Stock picking course combined with MMT principles

Are you confused or daunted by stock picking? Do you rely on clueless or high-priced stock brokers or tips from friends? Do you buy companies that are losing money, pay no dividends, then watch as your stocks fall back and never recover?

Do you buy when prices are rising instead of when they're "on sale?"

I am going to tell you something that may sound hard to believe, but it's true: stock picking is easy.

Picking good, high quality dividend paying stocks at deep discounts is incredibly easy and not at all time consuming.

That alone should be good enough, but when you combine stock picking with MMT and the knowledge of government spending flows then the stock market becomes an amazing wealth creating machine.

I have created a seminar that teaches stock selection combined with the principles of MMT and government spending flows right from the Daily Treasury Statement.

You take this course, you learn these methods and I guarantee you the stock market will not only become a great wealth generator for you, but something that will be extremely fun as a pastime or hobby.

I LOVE investing in stocks. I LOVE taking money away from people who don't know what they're doing and who get all emotional. And I do all of this with literally ZERO stress.

If you have any interest in stock investing whatsoever and if growing your wealth is something you're interested in then you absolutely MUST take my course next Friday.

The course fee is $595, but if you email me now I will give you a coupon worth $100 off.

Or you can just fill out this form and tell me you would like to enroll and you want the $100 discount.

See you in class!

IRS computer glitch a problem.Throws economy into peril. Stock market could be looking at fresh lows

The IRS computer glitch that occurred 10 days ago is a problem. Tax refunds are not going out. Spending has dropped down sharply versus last year. It had been up, modestly, but now it's fallen off and it's not obvious that the economy can handle any gov't spending pullback now when people are really on the defensive. Data from the Daily Treasury Statement does not show tax refunds picking up very much. Stock market could be looking at fresh lows.

Treasury issuance is collapsing. A liquidity crisis is coming!

So here's what's happening. There is a massive Treasury shortage because of the austerity, debt ceiling, and the huge reduction in the deficit. We talked about the liquidity crisis that hit the banking system a few weeks ago. The Fed had to inject nearly $700 billion of Treasuries into the market in a single week because of a shortage.

Look at these tables. Last fiscal year (just concluded, Sep 30) the Treasury redeemed $60.4 trillion of Treasuries while it issued $60.8 trillion. That was a mere, $400 billion of net new supply.

FY 2015

Now look at this...

FY 2014

In contrast, look at fiscal year 2014. Treasury redeemed $68.7 trillion, but it issued $69.8 trillion for a net addition of $1.1 trillion.

Issuance has collapsed and it's about to collapse further because we're hitting the debt ceiling. The Fed will be forced to conduct massive repo's, perhaps exhausting its holdings quickly.

Treasury just made a $37 billion interest payment the other day. In one day!

Treasury just made a quarterly  interest payment: $37 billion. That's money paid to people.

Who's talking about this? No one, except  right here on Mike Norman Economics.

Like Matt Franko has been pointing out, interest paid is not an economic drag. It's an economic stimulus. When the Fed raises rates watch everything take off, stocks, the economy, inflation, etc. Not the dollar, though.

Keep in mind that while Treasury made that quarterly payment, the same quarterly payment was made last year, just slightly less. ($36.5 billion) so year-over-year spending comparisons remain pretty much where they've been since May. FY 2015 up $100b over FY 2014.

Special Offer limited time only...my Understanding the Daily Treasury Statement course on video for $99

I am offering my Understanding the Daily Treasury Statement Course on video for the low price of $99. This is for a LIMITED TIME ONLY!

Get the full, six hour course, which explains all the ins and outs of the most concise, leading, economic resource anywhere. It is put out daily by the U.S. Treasury.

You will literally be able to see the checking account of the United States Government at the close of business every single day.

Not only that, but in my course I will teach you how to track and forecast the billions, tens of billions, hundreds of billions and, yes, even trillions, that flow between the U.S. Treasury and the banking system and the economy on a daily basis.

