How many times do we have to say it? Matt and I have been saying over and over and over that these deficit-based forecasts are stubborn and wrong and it's all about the flows. And we've been right.
With $4-trillion-plus and rising (year-over-year) there won't be recession. Slow growth, perhaps, and that's because of the drag from lower capex in the energy sector, however, it's being offset by higher consumption.
The deficit-based forecasters have been wrong for three years running. If, five years from now, the economy goes into recession because of some unrelated reason, are all of you going to say that the deficit-based forecasters "called" it?