Showing posts with label yen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label yen. Show all posts

Thursday, November 22, 2018

Bill Mitchell — Japan still to slip in the sea under its central bank debt burden

President Trump banned a CNN reporter only to find his position overturned by the judicial system. Well CNN is guilty of at least one thing – publishing misleading and alarmist economic reports about Japan. In a CNN Business article last week (November 13, 2018) – Japan’s economy has a $5 trillion problem – readers were told that the Bank of Japan has no “dwindling options to juice growth if a new crisis hits” because “it’s now sitting on assets worth more than the country’s entire economy”. The real story should have been that the Bank of Japan continues to demonstrate the categorical failure of mainstream macroeconomics and, conversely, ratify the core principles of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). That is what the Japanese experience since the early 1990s tells us. And all the stories about special cases; cultural peculiarities, closed markets, etc that the mainstream economists wheel out when another one of their predictions about how Japan is about to sink into the sea as a result of its public debt levels, or that interest rates are about to go through the roof because of the on-going and substantial fiscal deficits; or that inflation is about to accelerate because of the massive monetary injections; and more, are just smokescreens to divert our attention from the poverty of their analytical framework. The Japanese 10-year bond trade is called the ‘widow maker’ because hedge funds who try to short it lose big. The Japanese monetary system is my real-time, non-linear economic laboratory which allows all the key macroeconomic propositions to play out live. And MMT is never very far off the mark. Try juxtaposing New Keynesian theory against Japan – total dissonance....
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Japan still to slip in the sea under its central bank debt burden
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia

Monday, January 15, 2018

Since Trump, US dollar is getting killed.

Trump may be reveling in the stock market's gains since his election victory, but the dollar is going in the other direction. It is getting killed.

When Trump was elected the Dollar Index was at 98. Now it's at 90. Dollar/yen was at 118, now it's at 110. Euro/dollar was at 1.04, now it's at 1.23. British pound was at 1.23, now it's at 1.37. Canadian dollar was at 1.36, now it's at 1.24.

Trump has been a disaster for the dollar.

What's more, the dollar's fall is still in its early stages. With his monkey idiot Treasury Secretary, Steve Mnuchin, and the endless sanctions on everybody--the literal weaponization of the US dollar--these fools have set in motion a powerful trend of global "de-dollarization."

It is becoming plainly obvious to countries and institutions around the world that the risk of being shut out of the global, dollar-based transaction and clearing system is too great so alternatives are being sought. This is one explanation for the rise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrenices. You can also see it in newly emerging bilateral agreements between nations, such as China and Russia, where transactions and trade are being conducted in ruble and yuan.

Add to this the fiscal stimulus of the tax cuts (money printing) and the Fed's rate hikes which they stupidly believe squash inflation. (5 rate hikes since Dec 2015 and inflation up, dollar down, gold up, oil up.)

It's over for the dollar. Trump and Mnuchin...the tag team that will destroy the dollar.

Get short, everybody. Get short.

Thursday, April 28, 2016

The yen rally this morning is ridiculous

stupid traders sell usdjpy
Huh???

As you know I have been bullish on the yen for a while and it has rallied for the past three months, but two weeks ago I said to sell it and we caught a nice, 400 pip profit going short.

This was all based on strategic, calm, trading and an MMT understanding of what was happening.

However, we just saw something earlier today that shows you why people lose money. The yen surged because the BOJ decided to keep monetary policy unchanged. So?

That unleashed a massive 300 point move down in USDJPY.

People trade like this?

Yup. And that's why you can make so much money, trading against emotional, clueless, fools.

The lack of action by the Bank of Japan does not change the fact that Japan is putting through a major fiscal stimulus. They "front loaded" all their public works' spending ot the first half of their 2016 fiscal year (Apr-Sep, basically). It's about a $110b equivalent of spending. And they are probably going to pass a supplemental budget to deal with the recent earthquake.

What does this mean? It probably means USDJPY goes back up again and the fools who sold this pair this morning, on nothing, will get their money taken from them. That's as it should be.

Wednesday, April 20, 2016

USDJPY flying now. I called it April 7 when Japan announced its fiscal stimulus.

In my MMT Trader report of April 7, I recommended going long USDJPY. That trade now has a 200 pip profit.

That week, Japanese Prime Minister, Shinzo Abe, announced that the government would "front load" the nation's public works' spending to the first half of FY 2016, which has just begun.

Fiscal stimulus. Bearish for yen.

The yen had a huge rally leading up to that announcement. It started around Jan 28 when the BOJ went, stupidly, to negative interest rates. That move was intended to push the yen down, but it did the opposite.

The yen's rally attracted a lot of speculative long positions in the futures market. Spec longs hit the highest level in four years. Clearly, the yen was due for a selloff and the fiscal stimulus was the signal I was looking for.

Last week Japan suffered another terrible earthquake and now there is discussion of a supplemental budget for cleanup and reconstruction. This was also covered in the MMT Trader report.