This is like having inside information, only totally legal. If you know that the government of the United States will be moving tens of billions into the banking system tomorrow or, a TRILLION this month, you can surely make money trading off of this information. These flows affect all markets!

Or, if nothing else, you will become  one amazing economic forecaster...better than any mainstream economist out there.

I will show you how to develop accurate forecasts the economy using these flows and how to forecast market movements.  The best part of all this is, NO ONE OUT THERE USES THIS INFORMATION BECAUSE VERY FEW EVEN KNOW ABOUT IT!

Each day you will see:

• All items of government spending, daily, monthly, yearly
• All items of revenue, daily, monthly and yearly
• Public debt sales
• Public debt redemptions
• Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid payments
• Employment tax deposits
• The debt ceiling

Plus...I will show you how to calculate the government surplus or deficit even before it is released officially.

And much, much, more.

So don’t waste time. You have a limited time only to buy this video course for only $99.

Here’s what one student said about the course:

“Every business school, financial newspaper, and business media outlest ought to make it a required course.” -Jane

To get the course click the button below. All major credit cards and Paypal accepted.

Here's why the jobs number tomorrow may be terrible

Checking out the Daily Treasury Statement for May 29, last business day of May we see government took in $169.2 billion in employment tax deposits. Employment tax deposits are withholding and FICA, which flow to the Treasury when a) more people are working on a payroll and/or; b) their incomes go up. Both are indications of an improving job market.

That $169.2 billion of payroll tax collected was $8.9 billion below the level collected in April, so right there is not a good sign, however, in the past six years 2010-2015, May employment taxes were below those collected in April so there could be something seasonal with that. (Who knows? More accountants working in April??)

That's the "good" news. The bad news is that the current May decline was the largest April-May drop in employment tax collections since 2010. By the way, the only April-May increase in employment tax deposits in the last six years was in 2011 and that was only, $1.7 billion.

There's more bad news, unfortunately. The overall rate of Federal Government spending has suddenly dropped off sharply. On May 27 total Federal Gov't spending for the FY 2015 was $117 billion above the same time last year and it's been $90 billion or above since late March. Now, all of a sudden it has suddenly dropped to $72 billion over 2014, a marked deceleration.

This is not good.

So if you want to trade the jobs number tomorrow in Forex, I would short the dollar going into this data release. (8:30am ET.)

Stocks will also be hurt by a weak number, at least initially. They could recover if the bond market rallies, which I believe it will, however, signs of a weakening economy would not sit well with stocks.

Fiscal snapshot: April ends with $373 billion in spending. Not bad, but some dark clouds are gathering.

Okay, so here's the end of April fiscal snapshot. It's not great news. It's not a disaster (yet), but it's not great in my opinion.

For the month of April the Federal Government spent $373 billion. That surpassed last April by $3 billion. Year-over-year Federal spending is up by $91 billion. That's the good news. We're on track at this pace to hit, almost, $4.3 trillion in total top-line spending for the fiscal year. That would be the first real increase since 2009.

That's good.

Here's the problem: Spending is stalling. Just about a month ago we were $110 billion over last year. The pace of spending over FY 2014 is slowing. This is not surprising because since mid-March Treasury has been running under  the debt ceiling constraint. These idiots in Congress still have not done anything  on the debt ceiling or the budget and who knows what kinds of measures, if any, Lew is using to pay the bills and that may not be able to last forever.

Furthermore, both CBO and OMB were predicting closer to $200 billion in spending above last year. We're coming in nowhere near that. I'm sure the morons over at Fix the Debt are elated. Jerks.

Now for the bad news (if you listen to other MMT economists). The deficit through the fiscal year so far is a paltry $252 billion. That's only 1.4% of GDP. The freakin' budget is almost in balance. The White House should be popping champagne corks, but they're too stupid to realize and also too stupid to understand that this is unequivocally NOT a good thing. Morons as well.

