threat by US secretary of state Colin Powell to the Pakistani president at the time, Pervez Musharraf. It is a folly to believe that the interests of these two countries converge in the larger scheme of things. They never have.

In terms of soft power, the United States has never enjoyed high approval ratings among the Pakistani populace. In terms of hard power, the US historically has used two tools to coerce Pakistan: one, much-needed military assistance, and two, economic bailouts from time to time. Most of the time, the United States has offered both to the real center of power in Pakistan – the military.

The US has never preferred to deal with civilian institutions or democratically elected rulers in Pakistan despite Americans’ alleged love of democracy. Too many decision-makers and sensitive constituencies wasted too much time for the Americans’ liking and often fell short of offering full servitude. They wanted results, by hook or by crook – that is how Pakistanis see how Americans have used them. What adds to such injury is not just the insult US President Donald Trump hurled at them on August 21, but the sense that the United States discards Pakistan whenever it wishes.…

Enter the dragon.

China may not yet be as great a power as the United States, but it has offered Pakistan what the Americans never did: respect. At the same time, the Chinese share Pakistan’s more immediate and pressing regional interests. Pakistan today is a relatively safer and economically viable place than it was 16 years ago, thanks largely to Chinese investment and the sacrifices Pakistan wants the West to recognize. If these trends continue, Washington will increasingly lose any hard-power leverage it once enjoyed in Islamabad....

The right question to ask.

Many experts around the globe are asking how likely the new US policy is to succeed. That is the wrong question to ask. America’s new policy for Afghanistan is doomed to fail, as former Pakistani finance minister Shahid Javed Burki has correctly concluded. However, the right question to ask is: What happens next when it fails?

If the precedent prevails, a wider war is the right answer.

Asia Times
The right question about Trump’s Afghan policy

Bilal Khan

M.K. Bhadrakumar — Pakistan trumps new US strategy for Afghanistan

In the final analysis, [US Ambassador] Hale’s softer line was probably influenced by the resolution passed by the Pakistan National Assembly and Senate last week, which amongst other things demanded the suspension of supply routes for US forces via Pakistan in Afghanistan.

The Pentagon heavily depends on Pakistani transit routes, which are logistically and financially the most optimal. Any American ‘surge’ in Afghanistan likely means even greater dependence on Pakistan’s cooperation to keep the routes open.

It is debatable how seriously the Pakistani military’s leadership took Trump’s threats in the first place. They would know that Washington is hardly in a position to read the riot act to Pakistan, given the worsening security situation in Afghanistan, the ineptitude of the US’ Afghan ally and a highly complicated regional milieu where the US faces near-total isolation.

In all likelihood, Pakistan sensed that Trump was largely grandstanding before multiple US audiences.

Asia Times
Pakistan trumps new US strategy for Afghanistan

M.K. Bhadrakumar

See also

The plot thickens.

North Korea declares H-bomb test ‘a perfect success’

AFP

China’s anger at West to overshadow tougher action on North Korea

Ben Blanchard and Philip Wen

Sputnik International — Pakistan to Seek Consensus With Russia, China Over Trump's New South Asia Policy

Pakistani Foreign Minister says his country will work together with Russia and China in the light of the new US strategy for Afghanistan.

Sputnik International
Pakistan to Seek Consensus With Russia, China Over Trump's New South Asia Policy

China Affirms Alliance with Pakistan After Trump Says Islamabad Abets Terrorists

Assad Abu Khalil — "The United States assassinated Pakistan's first PM, Nawabzada Liaquat Ali Khan, more than sixty years ago"

"The United States assassinated Pakistan's first PM, Nawabzada Liaquat Ali Khan, more than sixty years ago, according to US State Department documents. Quoting the declassified State Department documents, Pakistan Today reported on Friday that Khan was murdered because of his refusal to use his office for securing oil contracts in neighboring Iran for US corporations. According to the report, Khan said he would neither use his friendship with officials in Tehran for dishonest purposes nor interfere in personal affairs of Iran."

The Angry Arab

"The United States assassinated Pakistan's first PM, Nawabzada Liaquat Ali Khan, more than sixty years ago"

Assad Abu Khalil | Professor of Political Science, California State University, Stanislaus

See also

US is forming a Syrian militia: US is opposed to Arab militias--unless they are formed by it or by Israel

Asif Aziz — A Pound of Flesh: Why is India Trying to Sabotage the Silk Road Initiative?