By the way, it also recommended buying Japanese indices or stocks--some ADR's traded on U.S. exchanges.

Get a 30-day free trial to the MMT Trader.

Thursday, August 27, 2015

Gonna short USDJPY pretty soon

The dollar is experiencing a bounce along with stocks after getting crushed over the past week. I don't know about the euro, which may very well head lower as it's doing now, however, I think the dollar's break all the way down to 116 yen on Monday signals a change in trend.

I have been looking for the yen to rally based on a couple of factors, one being the steep drop in oil prices and the other, the fact that after four years Japan has begun restarting their nuclear reactors.

Right now I am looking for a level  to short USDJPY and I think I may enter this trade around 121.28 if we get up there.

Monday, July 27, 2015

Dollar is tanking


Dollar down over 100 pips against the yen this morning. Euro is up over 1.11. Even very weak currencies like the NZ dollar are getting into the act, up 80 pips overnight.

What's causing this?

Not sure, but I have been saying that U.S. Federal Gov't spending has been slowing. This may be starting to be felt through purchase/supply channels, etc. Forex markets reacting.

As for the euro, I don't think there is huge upside because if the U.S. economy weakens as a result of a spending slowdown, then European exporters will start cutting prices again. Furthermore, Greece is not out of the woods; it just bought some time with the new bailout deal.

Anyway, I am a trader. If the dollar is falling now I am shorting it. By the way...my short USDJPY position, which I have had on for two weeks is near turning a profit now.

Tuesday, July 14, 2015

The Iran deal, oil and the yen


The pundits are going crazy with this new Iran deal and they're talking about much lower oil prices going forward.

Iran ranks seventh in the world in terms of production capacity with about a 3.4 million barrel per day of output capability and it ranks fourth in the world in proven reserves with 158 billion barrels.

Some analysts are calling for a $10 $20 price range, eventually, in light of this deal. Maybe that's too low, I'm not sure, however, it's hard to argue against the longer term bearish outlook.

So what does that mean for the yen? There is a pretty good inverse correlation between the yen and oil prices so I think this could be a seminal event. It may very well mark the bottom in the yen's three year decline.

I think you have to be long the yen as a macro trade right now. The risk/reward on this seems very attractive.

Friday, June 19, 2015

Dollar/yen getting slammed. I'm short, which is nice, but wondering whether or not this has something to do with Greece?

Dollar/Yen getting slammed in the last hour. I am short thanks to my trading strategies and other analyses, but wondering if this has something to do with growing angst over Greece?


Thursday, April 9, 2015

Euro getting crushed

This is a shout out to Matt Franko, who contributes to this blog and who has CONSISTENTLY been right on the euro (and yen, Canada, etc) all along because of a correct understanding that IT'S ABOUT PRICE NOT QUANTITY!!!

(It's also not about "technicals" or charts, btw.)

Someone sets the price and Matt has been telling us, no, SHOWING US, exactly who: non-dollar exporters. (i.e. German exporters, Japanese exporters, Canadian exporters, etc.)

This is how it works, people.

Kudos, Matt. Don't give this info out anymore, just trade it and make yourself a fortune!

Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Daily Treasury Statement predicting HUGE jobs number on Friday

If you took my course, Understanding the Daily Treasury Statement, you would know why I am making this call, now, three days before the release of that number. I am telling you this: it will be far better than expectations.

I am not going to tell you how I know this, but I know. You will have to sign up for the next course to learn how to get this information plus lots of other, very powerful, money making tips and insights from this amazing resource. I am the only one who teaches this.

Consider this a gift--my gift to you, so don't waste it; go make yourself some (a lot) of money.

The number will blow away the 240k expected gain in nonfarm  payrolls. BLOW. IT. AWAY.

So, what  do you do?  You buy the dollar (short euro, yen, British pound, Aussie dollar, etc), sell bonds, sell gold and sell stocks. On the latter, I know it seem counterintuitive because, obviously, a strong jobs number is bullish news for the economy and therefore bullish for stocks, however, the way the market has been trading, i.e. with intense fear of an imminent rate hike, they'll probably hit the stock market in reaction to a strong number. On the other hand, longer term investors should use this as an opportunity to add to long stock positions.

Enjoy.

-Mike Norman
#itsnotaboutthedeficit

Monday, December 15, 2014

Brian Romanchuk — The 'Widowmaker' And Yen Crash Theories

There has been a recent shift amongst those predicting the collapse of the Japanese economy to switch away from the so-called "widowmaker trade" - short Japanese Government Bonds (JGBs) - towards forecasts of a collapse in the Japanese yen (pictured above). Although this may result from learning a lesson from roughly two decades of failed "JGB collapse" predictions, I suspect that this is the result of learning the wrong things. Being structurally short the yen is hardly the safest trade in the world either.…
Bond Economics
The 'Widowmaker' And Yen Crash Theories
Brian Romanchuk

Tuesday, December 9, 2014

Podcast for Tuesday, Dec 9

Low level Madoff aide gets jail time. Criminal Wall Street bankers, NOT. More Debt Doomsday stupidity. What happens when the robots make everything?