The top-line stall in spending is worrisome, at least to  me. Without a concomitant increase in non-government indebtedness, then it could mean trouble for the economy/stocks. Furthermore, higher private sector debt accumulation is not anything to cheer about, except maybe if you're a banker. It's just that we can go a while before debt service levels reach the tipping point, like where they were in 2007.

All data from the Daily Treasury Statement, of course. Remember, I teach a course on this, so if you want to learn how to do all this analysis and be able to read that Daily Treasury Statement then sign up for my course. It's well worth it. There's one coming up this Saturday. It's online. If you want to enroll please go to the link below.

Daily Treasury Statement course, Saturday, May 9.

Inflation is about to pick up. This time it's real.

We saw a small uptick in the CPI for March this morning, but the real issue here and the one not reported (you will only get it here), is that we are going to experience the first significant increase in government spending this year in six years.

My projections, based on all the data on Federal spending (from the DTS) so far this fiscal year, and the rate of spending, is that we will hit $4.38 trillion. That would be a $200 billion increase from the prior year.

Here is a graph with the projection for this year.

The only other increase in spending that we saw was in 2013 and that was only $20 billion over 2012. So this year's increase is serious.

Government spending is different from central bank monetary operations. The former adds to net financial  assets ("printing money"), while the latter is only an asset swap. That's why all the "inflationista's" got it wrong these past years. It was because they believed monetary operations were money printing. It's not.

Therefore, based on this development here is my outlook...

• The top is in for the dollar. It's going down.
• Bonds are headed lower. Rates will go up and YES, the Fed will raise rates this year, possibly even in June.
• Stocks will continue to climb for a while until rates get high enough to siphon away investment (and we're still a long way from that).
• Gold will rally.
• Commodities and oil have bottomed.

P.S. Some may claim that they predicted, all along, that the euro would rally, but that would be false.

Workers pay 6 times more in taxes than corporations and get nothing while Conservatives demand more corporate tax cuts!

Conservatives call incessantly for corporate tax cuts. Never mind the fact that corporate profits are at an all-time record high and also garner an ever increasing share of GDP. In other words, more and more of our national wealth flows to profits, which is then grabbed up by corporate executives (CEO's), Wall Street and shareholders.

The rest of us get pretty much nothing for our efforts and it is WE who do all the working and making of the stuff that gets produced.

The call for corporate tax cuts, therefore, is completely incongruous with the national discussion of wealth and income inequality. Yet it goes on.

The demand grows even more brazen and obscene (if that's possible) when you look at just how much corporations are paying in taxes compared to what the rest of us (workers) pay.

Once again, I am pulling from the Daily Treasury Statement (BTW...next course in April 25).

Table IV, Daily Treasury Statement for FY 2014. All figures are in millions $.

You can see that the total tax take for the Federal Government in 2014 was $2.599 trillion.

Of that, $2.07 trillion was in the form of employment taxes. That means people who work for a paycheck. Workers. That's who paid most of the taxes.

Corporations paid $345 billion.

So workers paid 6 times more taxes than corporations AND THEY GOT NOTHING, yet Conservatives want corporations to pay less and Obama, along with Conservatives, raised employment taxes and continue to propose or institute spending cuts, which are fiscally the same thing as tax increases, which fall mostly on workers.

In light of this, is there really any reason why we are trying to figure out the cause of income and wealth inequality? Seriously? The wealth is being PURPOSELY AND BLATANTLY funneled to the top.

Corporations pay next to nothing and WE pay nearly all.

Big miss on the jobs report

The jobs report was a huge miss at 124k. I predicted that it would exceed forecasts by a large amount based on employment tax deposit data from the Daily Treasury Statement. Those numbers were HUGE for March, but I guess for some reason it didn't correlate.

What I can say, however, is that the average hourly earnings increased at a pace twice as fast as the monthly increase over the past three years. So the DTS numbers at least picked that up. Remember: a rise in employment tax deposits can come from more people working, OR, people earning more money.

The only thing I can say is that the jobs report is based on surveys and that means it is a "guesstimate." I was working off hard data. The employment report is frequently revised and that may be the case for this one next month, who knows?