29 countries attended, including delegates from the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the United Nations; even the US. However India, the OBOR Initiative’s second-largest investor, boycotted the event.

His absence was a mum protest against People’s Republic of China President Xi Jinping’s shrewd decision to deepen ties with Pakistani President Nawaz Sharif on the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC); a vital trade route into the Middle East for the OBOR.

More geopolitics and geostrategy around the New Silk Road initiative (OBOR — One Belt One Road).

Astute News
A Pound of Flesh: Why is India Trying to Sabotage the Silk Road Initiative?

Asif Aziz

Deep Jayasekera — Using India to encircle China

Indian Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar and his US counterpart, Ashton Carter, announced Monday that they have signed an agreement that gives US combat planes and warships and their personnel routine access to Indian military bases for resupply, repairs, and rest. The India-US Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) also allows the Pentagon to “forward position” materiel on Indian bases.
With the signing of the LEMOA, India has taken a major step toward becoming a “frontline” state in US imperialism’s drive to strategically isolate, encircle, and prepare to wage war on China.

This is being done entirely behind the backs of the Indian people. While various Indian military and geo- strategists chortle over the supposed leverage India will gain thanks to its alliance with Washington, the LEMOA is being publicly presented as largely benign. The Indian media is making much of the fact that the LEMOA is a reciprocal agreement that also provides for India’s military to use American bases—no matter that the difference between the global reach of the US and Indian militaries is exponential….

India’s close military-strategic ties with Moscow date back to the Cold War. However, the US has surpassed Russia as India’s largest military supplier and the Indian and US militaries are, as exemplified by the LEMOA, increasingly enmeshed. Washington’s strategic turn to New Delhi has been driven by its determination to thwart China’s rise. But there is no question that at least since 2014, when India failed to fall into line with the US’ depiction of Russia as the “aggressor” in the Ukraine, a key objective of Washington’s India policy has been to weaken and ultimately break New Delhi’s strategic alliance with Moscow.

The world is influx geopolitically and geostrategically. This transition greatly increases the dangers. India is positioning itself as China's rival for Asian hegemony but at the cost of becoming a vassal of the American Empire.

India has also further positioned itself in the Chinese crosshairs without a defense pace with the US.

Defend Democracy
Using India to encircle China
Deepal Jayasekera

Rakesh Krishnan Simha — Mobile Agni: Game changer or risky gambit?

In a giant leap for India’s deterrence capability, the country recently conducted the third consecutive successful launch of the Agni V strategic missile. Road mobile strategic missiles were developed by Russia because they are more survivable but considering the security environment in South Asia, it could be a risky option.…

With the third consecutive successful launch of the Agni V strategic missile, India is on the cusp of attaining strategic deterrence. This is the big boys club where you have enough missiles for a devastating second strike after suffering a full-on nuclear attack. 

The aspect of the missile that will keep the Chinese – among others – awake at night is that it was cold launched from a hermetically sealed canister mounted on a tractor-erector-launcher (TEL). “Launch from a canister integrated with a TEL enables launch in minutes as compared with a silo – or open – launch. It also has advantages of higher reliability, longer shelf life, less maintenance and enhanced mobility,” says the Defence Research & Development Organisation (DRDO). 

A mobile system will allow India to keep the Agni Vs constantly moving along its road network. They can also be hidden off the road, in secret bunkers or forests, thereby keeping the enemy guessing all the time. Throw in several dozen dummy canisters and trucks, and you add more uncertainty about the exact whereabouts of the real Agni V missiles. 

Russia was the first country to develop road and rail mobile ICBMs. Whereas America has its nuclear triad (silo-based, submarine-based and air-launched nuclear weapons), Russia has a four-pronged approach with its land mobile ICBMs. 