Tuesday, Dec 9.

Wednesday, October 1, 2014

Here we go...dollar's 5-month bull run may be over

Weakening economic data, falling US bond yields, stock market starting to look shaky and HUMONGOUS short positions in euro, yen and other currencies. The dollar's 5-month rally may finally be over. And uwinding of those currency shorts could get bloody.

The market giveth (to the funds) and the market taketh away.

Thursday, September 18, 2014

Reuters — Japan government cuts economic view, warns of stalling consumption

Japan's government cut its overall economic assessment for the first time in five months as private consumption is struggling to recover from the slump caused by April's sales tax hike, clouding the outlook for a sustained recovery.
The government on Friday cut its view on private consumption, which accounts for about 60 percent of the economy, saying that consumer spending is seen pausing although a pick-up trend remains intact.
The assessment followed a run of weak indicators, including falling household spending, which raised doubt about the strength of an expected bounce in the current quarter - a crucial factor for Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's decision in December on whether to proceed with a second tax rise next year.
Just like we said, and just like last time a tax hike was tried.

And did austerity help the yen?

Oops.


Should stimulate their export market though and give some foreign firms heartburn.

Reuters
Japan government cuts economic view, warns of stalling consumption

Wednesday, March 19, 2014

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I have recently taken on an account of a very well known person and that account is up 30% so far in 3 weeks!

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Sunday, March 9, 2014

Still time to sign up for my Forex course that starts tomorrow!

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Monday, June 10, 2013

John Mauldin's taking out a yen loan to pay for his Dallas apartment

John Mauldin writes this weekly commentary, Thoughts From the Frontline, which is always horribly out of paradigm.

Now it looks like he's taking out a loan in yen to pay for his house in Dallas, TX.

This makes me want to go long the yen soooooo bad, I barely can hold myself back.

Look at Mauldin's ridiculous comments:

"The Japanese are in a situation where their only real path out (of a shrinking economy) is to devalue the Yen," Mauldin says in the attached video. "This is a country that is going on sale."

In fact, he's not only predicting the Dollar/Yen will slump to 200 versus the U.S. dollar in the next 5 years, he says he is planning to hedge his entire mortgage to Japan's weakening currency in hopes of paying for his new Dallas apartment.

"The country is dying. People are retiring," he says, adding that by the time "Abenomics" has run its course, "you'll be able to buy a Lexus cheaper than a Kia."

Further complicating their comeback is what he calls the "Demographics of Doom," which highlights the growing ratio of the country's retirees compared to those actively working. "When you're at debt-to-GDP of 245% you're beginning to run up against your limit to borrow money at rational interest rates," he says, defending the country's decision and course, yet he's also certain that "it doesn't end well."

"Run up against your limit to borrow." Haaaa!!!! Japan OWNS the yen. It doesn't borrow it. Same mistake they all make--Mauldin, Bass, Rogers, Schiff...all of these idiots.

What's incredible is that the truth is very much out there now. It's amazing that these guys keep repeating the same, tired, inapplicable story.

By the way, the only real thing weighing on the yen has been Japan's trade deficit, but that has now swung back to surplus, which means that Mauldin might end up paying a lot more for his apartment.




Friday, May 17, 2013

Marshall Auerback on Japan and China

But the trickle could soon turn into a flood. The speculators of the world have been told by the new head of the BOJ, Haruhiko Kuroda, that they can now speculate with borrowed yen which has not only no cost but no currency risk. The borrowings, then, could be infinite. The foreigners increased their holdings of Japanese Government Bonds from four percent to nine percent in the two years before the break. No doubt much of that was sold on the break.
And the BOJ may well lose control of the pace of the descent in both the yen and JGB market. The Japanese domestics with a lag might start to sell big time. The faster and farther the yen falls the more likely that will happen. The situation is now very unstable. A deeper fall in the yen is going to force all of emerging Asia into a devaluation and that is gong to cause big problems down the road in places like Europe, particularly Germany.
Pinetree Capital — Macrobits
Are Japanese Investors Starting To Yen For Foreign Currencies?
Marshall Auerback

Marshall speculates on China being forced into an RMB devaluation due to the falling yen.

Friday, February 1, 2013

Marshall Auerback — Get ready for a world of global competitive currency devaluations

It seems like all of the major players are at the starting lines, all set to kick off a new round of competitive devaluations. On your marks, get set…
Macrobits
Get ready for a world of global competitive currency devaluations
Marshall Auerback
(h/t Kevin Fathi via email)

Wednesday, December 26, 2012

Warren Mosler — yen tailspin?


With Fukushima down, Japan needs to import more oil, putting pressure on the yen.

The Center of the Universe
yen tailspin?
Warren Mosler