David Z. Morris — Ray Kurzweil: Here’s Why Solar Will Dominate Energy Within 12 Years

Ray Kurzweil has made a bold prediction about the future of solar energy, saying in remarks at a recent medical technology conference that it could become the dominant force in energy production in a little over a decade. That may be tough to swallow, given that solar currently only supplies around 2% of global energy—but Kurzweil’s predictions have been overwhelmingly correct over the last two decades, so he’s worth listening to.

Kurzweil’s basic point, as reported by Solar Power World, was that while solar is still tiny, it has begun to reliably double its market share every two years—today’s 2% share is up from just 0.5% in 2012.

Many analysts extend growth linearly from that sort of pattern, concluding that we’ll see 0.5% annual growth in solar for the foreseeable future, reaching just 12% solar share in 20 years. But linear analysis ignores what Kurzweil calls the Law of Accelerating Returns—that as new technologies get smaller and cheaper, their growth becomes exponential.…

Fortune
Ray Kurzweil: Here’s Why Solar Will Dominate Energy Within 12 Years

David Z. Morris

Alex Kirby — The United States Has Blocked a Plan by India to Expand Solar Power and Create Local Jobs

Because "free trade."

India has been told that it cannot go ahead as planned with its ambitious plan for a huge expansion of its renewable energy sector, because it seeks to provide work for Indian people. The case against India was brought by the US.

The ruling, by the World Trade Organisation (WTO), says India’s National Solar Mission—which would create local jobs, while bringing electricity to millions of people—must be changed because it includes a domestic content clause requiring part of the solar cells to be produced nationally.

What a difference two months make. On 12 December last year, US President Barack Obama praised the Paris Agreement on tackling climate change, just hours after it was finally concluded. “We’ve shown what’s possible when the world stands as one,” he said, adding that the agreement “represents the best chance we have to save the one planet that we’ve got”.

The WTO says that its dispute settlement panel “handed the US a clear-cut victory . . . when it found that local content requirements India imposed on private solar power producers in a massive solar project violated trade rules, although the two sides are still discussing a potential settlement to the dispute”.

One official of India’s Ministry of New and Renewable Energy told India Climate Dialogue that the ruling might make the country’s solar plan more expensive, and would definitely hit domestic manufacturing and, consequently, the possibility of creating jobs in the sector.

That's not all:

“In the last three months alone, Ecuador was ordered to pay $1billion for cancelling a petrol contract under a Bilateral Investment Treaty . . . Governments must be free to implement sound climate policy.

“This ruling shows the dangers posed by more wide-ranging trade agreements such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Trade in Services Agreement (TiSA) and Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP), which will liberalise trade in dirty fossil fuels and restrict government options even further.”

Truthdig
The United States Has Blocked a Plan by India to Expand Solar Power and Create Local Jobs
Alex Kirby | Climate News Network

MIT Future of Solar Energy Study

In the face of the global warming challenge, solar energy holds massive potential for meeting humanity's energy needs over the long term while cutting greenhouse gas emissions. Solar energy has recently become a rapidly growing source of electricity worldwide, its advancement aided by federal, state, and local policies in the United States as well as by government support in Europe, China, and elsewhere. As a result

the solar industry has become global in important respects. Nevertheless, while costs have declined substantially in recent years and market penetration has grown, major scale-up in the decades ahead will depend on the solar industry's ability to overcome several major hurdles with respect to cost, the availability of technology and materials to support very large-scale expansion, and successful integration at large scale into existing electric systems. Without government policies to help overcome these challenges, it is likely that solar energy will continue to supply only a small percentage of world electricity needs and that the cost of reducing carbon emissions will be higher than it could be.

A policy of pricing CO2 emissions will reduce those emissions at least cost. But until Congress is willing to adopt a serious carbon pricing regime, the risks and challenges posed by global climate change, combined with solar energy's potential to play a major role in managing those risks and challenges, create a powerful rationale for sustaining and refining government efforts to support solar energy technology using the most efficient available policies.

MIT Future of Solar Energy Study

Michael McElfresh — Tesla batteries: just the beginning of how technology will transform the electric grid

The spread of cost-effective batteries will fundamentally change the way the electric grid operates. Combined with other innovations, batteries in homes and businesses will transform how people and businesses treat electricity.

Along the way, these batteries will improve the efficiency and reliability of the grid overall.

