Thursday, July 11, 2013

The political importance of currency sovereignty

Although it should seem obvious, the ability of democratic governments to issue their own currency is perhaps the most important thing any government does. Economic models that apply to fixed exchange rate currencies simply do not apply to floating currencies, a point that many economists seem to have tragically missed. For some reason, even smart economists like Paul Krugman have been "surprised" that currency sovereigns operate under completely different economic realities than pegged or non-sovereigns do. The reality is that the loanable funds and money multiplier models simply do not apply to currency sovereigns, nor should they.

The ability to issue its own fiat currency is critical to the ability of any government to make public policy for its citizens, and thus is a crucial element to any nation that claims to be a democratic sovereign. Surrendering currency sovereignty, as Argentina did in the 1990's, and the Eurozone nations did in 1999, is an enormous leap away from democratic sovereignty. Any government that does so significantly weakens its ability to move real resources around its country to maximize utility for its citizens (Argentina's currency board basically turned the country into an internationally-financed Ponzi scheme). The importance of this seems to have been greatly under appreciated during the 1990's and 2000's, when countries in Europe were falling all over themselves to join the Euro and abandon their currency sovereignty. And although the British economy has faced its own challenges from misguided policies of the Cameron government, they can at least congratulate themselves on having had the restraint to stay the hell away from the Euro.

Now the Eurozone has been stuck in nearly 6 years of disastrous depression, with sky high unemployment levels and continually contracting economies. The only option sufficient to restore growth, namely default and devaluation from the periphery countries (Portugal, Italy, Spain, Greece, or the PIGS) has been considered Verboten by the policy elite that have been so disastrously ruling Europe. The so called "Troika" of the European Central Bank, the European Commission, and the IMF, have been unbelievably bad economic policymakers, for the precise reasons that they don't understand the benefits of currency sovereignty, have considered default a non-option, and refuse to ever admit their errors. (As a GW student, I regularly walk by the IMF building and witness the international house  of (t)errors of European bankers standing outside and smoking cigarettes in their $2500 Italian suits.)

The callously indifferent responses of these policymakers to the ever growing demonstrations of discontent in the EU have been equally disturbing. This response suggests that in the future, a country that gives up its currency might as well also dissolve its legislature and end elections. Such structures have very little use in countries without their own currencies, because countries that are constrained by foreign central banks or arbitrary debt/gdp ratios simply cannot meet the economic needs of their citizens, especially during times of economic difficulty. Relying on foreign investment or bond market "confidence" to boost an economy has proven to be an incredibly difficult, if not impossible proposition. No government that calls itself politically sovereign can really be so if their economic output is determined by the whims of foreign investors.

36 comments:

Anonymous said...

The callously indifferent responses of these policymakers to the ever growing demonstrations of discontent in the EU have been equally disturbing. This response suggests that in the future, a country that gives up its currency might as well also dissolve its legislature and end elections.

That doesn't follow, Justin. It's like saying that the State of Maryland should give up its legislature and end elections because it also lacks currency sovereignty. Lack of currency sovereignty limits the options available to a democratic government. But it doesn't render that government utterly irrelevant.

The governments of the individual EZ countries still make many very important political decisions on a daily basis and are responsible for carrying out an immense number of social tasks requiring ongoing democratic input.

There are still many economic options available to a country that depends on an externally managed currency. If they can't take advantage of the deficit expansion and interest rate controls currency sovereigns have available, they will just have to tax the piss out of the rentier class to fund state-directed expansion and full employment programs.

Anonymous said...

I'd say that a sovereign government which chooses to adopt a fixed exchange rate still has the option to abandon it if they want to, so it's not really a constraint in that sense.

The problem for eurozone countries is that they have signed all sorts of treaties and joined a supranational state in which they have given up many of their sovereign powers. They can't get out of it by simply unpegging their currency. They can only get out of it by breaking the treaties, withdrawing from the union and, in the case of their currency, starting from scratch.

Anonymous said...

Dan, I think that's made a lot more difficult by the very nature of a currency union, where money can literally drain out of one country and into another. In the case of a single national currency zone, the money can essentially 'never leave', except in someone's suitcase perhaps. It just bounces around inside the country.

So if the Greek government decided to massively raise taxes on a portion of the economy to try and reduce its budget deficit, this might potentially lead to massive outflows of funds from the economy. In a single national currency system, the equivalent would be a fall in the exchange rate, as people sold the national currency for foreign currencies.

In the former case (outflows of funds) there would be no counterbalancing expansionary effect - money would simply leave the country and the deficit (and interest rates) could continue to increase. In the case of a falling exchange rate however, you could have the counterbalancing effect of relatively cheaper prices leading to an inward expansion of demand.

PeterP said...

I like these comments by Justin Santopietro - very concise, well argued, to the point and well written.

Anonymous said...

What happened to my comment?

Anonymous said...

y, that's true. But it's no different than a US state.

The difference is that a US state can appeal to - and make deals in - the US fiscal union, as represented by the US Congress, for some kind of assistance and aid.