All I can say is that it was a big disappointment. Dollar back in downtrend now as expectations of early Fed rate hike recede.

Daily Treasury Statement predicting HUGE jobs number on Friday

If you took my course, Understanding the Daily Treasury Statement, you would know why I am making this call, now, three days before the release of that number. I am telling you this: it will be far better than expectations.

I am not going to tell you how I know this, but I know. You will have to sign up for the next course to learn how to get this information plus lots of other, very powerful, money making tips and insights from this amazing resource. I am the only one who teaches this.

Consider this a gift--my gift to you, so don't waste it; go make yourself some (a lot) of money.

The number will blow away the 240k expected gain in nonfarm  payrolls. BLOW. IT. AWAY.

So, what  do you do?  You buy the dollar (short euro, yen, British pound, Aussie dollar, etc), sell bonds, sell gold and sell stocks. On the latter, I know it seem counterintuitive because, obviously, a strong jobs number is bullish news for the economy and therefore bullish for stocks, however, the way the market has been trading, i.e. with intense fear of an imminent rate hike, they'll probably hit the stock market in reaction to a strong number. On the other hand, longer term investors should use this as an opportunity to add to long stock positions.

Enjoy.

-Mike Norman
#itsnotaboutthedeficit

Understanding the Daily Treasury Statement course is tomorrow. You can still sign up!

If you haven't already signed up for this course you should. Having a grasp of this data is invaluable if you are a trader, investor, business owner, forecaster or just someone wanting to know the truth about our national finances. (Or make money in the markets.)

Very few people know of this information and even fewer know how to use it to make money.

The course is tomorrow. 10am - 4pm ET. It's online using Cisco's Webex. No special software needed. Just an internet connection. You will also get a recording of the coures. The fee is $225.

Enroll here:

Since 1998 Treasury has issued $719 TRILLION of debt. And guess what? Dollar strong, rates at zero.

Using the data from the Daily Treasury Statement archives it is possible to see exactly how much debt the U.S. has issued since 1998. (The DTS archives go back to 1998.)

Since 1998 the U.S. government  has issued $719 TRILLION of debt. That's 719 T-R-I-L-L-I-O-N. This is not a typo.

And guess what?

Interest rates are at zero and the dollar is very strong.

Of course we know that all that debt is just really dollars. So another way to say it is that since 1998 the U.S. Treasury PRINTED $719 trillion dollars.

And guess what? No inflation.

We also know that the government redeemed (paid back) all but $18 trillion of that debt. So it "paid back" $701 trillion.

The $18 trillion (what everyone is hysterical about--our national "debt") we got to hold on to.

That's all this debt nonsense is about.

Here is the year-by-year breakdown of how much debt was issued. It's right from the Treasury's own statement. I am not making this up. I just put the numbers in a spreadsheet. By the way, these data only go back to 1998 as I said, however, if you went back to the birth of the Republic, that is, 1789, the total issuance would surely be in the quadrillions and again, no collapse, no skyrocketing interest rates, no inflation.

Image: Treasury issuance in millions $

Still time to sign up for my March 28, "Daily Treasury Statement" course

I wanted to remind everyone that there's still time to sign up for my, "Understanding the Daily Treasury Statement" course. I'll be giving it on Saturday, March 28. It's a full day of instruction that will be covering the "ins and outs" of this incredibly important resource. 

To sign up or, to find out more about the course here.

-Mike Norman

I will be giving another Daily Treasury Statement course March 28. Don't miss it!

Please be aware that I am giving another, "Understanding the Daily Treasury Statement" course on Saturday, March 28. You can find out more about it here. 

The Daily Treasury Statement is a resource that very few people know about, but it has enormous importance. It is literally the checkbook of the United States Government. Released every day at 4pm ET, it lists every single item of expenditure and revenue flowing into and out of the U.S. Treasury and by definition, into and out of our domestic economy and the rest of the world.

These flows amount to blllions and sometimes hundreds of billions per day and they provide incredibly "actionable" information. That's because this tsunami of money ends up driving the markets--stocks, bonds, currencies, gold, commodities, oil...you name it.