“By dispersing a portion of its land-based nuclear arsenal throughout its great wilderness, Russia makes it very hard for the US to hit all of its nuclear emplacements during a 'first strike' scenario,” says the military website Foxtrot Alpha. “This greatly enhances Russia's land-based nuclear arsenal's deterrence factor. Just the threat of a second-strike ability, not just from Russia's SSBN submarine force that America works very hard to track, but from road-mobile ICBMs, and very capable ones at that, makes Mutually Assured Destruction (MAD) a continuing reality.”… 

But what works for Russia – or for that matter China, which also has a road mobile ICBM – may not necessarily work for India. During the Soviet years, Russia was not an easy place to travel, with its own citizens requiring passes to travel internally. There were regions and cities that were off limits to most civilians, forget foreigners. Under such circumstances, one could operate these rail and road mobile ICBMs, without the threat of terrorists or spies trying to sabotage or infiltrate these missile groups.… 

Providing extra security for land mobile ICBMs will only compromise secrecy and thereby defeat the purpose of having them on mobile platforms. Considering that India is a soft state where radicalised groups brag about their aim to destabilise India and also openly associate with jehadis, it might be worthwhile to rethink the decision and look at launching more ICBMs from sea-based platforms.…

While the government press releases continues to describe the Agni V as a 5500 km range IRBM or intermediate range ballistic missile, Chander described the missile as an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). 

Chander was asked to resign hours before the launch, so the missile man really had nothing to lose – and everything to gain – by revealing the missile’s true scope. In fact, the Chinese – who were observing the test – believe India deliberately flew the missile in a flat trajectory to curtail its range to 5500 km whereas the Agni V is, in their opinion, capable of 7000-8000 km. 

With incremental increases, the Agni’s arc will sooner than later cover the US mainland. You see, it all comes down to this: when you are powerful everybody thinks you are great and your jokes are funny too.

Russia & India Report
Mobile Agni: Game changer or risky gambit?
Rakesh Krishnan Simha

alexrpt — Do Americans still honestly believe the “Russia is isolated” Obama lie? Egypt the latest country to join Eurasian new world order

Earlier today we reported on India, Pakistan an Iran ready to begin their ascent into the China-Russia lead SCO. Moments ago, Egypt jumped on the Eurasian train, inking more than $4.5 billion of trade deals with Russia and a huge free trade agreement with the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU). Best of all, no austerity is required in order to join this union…the EU may want to take notes.

Red Pill Times
Do Americans still honestly believe the “Russia is isolated” Obama lie? Egypt the latest country to join Eurasian new world order

alexrpt

Also

Did Europe just blink, or did Greece just blink? The game of financial chicken is heating up between the EU and Greece

A multi-polar world is rising. India, Pakistan, Iran move closer to joining the Shanghai Cooperation Organization

USA and Russia, bailing out Greece…together? Greece’s Plan B may see Russia, US and China come to the rescue

Natalya Zamaraeva — Pakistan-India: New Phase of Nuclear Tensions

“Pakistan reserves the right to safeguard its national security interests; the operationalisation of Indo-US nuclear deal for political and economic expediencies would have a detrimental impact on deterrence stability in South Asia,” the foreign minister of Pakistan said, describing the outcome of the visit of President Barack Obama to India in the end of January 2015. 

For the first time, the current political leadership in Islamabad officially broadcast their reaction in connection with the events in another country.The highly emotional statements revealed the backlog of complaints against both Washington and New Delhi.

Pakistan sees the signing of the Indo-American nuclear agreement as a violation of the balance of nuclear and conventional weapons. Taking into consideration national security interests, Islamabad adheres to the position that it cannot continue to rely on strategic stability and deterrence in the region anymore, thinking that this way the nuclear threshold can significantly decrease. It sees the building up of nuclear potential as one of the possible ways and means of equalizing the balance. In this connection, on January 29, 2015, Pakistan warned of a new round of the arms race in South Asia.

Looks like Washington cannot have a relationship with both Pakistan and India, but will have to choose. If the US chooses India, it will have to compete with Russia,which has a deeep foothold there already and cede Pakistan to China, further solidifying China's domination of Eurasia. Choosing Pakistan leaves India to Russia.

Looking good for the arms industry though.

New Eastern Outlook
Pakistan-India: New Phase of Nuclear Tensions
Natalya Zamaraeva, Ph.D. | Senior Research Fellow, Pakistan Institute for Near-East Studies

First appeared:http://journal-neo.org/2015/02/08/rus-pakistan-indiya-vitok-yadernoj-napryazhennosti/

US betting on the wrong horse?

Reuters
As ties warm, U.S. restarts security assistance to Pakistan

Business Times

[Indian Prime Minster] Manmohan Singh heads for Russia, China to boost ties