Europe needs a fiscal union. For some reason the MMT community seems Europhobic on the whole, always arguing for increased fragmentation in Europe instead of increased union.

Anonymous said...

your comment just evaporated. It's a glitch in the matrix.

Jose Guilherme said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Anonymous said...

I'm undecided on what the ideal route forward is for eurozone countries in trouble. The main problem with the EU as it currently exists is that it seems like a sham democracy. Perhaps it could transform into a United States of Europe, but then again is genuine democracy on such a vast scale really feasible?

Jose Guilherme said...

Europe needs a fiscal union. For some reason the MMT community seems Europhobic on the whole, always arguing for increased fragmentation in Europe instead of increased union

It's likely because the MMT community has a realistic approach to the affairs of the eurozone - where the desire of TPTB to have a true union with automatic transfers among its members is simply non existent.

The euro project was always highly elitist and hostile to democracy. It's neoliberalism at its "best". The original idea was to concentrate power in unelected bodies, especially the all powerful currency issuer, the ECB. The so-called "European left", either out of ignorance on matters concerning money or downright infiltration by "reactionary elements" (as Portugal's - left-leaning, socialist - former President, Mario Soares, put it in a recent interview to Brazilian media) swallowed the concept of an independent ECB lock, stock and barrel. We can all witness the consequences now.

The whole scheme has been working fantastically well from the elites' POV. Governments are powerless because they lost monetary sovereignty - if the "markets" turn against them they have no CB to support the formerly risk-free nature of govt. debt. In order to pay their bills, they must thus seek support from the "troikas" or from the ECB, whose price for "help" is always savage austerity for the countries concerned.

But the legitimacy of the system is rotten at the core. It promised prosperity to the masses - yet it's giving them higher taxes, unemployment and cuts in essential services instead. This cannot last forever.

One day a country will decide it's taken enough of the austerity medicine and will just say no to the EC/ECB. Perhaps by unilaterally adopting a stimulus package (say, via massive tax credits) or putting a state-owned bank in charge of financing the government through massive bond purchases. And maybe, just maybe, it will be then shown that the emperor has no clothes and that one single "No !" will be enough to signal the beginning of the end for autocracy in the eurozone.

Tom Hickey said...

Dan K "What happened to my comment?"

It went into spam for some reason. I just fished it out, along with a couple of others I hadn't seen.

Anonymous said...

It's likely because the MMT community has a realistic approach to the affairs of the eurozone - where the desire of TPTB to have a true union with automatic transfers among its members is simply non existent.

But also the desire to go backward toward a continent of separate sovereign nations is also not strong. Many Europeans tend to regard their union as a heroic, historic triumph over centuries of war and international rivalry and strife. So they are stuck for now. My guess though is that over time they will gradually develop new institutions for more unified fiscal action. A lot of European thinkers are also heavily involved in the new thinking on innovative forms of participatory democracy.

I think it's a bad idea for Americans to go around preaching currency sovereignty or any other kind of neo-nationalism to Europeans. They have been at the nationalism game a lot longer than Americans have, and have more bitter and educated memories of its pitfalls.

Anonymous said...

Tom, it's probably because I used the word "piss".

Anonymous said...

Dan, what you say is true. I'm in the UK and like aspects of the EU, but I really hate the euro with a vengeance. Probably because it has been set up as a fundamentally antidemocratic and regressive institution. My guess is that whilst the 'progressives' were all slapping themselves on the back and congratulating themselves for 'guaranteeing peace and social progress in europe', Hayekian types were in the background quietly laying the foundation for their demise: the euro.

Anonymous said...

The Eurozone doesn't need to have a grand constitutional convention or remake their whole system in order to carry out a centralized emergency fiscal project and social investment initiative. All they need to do is call an emergency meeting. They should direct the ECB to mark up each EZ government's general account by some established number of Euros. Perhaps they can use a formula based on the country's population size and unemployment rate. It doesn't have to be a fancy formula.

I'm not talking about a loan from the ECB. I'm talking about simply crediting the accounts outright with no debt issuance. This might drive the ECB into a condition of negative equity. That would be fine. There is no reason in the universe why a true central bank needs to have positive equity. The whole idea of financial "assets" and "liabilities" in the case of a central bank is a conventional fiction in any case.

They should then direct the Bundesnbank ... um, I mean the ECB - to abandon its present inflation target so that they don't undermine the expansion.

Make the credit really big, and then let the governments go to work.

Anonymous said...

one coin to bring them all, and in the darkness bind them..

Anonymous said...

I didn't know Mosler and Pilkington collaborated on this paper:

TAX-BACKED BONDS—A NATIONAL SOLUTION TO THE EUROPEAN DEBT CRISIS
http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/pn_12_04.pdf

The Just Gatekeeper said...

Dan,

Yes my claim was a bit of an exaggeration. I guess it stems from my observance of the hopelessness across the pond. Although I think it is politically worse to have been a currency issuer and lost it, than to have always been the user, like US states. The EU countries used to have much more policy room and capacity for self determination. US states in my opinion, function mainly as agents of the US government since they are so revenue constrained and their laws are preempted by federal ones.