Moreover, since the data is released every single day it is the most real-time economic data and market moving information that there is. While others track monthly economic releases and get a snapshot of the past, the Daily Treasury Statement literally tells you what is GOING to happen in the future, the only catch being, you have know how to interpret it.

I have spent years studying this data and I have learned how to decipher its nuances and unlock its secrets. I decided to give this course to help people make money off its invaluable information.

Earlier this month two students who took my class both initiated a position right before the release of the March 6th jobs report. They did that because the Daily Treasury Statement predicted a stronger then expected result and that's exactly what happened.

Here's what they said:

"Short AUS/USD and EUR/USD positions at 8:20, took profit at 8:35.  Thanks, Daily Treasury Statement!" 

And this...

"It's fun watching the markets have a collective freak out while thinking 'yawn.... that information is SOOO last week....'  The prices dropped so fast it took 20 minutes for me to get the text message that I had taken profit."

I guarantee you will be amazed at what you will see when you take this course and delve into the awesome finances of the United States of America. The numbers are mind-boggling, but more importantly, they give you incredible information that is translatable to real trading profits.

And even if you don't trade or invest, you will learn things that most people are not aware of, giving you a huge advantage in any debate or conversation.

The course fee is $225. Saturday, March 28, 10am to 4pm New York time. The class is recorded so you can download it for future review.

To enroll, please click the button below or, email me for more info.

-Mike Norman

Students of my Daily Treasury Statement class scored in the currency market on Friday!

The Daily Treasury Statement forecast the stronger than expected jobs report last Friday. Students in my course were long the dollar going into that report. They scored big.

The Daily Treasury Statement contains the most up to date, relevant information that can affect the economy and the markets.

Do you think you can make money when you know that billions or tens of billions or even hundreds of billions are going to be moving in an out of the economy on any given day? You better believe you can.

When I was a floor trader we used to do everything we could to find out where the big orders were because money moves the markets and the biggest PLAYER with the biggest MONEY is the U.S. government.

Learn how to use this valuable data. Whether you trade or invest in stocks, bonds, commodities, gold or, Forex or whether you simply want to get a handle on the economy and where it's going, this course and the vital information in the Daily Treasury Statement will give you an incredible edge.

Next Daily Treasury Statement course is Saturday, March 28. Enroll today!

Here's what I wrote on Monday, March 2, with respect to today's jobs number

On Monday, March 2, I put up a post where I went over the massive, $460 billion spending outlay for February and specifically spoke about the employment tax data and what that likely meant for today's jobs number release.

Oh yeah, one more thing...

Total employment taxes collected by the Federal gov't in Feb was $186.8b. That is down slightly from the $189.5b collected in January, however, February was a shorter month with less work days so I am hesitant to call any "weaker than expected" result for Friday's jobs number.

Consider this: Last Feb the total employment tax collection  was $177.1b and in Jan of last year it was $185b. That was an $8b differential between Feb and Jan. This year that difference was less than $3 billion, so I am calling Friday's number to be in line with expectations or stronger.

So there you have it. As I have been saying the Daily Treasury Statement, which details the flows between the Federal government and the economy is a more up-to-date and better predictor of the economy, economic trends and markets.

The people who have been focused on the change in the deficit have been wrong for more than two years. It's not about the deficit. Nor is it about making stuff "harder to get." Follow that stuff...trade/invest, you will get killed. I guarantee it. Follow flows and you will make money.

"Thanks, Daily Treasury Statement!"

Check out the quote below from a student who took my Daily Treasury Statement class last week. In the class we analyzed the employment tax deposits for the month of February and from that info we made a forecast that the jobs number would be strong and therefore, we should go long the dollar (short currencies) right before that report.

Well, the student did just that and look what happened...

"Short AUS/USD and EUR/USD positions at 8:20, took profit at 8:35.  Thanks, Daily Treasury Statement!" 

And this...