The Conversation
Tesla batteries: just the beginning of how technology will transform the electric grid
Michael McElfresh | Adjunct Professor of Electrical Engineering at Santa Clara University

Xinhua — Chinese firm to produce solar-powered cars

Hanergy Holding Group Ltd., the world's largest thin-film solar power company, will launch as many as five models of solar-powered cars in October, its chairman announced on Monday. 

Hanergy is cooperating with three overseas and two domestic partners on the vehicles, board chairman Li Hejun told a press conference. Hanergy announced in late January that it had acquired Alta Devices, an American competitor, with charging stations for Tesla in Beijing and Shanghai. 

The new models will have a range of 80 to 100 km once fully charged, he said. 

"There are currently only 400,000 electric cars in the world but the market is expected to hit 10 million by 2020," said Lin.

Xinhua
Chinese firm to produce solar-powered cars

Physics.org — New solar power material converts 90 percent of captured light into heat

A multidisciplinary engineering team at the University of California, San Diego developed a new nanoparticle-based material for concentrating solar power plants designed to absorb and convert to heat more than 90 percent of the sunlight it captures. The new material can also withstand temperatures greater than 700 degrees Celsius and survive many years outdoors in spite of exposure to air and humidity. Their work, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's SunShot program, was published recently in two separate articles in the journal Nano Energy.

Physics.org
New solar power material converts 90 percent of captured light into heat
University of California, San Diego

McKinsey — The disruptive potential of solar power

The bottom line: the financial crisis, cheap natural gas, subsidy cuts by cash-strapped governments, and a flood of imports from Chinese solar-panel manufacturers have profoundly challenged the industry’s short-term performance. But they haven’t undermined its potential; indeed, global installations have continued to rise—by over 50 percent a year, on average, since 2006. The industry is poised to assume a bigger role in global energy markets; as it evolves, its impact on businesses and consumers will be significant and widespread. Utilities will probably be the first, but far from the only, major sector to feel solar’s disruptive potential.

McKinsey Quarterly
The disruptive potential of solar power
David Frankel, Kenneth Ostrowski, and Dickon Pinner

Kiley Kroh — California Installed More Rooftop Solar In 2013 Than Previous 30 Years Combined

Climate Progress
California Installed More Rooftop Solar In 2013 Than Previous 30 Years Combined

Kiley Kroh

Ari Phillips — Ford Debuts New Car That Saves Each Driver Four Metric Tons Of Greenhouse Gas Per Year

That's a state of the art solar panel on the roof.

Climate Progress
Ford Debuts New Car That Saves Each Driver Four Metric Tons Of Greenhouse Gas Per Year

Ari Phillips

John Aziz — Get ready for a massive renewable energy boom

Renewables are projected to be the fastest growing source of energy over the next 30 years. And that's a conservative estimate.

The Week
Get ready for a massive renewable energy boom
John Aziz

AFP — Game changer? Chinese scientists create window that generates energy

Scientists in China said Thursday they had designed a “smart” window that can both save and generate energy, and may ultimately reduce heating and cooling costs for buildings....Gao’s team discovered that a material called vanadium oxide (VO2) can be used as a transparent coating to regulate infrared radiation from the Sun.

VO2 changes its properties based on temperature. Below a certain level it is insulating and lets through infrared light, while at another temperature it becomes reflective.

A window in which VO2 was used could regulate the amount of Sun energy entering a building, but also scatter light to solar cells the team had placed around their glass panels, where it was used to generate energy with which to light a lamp, for example.

“This smart window combines energy-saving and generation in one device, and offers potential to intelligently regulate and utilise solar radiation in an efficient manner,” the study authors wrote in the journal Nature Scientific Reports.

The Raw Story
Game changer? Chinese scientists create window that generates energy
Agence France-Presse

Joe Romm — Must-See Chart: Cost Of PV Cells Has Dropped An Amazing 99% Since 1977, Bringing Solar Power To Grid Parity

Climate Progress

Must-See Chart: Cost Of PV Cells Has Dropped An Amazing 99% Since 1977, Bringing Solar Power To Grid Parity

Joe Romm

Jonathan Larson — Ikea to start selling solar panels at UK stores

This is a solar story with all the great elements. It is proof positive that solar has moved out of the experimental stage. For years I have advised people to follow the Home Depot rule "Don't buy any technology until they start selling it in places—like Home Depot—used to dealing with the problems of the general public." Well, Ikea certainly qualifies. This is really a big deal because MOST Ikea customers are barely qualified to assemble a desk much less install solar panels on a roof and hooking them into the electrical systems—no matter how reliable or cost effective the panels themselves may be. After all, I once heard someone describe assembling a couple of Ikea kitchen cabinets as an "ordeal."