The Rombach Report said...

What happened to my comment?"

Maybe the NSA didn't approve?

Matt Franko said...

Just,

I remember driving down to the teach-in Joe Firestone set up at GWU back in 2010 and didnt really know (exactly) where I was going and hit Pennsylvania Ave and looked up and saw the IMF!

How ironic I thought!

What a Taj Mahal...

!!!!!!!!

"$2500 Italian suits"

At least they are helping the Italians with their external deficit... ;)

Keep 'em coming... rsp,

Matt Franko said...

"economic output is determined by the whims of foreign investors..."

I would add it cannot be determined by a nations ability to happen upon mass measures of metals from column 11 the Periodic Table of the Elements either....

Take that metal-lovers you morons!

rsp,

The Rombach Report said...

"US states in my opinion, function mainly as agents of the US government since they are so revenue constrained and their laws are preempted by federal ones."

Just Gatekeeper - Ever heard of nullification? A growing number of states are passing legislation to make null and void Federal laws regarding such issues as medical marijuana, second amendment rights and the Affordable Health Care Act.

Tom Hickey said...

Ever heard of nullification?

It was the assertion of states rights that ultimately led to the Civil War. Some people apparently want to test the waters again. This time I'd say cut 'em loose.

Jose Guilherme said...

All they need to do is call an emergency meeting

You're forgetting class analysis.

The EU/eurozone is not exactly a pure philosophical construct undertaken by idealistic European thinkers who wanted to strive for the "general good" of the population. That kind of stuff does not exist in real life societies.

Instead, it's a construct to serve the elites. And the argument that it has stopped war on the continent is laughable. Western Europe, the core of the old EC, has been under US occupation since 1945 (under the clever cover of NATO) so any "war" would have to be previously authorized by the Americans. That means it ain't gonna happen. Fortunately, the period of history when European nations could launch "great wars" for hegemony on the continent is gone forever, with or without the presence of a European Union.

Anonymous said...

Fortunately, the period of history when European nations could launch "great wars" for hegemony on the continent is gone forever, with or without the presence of a European Union.

That's naive. War never becomes obsolete. Even if Europe reverted to stone age conditions, they would still have the ability to fight each other with rocks, spears and arrows.

Anonymous said...

I'm in favor of giving the libertarians all the pot they want. Then at least they might forget where they put their guns. And if they spend a lot more time high on the couch eating chocolate pudding, they will have less time left over for wrecking the social contract.

The Rombach Report said...

"It was the assertion of states rights that ultimately led to the Civil War. Some people apparently want to test the waters again. This time I'd say cut 'em loose."

OK Tom, I'll take the bait. Here is a passage from Jefferson Davis's farewell speech. And just in case you are wondering, I am not a fan of his.

"Nullification and secession, so often confounded, are indeed antagonistic principles. Nullification is a remedy which it is sought to apply within the Union, and against the agent of the States, (i.e. Federal government). It is only to be justified when the agent has violated his constitutional obligation, and a State, assuming to judge for itself, denies the right of the agent thus to act, and appeals to the other States of the Union for a decision;"

The Rombach Report said...

"I'm in favor of giving the libertarians all the pot they want. Then at least they might forget where they put their guns"

Dan - That's funny!

Anonymous said...

There is zero constitutional basis for nullification. Zero. Secessionist traitors notwithstanding.

Tom Hickey said...

Nullification is trumped by the Constitution's supremacy clause

Jose Guilherme said...

War never becomes obsolete

In the nuclear age, total war has certainly become obsolete.

Anyway, you totally missed my point which was about the old European powers having lost the capacity to wage wars for hegemony because the US has become the one and only hegemon on the continent since 1945.

The Rombach Report said...

"Nullification is trumped by the Constitution's supremacy clause"

That's true unless Federal law is deemed to be unconstitutional. Twenty six states have nullified Federal prohibitions on medical marijuana to one degree or another while Colorado and Washington State have repealed prohibition altogether. The Obama administration appears to be acquiescing on this issue in these states which is probably is a good example of how U.S. Federalism is designed to work. In effect we have 50 different laboratories experimenting on social, economic and political policy where presumably the best models will prevail and be emulated. Nullification is not secession. It's simply a way for states to push back against the Federal government when it impinges on the 10th Amendment rights of the states.

The Rombach Report said...

"That's naive. War never becomes obsolete. Even if Europe reverted to stone age conditions, they would still have the ability to fight each other with rocks, spears and arrows."

How true!

“I know not with what weapons World War III will be fought, but World War IV will be fought with sticks and stones.” ― Albert Einstein

Anonymous said...

why do you always put your quotes of other people's comments in bold?

The Rombach Report said...

"why do you always put your quotes of other people's comments in bold?"

y - It's just a matter of style and format. I like the way it looks. I think it helps differentiate someone else's comment from my own.

Tom Hickey said...

+That's true unless Federal law is deemed to be unconstitutional."

That's true, and historically the courts have favored federalism.