An economics, investment, trading and policy blog with a focus on Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). We seek the truth, avoid the mainstream and are virulently anti-neoliberalism.
Wednesday, July 24, 2019
Zero Hedge — Russia Urges "Independence" From "Imposed World Order" Of US Financial System
More on de-dollarization. It's a matter of preserving national sovereignty and independence in the face of American imperialism and the US attempt to colonize the world. This is imposed not only militarily, either directly and indirect by threat, and subversion, but also economically and financially in a unilateral world order that is "pay to play."
Zero Hedge
Russia Urges "Independence" From "Imposed World Order" Of US Financial System
Tyler Durden
J. W. Mason — A Baker’s Dozen of Reasons Not to Worry about Government Debt
J. W. Mason's Blog
A Baker’s Dozen of Reasons Not to Worry about Government Debt
JW Mason | Assistant Professor of Economics, John Jay College, City University of New York
SouthFront Documentary On MH17 Reveals 5-Year-Long String Of Lies
SouthFront
Documentary On MH17 Reveals 5-Year-Long String Of Lies
Infrastructure
Congress maybe going to get back to creating some increased infrastructure funding after August recess:
Oh good @LeaderHoyer says #infrastructure will be dealt with when House returns in the fall. “Still need to deal with infrastructure - we’ll be doing more with that when we get back“ reports @emrwilkins Maybe baby will fittingly arrive during the next #infrastructureweek...
— Shaun Courtney (@SCourtneyDC) July 24, 2019
Almost 40% of U.S. homes are ‘free and clear’ of a mortgage
Not too shabby:
Almost 40% of U.S. homes are ‘free and clear’ of a mortgage https://t.co/GetRvr2FLd via @seattletimes
— Muusa Liinpaa (@MLiinpaa) July 23, 2019
RT China to build ‘world-class’ military in new strategy as US ‘stirs up rivalry’ between major powers
RT
China to build ‘world-class’ military in new strategy as US ‘stirs up rivalry’ between major powers
Only Enlightened Collectivism Can Save Us — Caitlin Johnstone
It can be objected that enlightened self-interest* could do it. But enlightened self-interest as viewing one's personal interest in the context of system optimality can also be seen as a form of collectivism that moderates individualism by restricting it, whereas the "correct" paradigm of self-interest is one in which individual maximization spontaneously generates Pareto optimality (even though history shows that it does not tend to do so).
My view, which is characteristic of one form of left libertarianism, is that enlightened self-interest is sufficient only if it exists in a culture whose collective consciousness is sufficient "high," that is, universal. This requires love, which, as it turns out, Democratic candidate Marianne Williamson is advocating. She is alone in this though.
Consortium News
Only Enlightened Collectivism Can Save Us
Caitlin Johnstone
see also by CJ
Caitlin Johnstone — Rogue Journalist
Eight Thoughts On Marianne Williamson
Caitlin Johnstone
The Great Reckoning
Adam White - Oliver Stone defends Russia’s ‘anti-gay propaganda’ law and asks Putin to be daughter’s godfather
The filmmaker has been friendly with the Russian president for several years
The Russian law about 'anti gay propaganda' doesn't seem that bad to me. All cultures are different, and that law suites them. It doesn't make the Russians evil, and they could be right. Russia is still a liberal culture
Vladimir Putin is believed to be godfather to Oliver Stone’s 22 year-old daughter, after transcripts from an interview between the pair revealed that Stone had taken advantage of an Orthodox Christian tradition that means no one asked to be a godparent can refuse the honour.
Pepe Escobar — How to kill 10 million Afghans and not win
Asia Times
Pepe Escobar: How to kill 10 million Afghans and not win
Nothing has Changed: Libertarians losing their $hi+
Wow the libertarian House Freakdom Caucus is really losing their shit (ALERT Art trained morons: Figurative Language, I mean they are exceedingly upset and irritated, not really having uncontrolled bowel movements...) over the Trump budget deal:
The Freedom Caucus took an official position OPPOSING the budget agreement.
— House Freedom Caucus (@freedomcaucus) July 24, 2019
Our country is rapidly approaching $23 trillion in debt. We should be negotiating a responsible budget that serves taxpayers better—not raising spending by $323 billion with no serious offsets.
Trump getting a lot of criticism from this disgraced libertarian faction of the GOP ...
If that additional $300b over the two year cycle is just the discretionary thats another $150b per year AND another thing (a bit under-reported) about the 'Deal' is that it PERMANENTLY eliminates the 'Sequestration' cuts which was the only thing really threatening the big automatic appropriation transfer payment programs like Social Security, Medicare etc; which just based on the retirement demographics is going to create massive increases in leading fiscal flow over the next 2 years...