My guess is that Ikea will be providing more detailed installation manuals than their typical pictograph instructions. In fact, they will probably recommend professional installers. Even so, solar is well on its way towards being a normal player in the energy mix. I have been waiting a very long time for this day.

real economics
Ikea to start selling solar panels at UK stores
Jonathan Larson

Sebastian Anthony — Thorium nuclear reactor trial begins, could provide cleaner, safer, almost-waste-free energy

Good news on the tech and energy front.

Extreme Tech
Thorium nuclear reactor trial begins, could provide cleaner, safer, almost-waste-free energy
Sebastian Anthony

See also Sebastian Anthony, Corning Willow Glass used to make flexible solar power roofing shingles, could lower the cost of solar power significantly

Jeff Spross — Two-For-One: A New Solar Dish Delivers Low-Cost Electricity Along With Fresh Water

 According to IBM, the HCPVT is built from unusually low-cost materials, meaning the per area price of setting it up is significantly lower than comparable solar systems, as is the cost per kilowatt hour....

Just one square meter of receiver area in the HCPVT system can provide 30 to 40 liters of drinkable water per day — about half the needed daily amount for the average person, according to the United Nations. The researchers think a large array of the dishes could produce enough fresh water to sustain a town. On top of that, the system can even provide air conditioning, using an absorption chiller rather than the standard compression chiller...

The long-term vision is to build arrays in areas of southern Europe, Africa, the Arabic Peninsula, South America, Australia, and the southwestern United States — places that are remote, dry, and in need of both affordable sustainable energy and greater supplies of drinking water.

Climate Progress
Two-For-One: A New Solar Dish Delivers Low-Cost Electricity Along With Fresh Water
Jeff Spross

Brian McConnell — Solar Energy : This Is What A Disruptive Technology Looks Like

Medium.com
Solar Energy : This Is What A Disruptive Technology Looks Like

Brian McConnell
(h/t Energy Bulletin)

David Roberts — Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities

Solar power and other distributed renewable energy technologies could lay waste to U.S. power utilities and burn the utility business model, which has remained virtually unchanged for a century, to the ground.

That is not wild-eyed hippie talk. It is the assessment of the utilities themselves.

 Grist
Solar panels could destroy U.S. utilities, according to U.S. utilities
David Roberts

Jeff Spross — Solar Report Stunner: Unsubsidized ‘Grid Parity Has Been Reached In India’, Italy–With More Countries Coming in 2014

Deutsche Bank just released new analyses concluding that global solar market will become sustainable on its own terms by the end of 2014, no longer needing subsidies to continue performing.The German-based bank said that rooftop solar is looking especially robust, and sees strong demand in solar markets in India, China, Britain, Germany, India, and the United States. As a result, Deutsche Bank actually increased its forecast for solar demand in 2013 to 30 gigawatts — a 20 percent increase over 2012.

Climate Progress

Solar Report Stunner: Unsubsidized ‘Grid Parity Has Been Reached In India’, Italy–With More Countries Coming in 2014

Jeff Spross

Vince Font — A Look Back at Solar Energy in 2012

2012 was a big year for solar, both domestically and globally, with some unlikely players throwing their hats into the ring and upping the ante on achievable power generating capacity. Here's a wrap-up of some of the year's most impactful events in the solar industry, with a little added perspective from some experts in the field.

Renewable Energy
A Look Back at Solar Energy in 2012
Vince Font
(h/t Climate Progress)

Some good news. It's happening in spite of some bankruptcies and industry consolidation.

“Falling pricing is a double edged sword. It’s great for deployment, it’s great for the consumer, and it’s caused greater amounts of solar installation. On the other hand, falling prices have yielded smaller margins for manufacturers, making it tougher to survive in a very competitive climate.”...

In the United States, 2012 showed evidence that growth in the solar industry occurred at a much faster rate than other industries. According to The Solar Foundation’s National Solar Jobs Census report, U.S. employment in the solar industry grew at a rate of 13.2 percent and the sector added 13,872 jobs in 2012, while Bureau of Labor statistics indicated that solar accounted for 1 out of every 230 jobs created.

This information may seem to fly in the face of the numerous solar company bankruptcies and consolidations that have taken place globally in the last year, but according to Kimbis, that’s par for the course in an emerging industry

“It’s just like any other industry,” Kimbis said. “Competition is extreme. This is something that the industry has known about for awhile; companies have been bracing for global competition for the last several years. It’s a story which has repeated itself through everything from personal computing, to telecom, to the automobile industry.”