"It's fun watching the markets have a collective freak out while thinking 'yawn.... that information is SOOO last week....'  The prices dropped so fast it took 20 minutes for me to get the text message that I had taken profit."

Couldn't have said it better myself. Thanks, Daily Treasury Statement.

Watch for ads for the next course.

February ends with a massive, $460 Federal spending spree

No wonder why the stock market is flying. The data is in and February ended with a humongous, $460 billion spending spree by the Federal gov't. This surpasses last February's $459 billion injection. This may be the biggest February ever. It's certainly the biggest since I have been keeping records.

Last Friday ended with a burst of almost $56 billion in a single day. Total tax refunds for the month (individual and business) came in at $137 billion! That crushes last Feb's refunds of $133 billion. And we can expect another $60 billion in March and $50 billion in April. What a stimulus.

If the idiots in Congress don't f**k it up with the debt ceiling and budget the economy and stocks will be off to the races. Dow 20,000 like butter.

Sadly, though, the Fed will  raise rates. That's my forecast.

You  can't sell into this (stocks). Let's keep our eyes open for Congressional screw-ups mid-month, but for now this is blistering.

Dollar strong now, as it will follow bullish U.S. economic sentiment, but it adds to dollar top probabilities at some point. Bonds will be under pressure from fears of a Fed rate hike due to strong U.S. economy.

Oh yeah, one more thing...

Total employment taxes collected by the Federal gov't in Feb was $186.8b. That is down slightly from the $189.5b collected in January, however, February was a shorter month with less work days so I am hesitant to call any "weaker than expected" result for Friday's jobs number.

Consider this: Last Feb the total employment tax collection  was $177.1b and in Jan of last year it was $185b. That was an $8b differential between Feb and Jan. This year that difference was less than $3 billion, so I am calling Friday's number to be in line with expectations or stronger.

P.S. I teach all of this forecasting off the Treasury Statement  in my course. Watch out for the next one.

The information you will learn from the Daily Treasury Statement will not only make you a better investor and forecaster, it will probably shock you and maybe even make you angry!

Three more days to register for my Understanding the Daily Treasury Statement course.

Here are a few of the things you wil come to understand:

Did you know that the U.S. government “paid back” $67 TRILLION to investors LAST YEAR? And our leaders are talking about cutting Social Security to seniors because 40 years from now the SS trust fund will supposedly have a shortfall of $4 trillion?

This is in the Daily Treasury Statement. It’s from the Treasury’s own records.

Did you know that leading flows (spending) to the economy have been very strong, yet government spending as reported in the officially released GDP report shows it as being down? 

This is in the Daily Treasury Statement.

Did you know that we spend 50 times more on interest on public debt than on food stamps?

This is in the Daily Treasury Statement.

Did you know that last February, the Federal Gov’t sent out $120 billion in tax refunds? And it will do it again this February. And it happens every year?

You’ll learn this from the Daily Treasury Statement.

Do you know why there is an expression, “Sell in May and walk away?” when it comes to the stock market?

The Daily Treasury Statement will explain this seasonal effect and why it is so predictable. (And by the way, stock market investors and analysts don’t know the real reason why.)

There is so much more.

If you are an investor, trader, economist, student or just someone interested in getting some real knowledge and insight into the massive finances of our Federal Government and how it affects everything from incomes to investment to savings to the economy then this course is for you.

If you want to be able to make better economic forecasts—for your business, for yourself, for your job, for any reason—better than any computer model, PhD economist or Wall Street analyst with just a few minutes of time per day then this course is for you.

If you want to shock and astound your friends and co-workers and turn them on to information that they have never seen or heard before, making you look like someone with a secret connection deep inside the government, then this course is for you.

If you want to see how our politicians and academics and pundits lie to us or, deceive us or, show how little they really know, this course is for you.

This course will open your eyes. It might even make you mad. It surely will make you a better investor or forecaster of the economy.

Bottom line: It’s well worth the $225. Sign up today. It will change the way you see everything. I guarantee it.

-Mike Norman