So Mike is currently tracking this year fiscal as UP 7.03% at a +$268B so far; we may be looking at realizing this same magnitude of fiscal increase (+7%, +$300b) for the next two years if they ink (ALERT Art trained morons: Figurative Language, I mean if they vote to approve the 'Deal', not really spilling ink on a piece of paper...) this thing next week...
Hopefully the 'Deal' gets approval and appropriations to match and then they don't do anything else for 2 years... just do NOTHING else... we then may be able to enter into a nice 2 year period of a sort of 'benign neglect' from these people...
Hedge Fund Losses
These guys should just subscribe to Mike's report and they'd be doing a lot better financially...
Wow Bridgewater probably 25% below S&P 500 returns so far this year:
Bridgewater’s flagship Pure Alpha fund lost 4.9% in the 6 months through June, the FT reports https://t.co/iL9MAuDoB4— Bloomberg (@business) July 21, 2019
Druckenmiller also all pissed off and negative in view of the Trump budget deal so he is probably short/neutral and suffering from TDS:
Stanley Druckenmiller on budget deal: Politicians will act this way until the markets 'revolt' https://t.co/IXnPZERvOi— CNBC (@CNBC) July 23, 2019
Meanwhile Trump keeps delivering on the fiscal policy (up > 7% YoY) and has apparently goaded the Fed into lowering the policy IOR rate back down towards 2% going into his election year:
The secret to the Trump economy? More government spending (via @bopinion)https://t.co/IoJ9QwMj9x pic.twitter.com/lU0OwBplCK— Bloomberg Economics (@economics) July 24, 2019
Aaron Maté's Questions for Mueller
The quality of the alternative media is so good, and all of it ignored by our comic book MSM.
On the eve of the Robert Mueller hearings, Aaron Maté shares his top questions for the now former Special Counsel and savior figure. Read Aaron's article in The Nation: "These Questions for Mueller Show Why Russiagate Was Never the Answer"
https://www.thenation.com/article/que...
Caitlin Jonestone - The Just World Fallacy: Why People Bash Assange And Defend Power
And so Iraq is in the mess it is today because it is a bad country with bad people (poor Muslims), and not because it has always had its economy wrecked by the West, its dictators installed by the West, and then, finally, attacked and destroyed by the West. It is a 'Shithole country' .
This gives people a feeling that the world is just, and if everyone behaves themselves and are good, then everything will be just fine for them. The skilled propagandists in the West know all about this and have studied the psychology of this phenomenon for a long time. And so, the Japanese people, women and children too, 'deserved' to have atomic bombs dropped on them.
The rich imperialists of the West have done so well because they are 'extremely good', and not because they are the biggest crooks on the planet.
Chilling stuff!
Contains videos.
Caitlin Jonestone - The Just World Fallacy: Why People Bash Assange And Defend Power
Tuesday, July 23, 2019
Lars P. Syll — Arrow-Debreu and the Bourbaki illusion of rigour
It's about mathematical economics and its limitations. Don't let the title scare you off. Not at all wonkish (no math), although it helps if have some background in the controversy.
Basically, it's Plato (formalism) versus Aristotle (empiricism). Most mathematicians today are Platonists, while most scientists are Aristotelians. But that is another story.
Lars P. Syll’s Blog
Arrow-Debreu and the Bourbaki illusion of rigour
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University
Voodoo economic revisionism abounds – and it is not MMT doing the voodoo Bill Mitchell
The epithets being used as put-downs for Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) are growing. But some of the good old terms – that one might actually apply to mainstream macroeconomics – are also in currency. An article in Project Syndicate (May 27, 2019) – Japan Then, China Now – declared MMT to be “the latest strain of voodoo economics” that is “alluring for the Trump administration”. The article by a Yale University lecturing staff member (and former investment banker) really just reminds us why students should avoid studying economics at that university. The voodoo, I am afraid is actually on the other foot! There are some fundamental errors in the logic in the article that highlight why MMT is a superior paradigm for understanding how the monetary system actually operates in comparison to the mainstream logic that the author uses against it.
A related article in the right-wing National Review (July 22, 2019) – New Budget Deal Puts Final Nail in the Tea-Party Coffin – covers a similar terrain from a different perspective.
The author is bemoaning the fact that Trump has wiped out the ‘tea-party’ by breaking with the “2011 Budget Control Act”, which was the centrepiece of small-minded conservative politics a few years ago....I stopped posting articles critical of MMT here at MNE some time ago — unless the criticism is serious and informed. Why waster time on derp? However, there is almost no informed critiques and most are just rants. The only difference among the critical articles is how unserious and uninformed they are.
