Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Chart: Federal Expenditures (and Receipts)

Chart below from BEA data which depicts Federal expenditures, broken down into consumption and transfer payment components.




You can see the nice upward slope that took place during the 8 years of the GW Bush administration due to things like 'No child left behind', 'Medicare Rx drugs', 'GWOT/Homeland Security', while the Obama administration is characterized by that one-time substantial 2009 increase due to the 'stimulus' (mainly comprised of a big increase in Transfers) and then a flatline for the next 3 years depicted here (and currently).

Hence the economic stagnation characterized by the paltry 1%-ish GDP growth we've been experiencing during this same period of flatlining Federal government topline expenditures.

I've included the data on "receipts" so all of our out of paradigm "deficit spending" readers can monitor that series concurrently here so you don't feel left out... but a reminder there: Government SPENDS FIRST and THEN collects the taxes (eventually, whenever....who cares...).

Seems we have been stuck here at the approximate $3.7T topline number that the BEA has compiled, which is enabling an economy that can still produce about 1% measured domestic production growth and mid-single digit growth in corporate profits.

This BEA $3.7T topline Federal spending number is leading to S&P 500 earnings reportedly on target for about $1T this year, with reportedly about half of these earnings from US domestic operations of those firms.

For now, as long as the US government at least will maintain this $3.7T topline, and global governments continue to do about the same, it looks like we will be able to at least continue to 'tread water' (being kind here) in real terms, and continue to fill the S&P corporate coffers with an additional $1T equivalent every year.


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