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
Voodoo economic revisionism abounds – and it is not MMT doing the voodoo
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
Monday, July 22, 2019
Links — 22 July 2019
MH17 EVIDENCE TAMPERING REVEALED BY MALAYSIA – FBI ATTEMPT TO SEIZE BLACK BOXES; DUTCH COVER-UP OF FORGED TELEPHONE TAPES; UKRAINIAN AIR FORCE HID RADAR RECORDS; CRASH SITE WITNESS TESTIMONY MISREPORTED
John Helmer
Trump: ‘OK’ With a War Against Iran NowJason Ditz
Geopolitika
Western NGO's: intervention in other way
Belt and Road takes a leap forward to the Gulf
M. K. Bhadrakumar | retired diplomat with the Indian Foreign Service
Tens of Thousands of Ecuadorians Join the National Strike Against Moreno
Quantum Darwinism, an Idea to Explain Objective Reality, Passes First Tests
South Korea claims ‘warning shots’ fired after Russian military aircraft ‘violated airspace’
HARPER: BELT AND ROAD--A MARSHALL PLAN WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS
China’s Investments in US Plummet by Nearly 90 Percent Under Trump - Research
Iranian Documentary Reveals How CIA Recruited Agents, Sent Equipment to Assets in Iran (Video)
President Putin’s Interview with Oliver Stone (transcript)
The Saker
Afghanistan
Trump update on his policy on the Afghanistan "war" situation.
Could kill 10 million of them in a week or so but he doesn't want to do that... sounds like he's getting out instead...
Trump is saying he has plans that could win the 18-year Afghan War in 10 days, but it would wipe Afghanistan off the face of the Earth and kill 10 million people, so he doesn't "want to go that route."
— Amee Vanderpool (@girlsreallyrule) July 22, 2019
He's teasing nuclear war like it's the next season of the Apprentice. pic.twitter.com/1x77iM3x2S
Left-wing Response to Budget Deal
Liberal Art trained on steroids AOC (ALERT: figurative language here morons, I don't actually think she is on PEDs) chiming in on cue with more figurative language in this typical form of an analogy we often see from MMT people; seemingly trying to correct the "out of money!" reification error continuously being made by the fellow Liberal Art trained moron policymakers with this analogy: "how come when we need money for [insert non-left-wing priority program here], you never see them say blah, blah, blah..?"
The employment of even more figurative language analogy like this, it appears trying to bait the other side to enter into a dialectic exchange of even more figurative language... hasn't worked.... is not working... and will never work...
You can't correct a reification error thru simply the employment of even more figurative language... you have to reverse from the figurative back towards the literal... (if you actually understand the literal..)
Notice how whenever we pursue large spending increases + tax cuts for corporations, contractors & the connected, it’s treated as business as usual.— Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (@AOC) July 22, 2019
But the moment we consider investing similar💰 in working class people (ex tuition-free college) they cry out it’s “unrealistic.” https://t.co/aypyYps9pM
Make an adjustment already... OR ... continue to keep doing the same thing and expecting a different result... (TIP: its never going to happen...)
Budget Deal Struck
Art of the Deal:
I am pleased to announce that a deal has been struck with Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, and House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy - on a two-year Budget and Debt Ceiling, with no poison pills....
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) July 22, 2019
Mike's initial take:
RT — Venezuela blames nationwide blackout on ‘electromagnetic attack’
Preliminary probe into the incident has suggested the “existence of an electromagnetic attack that sought to affect the hydroelectric generation system of Guayana, the main provider of this service in the country,” the minister told state channel VTV.
While authorities are struggling to resolve the crisis, the US-backed opposition leader Juan Guaido has used the power outage to once again attack his political opponent, accusing President Maduro of “destroying” the country's electrical system....What might the commonality be (if any) among Venezuela, Nacaragua, Cuba, Ukraine, Crimea, Georgia, Nordstream 2, Hong Kong, Xinjiang Autonomous Region, North Korea, Iran and Cold War 2? They all involve countries that the US considers adversaries or competitors challenging US global hegemony.
RT
Venezuela blames nationwide blackout on ‘electromagnetic attack’
Incentivizing an Ethical Economics — Simon Szreter, Hilary Cooper and Ben Szreter
Naked Capitalism
Incentivizing an Ethical Economics
Godfree Roberts on China
The Fall of the Economists' Empire — Robert Skidelsky
The problem is not so much with the modeling, actually. People are free to construct any models that please for whatever reason. The problem is with the conclusions that are drawn from the model when they exceed the limitations of the of the assumptions.
This is not a problem with modeling but with logic. Drawing conclusions that exceed the scope and scale of the premises in a context other than the model is flat out illogical, and any inferences drawn on this basis are unsound, that is, do not follow from the premises of the argument and the reasoning about them.
Models don't automatically transfer to the world that they purport to model. This is a fundamental of scientific method. Semantic interpretation is required, along with methodological rigor, and hypothesis testing is necessary.
Project Syndicate
The Fall of the Economists' Empire
Robert Skidelsky | Professor Emeritus of Political Economy at Warwick University, fellow of the British Academy in history and economics, member of the British House of Lords, and author of a three-volume biography of John Maynard Keynes
ht Lars Syll
Dr. Gabor Maté: Antisemitism Allegations Against Jeremy Corbyn 'COMPLETE AND UTTER NONSENSE!'
We speak to Dr. Gabor Maté on the Tory leadership election and his opinion on favourite-to-win Boris Johnson, Anti-Semitism allegations against Jeremy Corbyn, crimes of Israel against Palestinians, capitalism and its creation of social problems, the Democratic Party and how it lost to Donald Trump and how it uses Russiagate to escape responsibility for their loss and how mainstream media limits debate.
Moon of Alabama - Ukraine Election - Voters Defeat Second Color Revolution
The U.S., supported by the EU, used this split - twice - to instigate 'revolutions' that were supposed to bring the Ukraine onto a 'western' course. Both attempts were defeated when the Ukrainians had the chance of a free vote.
Moon of Alabama - Ukraine Election - Voters Defeat Second Color Revolution
The Secret Sources of Populism — Bruno Maçães
The IMF Program in Ecuador: A New Report by Mark Weisbrot — Matias Vernengo
As they discuss the new candidate for the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and it seems that the lead candidate for Lagarde's position is the former Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, a pro-austerity member of the Labor Party (which I guess is at least nominally on the left), it is worth reading the new CEPR report on the possible effects of IMF programs in Latin America, more specifically the one in Ecuador, now that the country has been brought back into the fold of well-behaved nations (after expelling Assange from their London embassy, in the post-Correa period)....Naked Keynesianism — Hemlock for economics students
The IMF Program in Ecuador: A New Report by Mark Weisbrot
Matias Vernengo | Associate Professor of Economics, Bucknell University
Megatrends are reshaping the globe, here's what your business can do to ride the wave — Greg McKenna
Hindsight also makes it possible to see the signals that were missed by the major political powers of Europe, but which precipitated the First World War. It also seems possible to see the changes the climate is rendering right now. And, if we pay enough attention, perhaps we can identify in real time the emergence of trends that will remake the world we live in the next year, the next decade, and 30 years from now.Business Insider Australia
We might notice: Modern Monetary Theory, the rise of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the globe’s aging population, the emergence of AI, and the acceleration of climate change, and the new movement to push back against it and what many see as corporate greed.
These and many other trends — nascent or emerging — have been years in the making and no doubt, in the future, we’ll look back and wonder why the obvious was missed by today’s leaders in business and politics.
Megatrends are reshaping the globe, here's what your business can do to ride the wave
Economists question Japan's planned consumption tax hike — Eri Sugiura
But the impact of the tax hike on the economy remains uncertain, and numerous experts have already said it may lead to further stagnation. The country is in the middle of an economic downturn, they say, and the tax increase will only worsen low inflation.
Some U.S. scholars agree. "Taxes are for subtraction and to remove spending power from someone," said Stephanie Kelton, a professor of economics and public policy at Stony Brook University. Kelton, a leading MMT advocate, criticized the planned tax increase in a speech given in Tokyo last week. "If you are not currently experiencing an inflation problem -- and you are not -- then [raising] the consumption tax does not make economic sense to me."
MMT encourages government to run a deficit and print money as long as it does not overheat the economy. If inflation begins to emerge, it can be mitigated by cutting government spending and increasing taxes. But other than that, the government should spend on economic stimulus programs to increase employment as much as possible.Nikkei Asian Review
Economists question Japan's planned consumption tax hike
There are no financial risks involved in increased British government spending — Bill Mitchell
On July 26, 2018, UK Guardian columnist Phillip Inman published an article – Household debt in UK ‘worse than at any time on record’ – which reported on the latest figures at the time from the Office of National Statistics (ONS). He noted that the data showed that “British households spent around £900 more on average than they received in income during 2017, pushing their finances into deficit for the first time since the credit boom of the 1980s … The figures pose a challenge to the government … Britain’s consumer credit bubble of more than £200bn was unsustainable. A dramatic rise in debt-fuelled spending since 2016” and more. While keen to tell the readers that British households were “living beyond their means”, there was not a single mention of the fiscal austerity drive being pursued by the British government over the same period. Nor was there mention of the fact that the entire British fiscal strategy since the Tories took office was predicated, as I pointed out years ago in this blog post – I don’t wanna know one thing about evil (April 29, 2011), on this debt binge continuing. A year later (July 20, 2019), the same columnist published this article – Labour and Tories both plan to borrow and spend. Is that wise? – which like its predecessor fails to present a comprehensive, linked-up, analysis for his readers and makes basis macroeconomic errors along the way.
The latest article is attacking both the variously announced intentions of the British Labour Party and the Tory government to increase net public spending....Bill Mitchell – billy blog
There are no financial risks involved in increased British government spending
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia